The Weekend Wager from Secret Betting Club

April 15, 2011 by  
Filed under News

Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced by the Secret Betting Club.

Each and every Friday through this column we bring together some of the finest experts to give you betting tips, advice and guidance for the next 7 days..

1. Mike Says..

In this column, Secret Betting Club co-editor and professional gambler Mike Bishop discusses some of the weeks most topical betting issues.

It’s back to normality betting wise this weekend after the double header of the racing’s Grand National and Golf’s master’s weekend. If you were involved, I hope you managed to pick up some profit from the giant field in both events.

We asked some of the tipsters we proof to put up a tip each for the National, with ourselves acting as charity bookmaker and donating £1 per bet (ignoring losses) to Cancer Research.

Well done to Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman Racing who picked the winner Ballabriggs at 14/1 EW. The tipsters also covered all but one of the placed horses, with successes including Northern Monkey tipping Niche Market at 18/1 (5th), Winning Racing Tips picking State of Play at 25/1 and our Pro Gambler PCB picking Oscar time at 12/1 (2nd).

We bumped things up a little to make it £1 each way so a total of £28.25 was donated to Cancer Research. Thanks to all the tipsters who contributed.

In Play Profits

One of the biggest growth areas for betting this year has been in-play football betting and you may well have noticed the likes of Bet365 and Betfair falling over themselves to advertise their own in-play options.

What they are keen to do is take advantage of emotionally charged and split second decisions bets as a game is in full swing, knowing that most punters won’t make a profit betting this way. On the contrary though as in our latest released issue – SBC 59 we reported back on the first football tipster taking on these live in-play bookies and making a profit doing so.

This particular tipster has set-up a really easy to use way of following his live bets, with a betting window during a game where you get text and audio alerts as soon as he puts up a bet. From his first 111 live bets he has made a 24.41 pt profit, which equates to a 17.19% profit on turnover (For every £100 staked, you make a profit of £17.19).

We only foresee more tipsters doing this in future as well, taking advantage of the fact the bookie has to make rash decisions on odds, where sometimes a shrewd gambler can find value bets.

Find out more here…..
For those looking to take matters into their own hands, then Bettor Logic’s Form Lab Black is a highly recommended research tool for spotting useful in play positions.

Simple Soccer Stat’s Half time/ full time component can also yield some interesting results. For example:

  • Arsenal have been winning at half time in 67% of their away matches this season.
  • At home, Manchester United have been winning at half time in 15 of their home games so far and failed to win from this position just once.
  • Away from home, Chelsea have drawn 7 matches at half time and converted just two of these half time draws into full time wins.

Racing trades
Its not just football where you can bet as an event is in-play and one of the most popular sports for this is Horse Racing, where the odds change as the race unfolds.

With Horse Racing though the odds can swing even before the race starts with market moves for different horses meaning that combining pre-race and in-play trading on the right horses can be profitable if you know what you are doing.

One person who does know is Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman service, who has been making great returns via his racing trading approach, taking pre-race and in-play bets and lays to lock in guaranteed profit. What’s more he is now sharing his method for free on our members’ forum for the next 2 months.

To explain his method, just yesterday at 10.39 am he advised a £50 win bet on Dashwood in the 9.15 at Kempton at 11/2. Then at 8.04pm, Dashwood had shrunk in price (as Scott foresaw) and he advised a £105 lay at the current odds of 3.1 with Betfair.

This left a guaranteed profit regardless of whether Dashwood won or lost. A win for the horse would have meant a profit of £54.50, but if it lost we would be £55 up (before commission). As it turned out Dashwood won quite easily as 7/4 favourite and £54.50 was our total profit on the race.

On some occasions, Scott will also recommend an in-play lay as well to help try and firm up other profits, but on this occasion the profits were locked in before the race started.

The reason I am sharing this is that we have agreed an exclusive deal with Scott for him to list all his racing trades up on our Secret Betting Club member’s forum for FREE until June this year. The idea being to allow all SBC members to familiarise themselves with his profitable trading method as an added bonus from us all!

Scott will also be detailing in full his racing trading strategy in an exclusive article to be released in SBC 60, out at the end of April.

If you want to sample this, sign up for instant membership by visiting Secret Betting Club

Until next week…
Mike Bishop

The Latest Tipsters, Systems & Strategies Revealed

The very latest issue of the Secret Betting Club newsletter is out NOW and features everything you need to know about making money betting including…

  • The ‘Marmite’ horse racing tipping & information service that has returned £37.80 for every £100 staked since it launched. Some love it, some hate it, so this months in depth review is a must read.
  • Our final word on the All By The Book racing system. Does it make a profit? And if so, what are the real risks with this system? Read the truth about it through our independent review.
  • The latest stats on our free racing system – the ‘4 Pronged Attack’ basic system that each new subscriber to SBC has access to. Winners this month included Al Feroz at 25/1, Alarazi at 14/1 and Junior at 7/1 amongst others.
  • Ever hit a losing run and given up just before things recover? Our guide to betting returns helps put winning and losing runs into perspective.

Sign up today to access all this and more risk free with our 100% money back guarantee at Secret Betting Club

2. Mike’s Football Bets

Mike analyses the forthcoming football betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value. This is part of a season-long experiment to see the likely returns from such an approach and to build up a public record.

We enjoyed a bumper return last weekend with all 3 Main bets winning to really boost the seasonal figures as we enter the last month or so of action. There are only 6 games to choose from in the Premier League this weekend with the FA Cup Semi-Finals at Wembley and there isn’t a huge amount of value out there as far as I can see. I have just one Main and one Shortlist bet for this weekend as so many of the teams playing are inconsistent, injury-prone or just priced up pretty well by the bookmakers.

My one main bet is down at the Emirates this Sunday where Arsenal host Liverpool in game likely to be over-shadowed by the Bolton – Stoke City fixture the same day (not a statement I often expect to write). I think the bookies have under-estimated the chances of goals here and the 1.95 on over 2.5 goals looks to be a shade too big judging by the evidence (Even the next best odds of 1.91 still look far too big). We all know that Arsenal haven’t been firing of late but they have still seen 42 goals in their 15 home games and gone past the overs mark 56% of the time. We also have similar stats for Liverpool and looking at the relatively soft defence for both sides I think we should see goals. Whether its Lehmann or Almunia in nets for the Gunners, Suarez, Carroll et al will test them a lot more than Blackpool did, whilst Liverpool at the back have injuries and are missing a number of key defenders. Kenny Dalglish has not been able to settle on a winning away formula for his new charges and defeats away at WBA and West Ham lately reflect that.

My only shortlist bet is again in the over 2.5 goals market and features a favoured team of mine for this bet – West Ham who are far from convincing defensively as they have proven in recent weeks. The bookies are slowly cottoning on but still odds of 1.86 on over 2.5 goals in their home game against Villa looks too high for me. Both these teams have seen over 3 goals on average per game home and away respectively and I make the chance of this bet greater than then 53.7% chance that odds of 1.86 implies.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Arsenal V Liverpool. 1.95 Betsson. Next best 1.91 Pinnacle/Canbet/188bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Aston Villa. 1.86 Pinnacle/12Bet

All odds correct at time of release on SBC Blog

Just to clarify, although we have members and some tipsters providing some free tips and systems, we are primarily a review service. Please dont expect miracles or read too much into this experiment!

3. A Sporting Chance

Scott Armstrong is The Sportsman who provides his regular expert betting advice on a range of sports such as Darts, Racing & Football. Each week via this column you can find his latest betting insight and expect some advice in fairly untapped markets – his speciality!

Every week in the Premier League darts Stan James ask the question “who will score the highest three dart average of the eight players on the night?”. You don’t often see Phil Taylor priced at evens in any market and my first consideration was: is he of value in this particular market? It seemed a reasonable price given that Taylor, on his game can average scores none of the other players can live with. Over the last three league seasons and the first ten weeks of this years competition Taylor has came out on top in the market on 27 occasions from 52. A very, very slight advantage in taking the evens on offer. I then decided to have a look at the rest of the players and their true odds and here’s what I found.

Who Has Hit The Highest Weekly 3 dart average in the Premier League seasons 2008-2011

Phil Taylor 27 weeks from 52 weeks played
James Wade 7 weeks from 52 weeks played
Adrian Lewis 6 weeks from 38 weeks played
Raymond van Barneveld 4 weeks from 52 weeks played
Simon Whitlock 2 weeks from 24 weeks played
Gary Anderson 1 week from 10 weeks played
Mark Webster 1 week from 10 weeks played
Terry Jenkins 1 week from 52 weeks played

Taking those figures I then looked at the Stan James prices on offer for Week 10’s round of games played last night and calculated the true odds from the percentages players have won the market each week.

Phil Taylor: Stan James price evens, true odds evens
James Wade: Stan James price 16-1, true odds 13-2
Adrian Lewis: Stan James price 7-1, true odds 11-2
Raymond van Barneveld: Stan James price 7-1, true odds 11-1
Simon Whitlock: Stan James price 7-1, true odds 11-1
Gary Anderson: Stan James price 6-1, true odds 9-1
Mark Webster: Stan James price 16-1, true odds 9-1
Terry Jenkins: Stan James price 16-1 , true odds 50-1

In summation James Wade is hugely overpriced at 16-1 although he hasn’t came out on top in this market since the 2010 League. League debutants Webster and Anderson offer less matches for study having played in only ten apiece and although Webster’s true odds offer value, his confidence has rapidly diminished as he sits bottom of the table. Adrian Lewis is inconsistent but offers a little value. Those to ignore in this market include Anderson, Whitlock, van Barneveld and Terry Jenkins with the latter’s stats being woeful.


The A to Z of Tipster & System Reviews

Check out the new look Secret Betting Club website, which now features a full A to Z list of many of the tipsters we have reviewed and analysed.

Our latest reviews include: All By The Book, Bet Advisor, On The Nose, Northern Monkey, Green Sports Bets, Adys Lay of The Day, NFL Linebacker, Bet Devil, Packed Pockets, Bet Soft Pro, Bettor Logic.

There is also plenty written about Football Value, Signature Racing Tips, Simplebet, The Market Examiner, Herbie Fogg, Sportyy, Tipster 365, The Punter Club, Lee Bollingbroke & The Nagman

f you cant find a review on the service you are interested in, simply enter their name into the search the site box – chances are we have featured them in the past.

Visit here for more info: Secret Betting Club

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo provide English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier ratings and systems. Using their own in-house systems to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

Here are my thoughts on a number of weekend matches. They put the selected games into perspective and show how the Winabobatoo ratings offer guidance on where the potential profits are. If you have thoughts, views and opinions on football, the ratings will help guide you away from potential losing bets and point you in the direction of the profitable ones.

Full members have received 77 magazines this season, giving match ratings details for 2153 games in all leagues down to the Conference and SPL.

Everton v Blackburn 1.75

All the ratings significantly favour Everton. Blackburn are in the bottom three on the Winabob ratings.
Everton have been a bit vulnerable in front of goal this season but they’ve scored 26 in 16 home games.

Blackburn have let in 38 in 16 away games. There have been 90 home teams in the Premiership this season that have had a positive value rating. Everton are +9. Those 90 games show:

Bets: 90, Win 49 (54%), Returns 107.48, Profit +17.48, ROI +19.42%. Positive home value ratings in the Premiership are a good place to be.

Here’s an amazing stat for you…backing the draw in those 90 games has returned:
Bets: 90, Draws 29 (32%), Returns 105.29, Profit +15.29, ROI +16.99%.

I’m not particularly a fan of backing the draw but on this evidence my preferred bet would be to have 2 ½ points on a home win, and one point on the draw (3.75). As long as Blackburn don’t win, you’ll make a profit.

Exeter v Leyton Orient 2.50

Leyton Orient had a good run not too long ago. They went a while unbeaten. The ratings weren’t very impressed with their form and they don’t look anything better than average. I don’t think there’s much to chose between these two teams. Exeter are in better form though and the Short-Form rating favours them too. We’d need Exeter to win 40% of the time to break even. I’d put their chance a bit higher than that – probably around 45%, which would mean 10% profit. Exeter is a bet for me.

Fleetwood v Altrincham 1.50

Fleetwood are in the last play-off place at the moment and Altrincham are two points away from getting out of a relegation spot. This could be a bit of a dog-fight and resemble a Cup Tie. Altrincham have lost 14 out of 21 on their travels whilst Fleetwood have won 10 out of 21 at home.

Fleetwood are too vulnerable for me to think 1.50 is a value price. They lost at home to lowly Eastbourne. They’ve drawn against Histon too and those clubs are filling the bottom two spots in the division. This is definitely not one for me.

Visit The Winabobatoo Website


5. Putting For Profit

Ian Richards runs Sportsbettingindex.com, a betting portal which includes an odds comparison site, free tips and betting blog – helping the punter for the last 10 years.

European/Asian – Volvo China Open
PGA – The Heritage Harbour Town
Champions – Liberty Mutuals Legends
LPGA – Tres Marias Championship

The European Tour continues its worldly travels next week pitching up in China, but sadly it is yet another new course for the tour. It never ceases to amaze me where all the money comes from for these new courses in China – they are huge complexes with millions of pounds spent on them, all hoping they will draw in the “golf tourist dollar” in the future but it really doesn’t help those of us who bet on these events! Many of the big players will have been paid a small fortune to turn up – it doesn’t necessarily follow that they will play well.

On the other hand the PGA turns up for yet another year at Harbour Town – a unique course which benefit’s the shorter more accurate player on tour rather than the bombers for a change. Course form does seem to be important, although Cink (2000) Coceres (2001) and Lonard (2005) all won on their debuts and Baddeley (2006) had missed the cut on his only other visit. Yet, to counter these, last year’s winner Furyk had twice been second, Weekley won back to back, Cink has won twice and Davis Love III no less than five times – it does seem to be one of those courses that once you have mastered it then you could well do again. Personally, I think the key to finding the winner at Harbour Town is to find a player who has been in great form so far this year, as virtually all winners had at least a couple of top ten finishes already that season.

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  • The 4 Pronged Attack Racing System. Totally free to follow, this method was one of the very best racing systems out there in 2010. You can now also get the system qualifiers sent via email free!
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6. Testing The Fink Tank

Dan Jones from SBC has been testing out the free football Fink Tank ratings all season with promising results so far. Each week via this column he highlights the latest value bets according to the ratings.

Here are the latest value bets according to the latest Fink Tank Ratings. You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model.

For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

Last week was a pretty good performance last week with some great value on offer to return 5.05 points profit.

This weeks bets:

Things don’t look so easy this week. Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The West Brom Chelsea game is a Chelsea/ West Brom (12) Double Chance, the same as laying the draw

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Club could help you.

7. The Friday Freebie

It seems that Mr WILLIAM HILL is on a mission. A mission to give us as many risk free opportunities as we can shake a rather large stick at. OK these are not free sports bets as we saw last year but they are risk free offers on the casino / games and bingo areas of their site. In fact these are proving even more profitable than the football ones from last season!

In our opinion this is everything an offer should be, quick, easy to do and a risk free shot at netting some profit, in some cases some rather big profits.

Don’t believe us, well take a look at some winning screenshots from some of the recent deals, which we regularly feature on our TWITTER page (@bet72), just click below. You can get a full list of the current offers there too…
http://bet72.com/latest-free-bets/william-hill-risk-free-offers/

These were all risk free offers i.e. stake £5 or £10, if you lose get the stake back, if you win you keep it all, perfect!

So in an attempt give everyone the chance to have a few winning screenshots of their own, we will be publishing as many of the offers that come to light. Some are invitation only and some are open to all but like we always say, you have to be in it to win it !

So if you have an account already then you are all set for some risk free action. If not, then you can bag a free £25 sign up bet too. Of course we have it all covered in Oddsmatcher so finding a match to lock in more risk free profits could not be easier. Then you too can join in all the risk free gaming fun!
Just click below to get started…..

WILLIAM HILL

And please feel free to send us your winning screenshots, we will be more than happy to share the love and feature them on the site and we will keep posting ours up too.

UPDATE: Just nabbed another free tenner for this weekend on the LIVE casino, the weekend has started early for me!

Have a profitable weekend

Kind regards

Darren Hall – www.bet72.com – No Risk. No Catch. Just Good Maths.

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