The Weekend Wager

Posted on November 13, 2010 by Darren Hall

Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced by Mike Bishop and the team at the Secret Betting Club.

Each and every Friday through this column we bring together some of the finest experts to give you betting tips, advice and guidance for the next 7 days..

1. Mike Says..

In this column, Secret Betting Club co-editor and professional gambler Mike Bishop discusses some of the weeks most topical betting issues.

Football.. Bloody Hell!

As Sir Alex Ferguson so once famously quoted after Man United’s epic comeback in the 99 Champions League, football can straddle the thin line between success and failure very closely indeed… As the scorer of the ‘golden’ own goal this Monday night that provided my 5 a side team with our first trophy will no doubt testify!

It’s the same when it comes to football betting of course – with a referee decision here, an offside there meaning the narrowest of differences between a winning and losing bet.

When you add in bookmaker margins of guaranteed profit and the teams of people they employ to spend all day pricing up bets…How likely therefore is it to actually make money betting on football?

The answer is that it is possible to prosper betting on football, but often only when you have an expert to guide you.

Just as 80% of people will tell you they are a good driver (the reality is the % figure is a lot lower – me included!) so most people over-estimate just how good they are at picking out profitable bets.

Our 7 Best Football Experts

With all this in mind, its well worth having a look at some of the football experts that we recommend here at SBC who can help you be in the few that profit from betting.

To help uncover this, over the past few months I have been blogging on 7 of the very best tipsters and listing their exact profit figures for both this and last season.

After a tremendous 2009/10 season, these 7 tipsters have continued to flourish since the new season began in July and are up over £6200 to just £50 stakes during this period already.

If applying some sensible money management and optimising stakes you can also make this money go further and generate a larger profit.

If you have yet to do so read my latest blog post this week on the 7 Football Tipsters worth following this season.

Get Started Right Away

If you are impressed by the profits made by our recommended tipsters, then I can highly recommend you take up a full Secret Betting Club membership.

As soon as you join, you can gain immediate access to all the details, stats and reviews of each of these tipsters and can get motoring with your football betting.

Sign-up at the Secret Betting Club today.

Check out these other latest articles from our Blog this week

The Football Tipsters To Follow
An update on the 7 football tipsters we recommend and how they have fared this season. Includes a section on the profits made if using sensible money management and staking.

Mike’s Football Bets This Season
Linked in with my column below on making a profit in the English Premier League. A busy weekend ahead of bets from me.

Until next week…

Mike Bishop

2. Mike’s Football Bets

Mike analyses the forthcoming football betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value. This is part of a season-long experiment to see the likely returns from such an approach and to build up a public record.

Blackpool have been a breath of fresh air this season, not least for the crazy bumpkin manager Ian Holloway but for their at time kamikaze gung-ho attacking play. The tangerines travel down this weekend to face leaky West Ham in a game that has goals written all over it in 10 foot tall neon letters. The Hammers have gone overs in around 65% of all home games, whereas Blackpool have been overs in 10 out of 12 games this season. Neither team can defend to save their lives and with the home team having to win this game, expect an attacking outlook. The bookies have it pegged at a 2.14 for over 3 goals (basically we lose if 2 or less goals, draw if 3 goals and win if 4 goals or more) and I am having a piece of that!

My perennial fave team this year Bolton, continue to look under-rated by the bookies and look value once again as they travel to Molineux to face Wolves. Bolton have been beaten only twice this season by Arsenal and Liverpool despite a very tricky set of games so far. I make the chance of a draw or Bolton win to be around 55 to 60%, which equates to odds of about 1.74. The bookies are offering me 1.91 with Stan James on them with a +0.25 Asian Handicap so there is clear value there.

Elsewhere I also fancy 3 teams who are strong at home in the form of Everton, Stoke and Aston Villa to win for me this weekend.

Villa have been beaten only once at home by a top 8 team and conversely United have won only 3 games away against the top 8 since the 09/10 season. A United away win I rate at between 30 – 40% chance here and considering the likes of Scholes, Rooney & Giggs are out they may struggle to break Villa down. I’m taking the +0.5 Asian Handicap on Villa at 2.14 with 12Bet as I make the true odds of this to be around 2.0.

Everton have been playing well with little reward lately as they can’t find the back of the net but stats show their dominance in matches. Historically under David Moyes, Everton have a formidable home record and Arsenal will do well to win here so the +0.5 on Everton at 1.78 from 188bet appeals.

Finally Stoke have endured a very tough run of games, not helped by some very dodgy referees decisions and they host a tired looking Liverpool who look to be feeling the effects of having such a small squad. Stoke are notoriously difficult to break down and only lost at home to the top 4 teams last season. I am taking the +0.5 Asian Handicap again on the home outfit at 1.88 with Stan James.

Main Bets

1 pt Over 3 goals – West Ham V Blackpool. 2.14 10Bet
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Wolves. 1.91 Stan James
1 pt Villa (+0.5 AH) V Man Utd. 2.14 12Bet
1 pt Everton (+0.5 AH) V Arsenal. 1.78 188bet
1 pt Stoke (+0.5 AH) V Liverpool. 1.88 Stan James

Shortlist Bets
None

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Just to clarify, although we have members and some tipsters providing some free tips and systems, we are primarily a review service. Please dont expect miracles or read too much into this experiment!

The Latest News On Whats Making Money Betting

The very latest issue of the Secret Betting Club newsletter is out NOW and features everything you need to know about making money including…

The little-known racing tipster who has made over 792 pts profit since December 2009. Find out who he is and what we make of his service in our exclusive review.
The Hall of Fame racing tipster that has made 600 pts profit in the past year alone! At just £20 stakes thats a profit of £12,000 and the bookmakers are running scared!
Our beginners guide on how to build up your betting profits from scratch and on a budget by employing some easy to follow strategies for success. Written by professional gamblers who know how to make money betting!

3. A Sporting Chance

Scott Armstrong is The Sportsman who provides his regular expert betting advice on a range of sports such as Darts, Racing & Football. Each week via this column you can find his latest betting insight and expect some advice in fairly untapped markets – his speciality!

The Grand Slam of Darts kicks off on ITV tomorrow for nine days of arrows action and I’m putting up an overview of the first round group stages of the event which lasts four days/nights to help you get into the black. It’s a unique TV tournament featuring 32 players from both codes of PDC and BDO darts. Phil Taylor is the only player to have won the event in its short lifespan of three years.

The 32 players are divided into eight groups of four for round one with the top two players in each group entering the 2^nd round knockout stages. The first round group matches are only the first to five legs. That’s not even a five furlong sprint in horse racing parlance, more of an American style bullet race and that levels the playing field for those players of lesser talent though it would be pushing it too far to suggest this year’s two female competitors look likely to win a match between them. If you must bet in the group stages then head for the pink button on Betfair. Simon Whitlock is arguably the 3rd best player in the world at present but at 2-5 to beat BDO world championship runner-up Dave Chisnall he is there to be shot at. Mark Hylton will be nervous under the TV lights and faces Gary Anderson a fantastic maximums man, though the same can’t be said of his doubling. Anderson is a very tight 1-5. PDC World number 2 James Wade is also unbackable at 1-6 against Justin Pipe. Of the closer match prices it’s questionable whether Colin Lloyd merits odds on status against Daryll Fitton. And Phil Taylor at 1-10 against Michael Van Gerwen is not buying money over this format either.

In the “not to qualify” market there are some big prices worth speculative punts. Gary Anderson could be worth a small play in the not to qualify market at 7-2 with Betfred and Sportingbet in Group B. Terry Jenkins admits he usually takes a game to settle down in tournaments which could endanger his qualification hopes and he’s 9-2 with Skybet to fail to reach the top two of Group C. Raymond van Barneveld hasn’t had his troubles to seek of late and 7-1 not to qualify could be worth a few quid as Colin Lloyd and Daryll Fitton are both capable of beating him over this lightening quick format in Group F. Group G is a tight one and Ronnie Baxter looks a tad overpriced at 9-4 not to make the cut.

The subsidiary markets such as maximum totals are also best left alone until round two but for anyone who fancy’s a dabble the Round 1 tournament match maximum averages in it’s three year existence sits at 2.86 or 1.43 per player. The highest match checkout average over three years is 104.53. Of the special bets a 170 has been struck at least once in every tournament and that occurrence in this year’s event is 1-2 with several layers. For the first time ever at the oche Phil Taylor will wear glasses and while that could be associated as a negative he reckons it’s made his vision clearer and will improve his game further. Phil Taylor over a 106.5 average in any match in the tournament with Betfred @ 9-10 may be worthy of consideration. The world’s greatest ever arrow smith has achieved this in two of the three years of the tournament and will be chomping at the bit to put on a fireworks display against mouthy BDO rival Ted Hankey, bespectacled or not.

The A to Z of Tipster & System Reviews

Check out the new look Secret Betting Club website, which now features a full A to Z list of many of the tipsters we have reviewed and analysed.

Our latest reviews include: Gorans Winners, CD Systems ProLays, Football Bets, System Selections, My Betting News, Daqman, Packed Pockets, Football Betting Index, Northern Monkey, Bet Soft Pro & Bettor Logic.

There is also plenty written about Betfan, Statman Racing, Turf Accoutant, Martin Bishop, Selective Betting, All By The Book, Soccer Oracle, Winners Bet Winners, Sports Power Club & Daniel Morrison.

f you cant find a review on the service you are interested in, simply enter their name into the search the site box – chances are we have featured them in the past.

Visit here for more info: http://www.secretbettingclub.com/info

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo provide English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier ratings and systems. Using their own in-house systems to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

No new pick.

5. Systematic Soccer

Mat Hare runs Soccer Systems, a free blog where he is sharing the selections from 9 different portfolio systems this season. The selections generated by one of these systems (Game Form) are being exclusively posted on the Secret Betting Club forum this season. Each week in this column, Mat will also be sharing a sample of what the Game Form system has produced this weekend.

November has been a tough month for the various portfolios running on the Soccer Systems blog with numerous results not quite going our way. But we live to fight another day and all systems are well within their advised bankroll figures. Even so I am praying for a change in fortunes and for us to get the rub of the green for a change.

Middlesbrough are a team that have featured several times in this column with mixed results. It’s remarkable to see them cropping up so often when the system rules don’t actually include mention of specific teams. It must be that Middlesbrough are meeting certain criteria on a regular basis and thus appearing so often in the Game Form Portfolio bets. This week it’s a two point bet on Boro’s game away at Swansea to go over 2.5 goals.

Saturday 13th November

14/11/2010 Swansea v Middlesbrough – 2pts Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (Bet365)

I said a few weeks ago when the system picked Boro’s game at Norwich to go over 2.5 goals that we’d probably need Boro to score and the same holds true here too. Unfortunately Middlesbrough don’t get many goals on the road – they’ve scored just four times in eight away games this season. Swansea don’t score many at home either, 11 goals in their eight home games but with Swansea flying high and Middlesbrough really struggling let’s hope we see a few goals in this fixture and can net a decent profit.

6. Putting For Profit

Ian Richards runs Sportsbettingindex.com, a betting portal which includes an odds comparison site, free tips and betting blog – helping the punter for the last 10 years.

Next Weeks Golf Events
European/Asian Tour – Hong Kong Open
Japanese Tour – Dunlop Phoenix

In years gone by this is the time of year when golf tournaments became very thin on the ground. For this reason it was called the ‘silly season’ with limited field events such as father/son competitions. Thankfully nowadays there are still normally two full field events per week up until Christmas. Next week sees just the two events in the Far East, although if you fancy betting on something in the States, Skybet have priced up all the Stage II PGA Q school and the final stage of the Champions Q school where value can sometimes be found.

The Dunlop Phoenix event in Japan is the first event on their schedule where some of the bigger stars from around the world join the regular Japanese tour players. Next week Ed Molinari defends his title and plays alongside Robert Karlsson, Robert Allenby and even Tom Watson will put in an appearance. With less events being staged, more bookmakers price up the Japanese Tour, so look for any price differences. There are three bookies who price up this tour all year round and have greater knowledge namely Skybet, Bet365 and Stan James, the rest will either be relying on those three or will try and price it up themselves

Good luck with your bets!

Ian.

That’s all for today! Have a great weekend…

The Weekend Wager is brought to you by

http://www.secretbettingclub.com

Best Regards,

Mike Bishop and Dan Jones
Co-editors, Secret Betting Club

P.S. All new members get our full back catalogue when joining and considering we have recently published our 54th edition, that’s a huge amount of info all thrown in for free!