The Weekend Wager – 21/05/09

Welcome to this the latest ‘Weekend Wager’ free betting column produced by Mike Bishop from the Secret Betting Club and Money Maker Review service.

1. Mike Says

In the Secret Betting Club we have a really wide range of members, with a very diverse audience comprising of everyone from full-time gamblers to housewife investors, made up of people that come from all over the globe. Indeed even this week we even picked up our first Russian member, which really indicates how far betting has spread!

In many ways this broad range of people is representative of betting’s huge appeal as it offers a great level playing field that ensures anyone with the right skills, application and knowledge can make a success if they follow the right path. Unlike other areas of investment you don’t need a huge amount of qualifications first or need to pay steep costs up-front to get involved.

Effectively it may seem all you need is a computer with an Internet connection and away you go, but I would factor in a few more pre-requisites to make it a success. Naturally you need all the right information (which is where we come in at the Secret Betting Club obviously) but also a smattering of patience and discipline. Its amazing to think what you can make over a year just by following a few low maintenance services, when a lot of small amounts gradually accumulate into bigger winnings.

We have been illustrating just that same ‘small acorns’ method via a recommended portfolio of services recently and how its not always about placing £100’s on every bet or having lots of money to start off with. One of our Budget portfolio examples features just 3 services that will take you only 1 hour in total to follow each week. Over the past year at small stakes on each bet between just £10 and £20, you would have made over £1283 profit alone. That’s effectively like earning £24.67 per hour (tax-free), which is not bad for a total beginner!

If your new to gambling or worried that you haven’t the funds or experience to make it work for you, think again. Feel free to drop us an email or check out our website to if you need more info!

Mike Bishop

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2. The Next Week In Betting

And so it comes down to the last round of games in the Premier League this weekend with 2 out of 4 relegation spaces still to be decided on Sunday between Boro, Newcastle, Hull & Sunderland. I can’t recall seeing a more sorry bunch of teams, all of whom have been in appalling form and you couldn’t argue against all of them being demoted on the grounds of being so dreadful.

‘Ull City may well need to get something at home to Man Utd and I heard an interesting stat this week that Phil Browns men have played the most long balls this season in the top flight, whereas Man Utd have played the least. It would seem to be the biggest case of beauty and the beast since Paul Daniels met Debbie McGee and even the likes of Macheda, Welbeck, Fletcher and Gibson will be too good for ‘Ull so the 7/5 with VCbet appeals for Sir Alex’s men. Man Utd also have the small matter of a Champions league final in midweek and this looks a very tough game to call from a betting perspective, with the bookies hyper-efficient with their odds on such games. Good luck if your getting involved on a betting front in this one.

With the Premier League these days so uncompetitive at the top end, Sky will also be focusing on the ‘battle’ for 7th, with entry to the re-styled Europa League up for grabs for the unlucky victor. Spurs to their credit have been doing their level best not to qualify and I fancy Fulham to pip them to 7th by getting at least a draw at home to Everton, who have an abysmal record away at Craven Cottage. That will no doubt mean Fulham will become the first ‘Cottagers’ to hit Europe since George Michael went on his last world tour. Fulham are 6/5 with VCbet to win, although I prefer the price of Aston Villa to finish 5th (which they will if they beat Newcastle and Everton don’t win) at 15/8 with Boylesports.

Perhaps the most excitement this weekend will come in the form of the league playoffs, where you usually find at least 1 out of the 3 winner-takes-all-games is a real ripsnorter. In saying that though I don’t foresee lots of goals between Burnley and Sheffield United, with the latter most likely missing their two frontmen through injury. I would be tempted to go under 2.5 goals but the best price on that is a very short looking 1.7 with Betfair currently. Elsewhere Millwall face Scunthorpe in League 1, and Shrewsbury face Gillingham who they thrashed 7-0 earlier in the season. Over 2.5 goals in that game is a tasty looking 6/5 with Totesport.

Its not just football this weekend as we also get the very sexy Monaco grand prix, which is going to be set against all kinds of histrionics off the track as Ferrari and FIA continue to squabble like school children. Betting wise we once again we see that man Jenson Button heading the field as the 3/1 fave with Sportingbet, although he has never won here. It’s a very tricky track and I wouldn’t go overboard on such a short price, preferring to take a punt on more of an outsider. Rubens Barrichello again appeals at 6/1 with Extrabet as does Jarno Trulli each way at a big 33/1 with Stan James.

We also have the never-ending series of Cricket between England and West Indies, where the tourists are counting down the days until they can go home. In the one day series, if the rain holds off and with likely overcast conditions, England should have far too much especially in the swing bowling department and the 6/4 on a home series victory with Paddy Power is excellent. Perhaps if England want to win the Ashes they should play the Aussies at home in May, as their swing bowling attack would give them a huge advantage. As it is the build-up to the biggest Ashes series ever (since the last one) began this week and we now see England out to as big as 9/4 to win the little urn with Ladbrokes. While I do make the Aussies favourites, I don’t think that price is in line and I expect this to contract before the actual series begins in earnest.
Good luck with whatever you’re having a punt on this week.

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3. Tipping Legends Column

The Tipping Legends are 2 horse racing specialists who both have an in-depth knowledge of the sport and will be supplying a full rundown of some of the weekend’s feature races and betting angles. These guys know their stuff when it comes to racing, ignore at your peril.

3 yr olds always pose a problem in open handicaps as they are often full of promise but essentially an unknown quantity. The big question is just how will they perform against their elders? So this week I decided to delve in a touch to find out.

Firstly, they are either maturing quicker or more trainers are keeping them for an effective 3 yr old campaign as in each year since 1999, the percentage of winners has increased. In 1999 – it was 6.96%, rising steadily to 7.81 % in 2004 but by 2008 its shot up to 10.5%

Have the betting public cottoned on yet? No seems to be the answer as in 1999 the loss was at -37.7% ROI, whereas in 2008 it is only -14.9%.

So lets look at another angle, namely are 3 yr olds better earlier in the season? To investigate this, I will only look at 2004-08 as this reflects better on current conditions.

May produced 8.0% winners, June 8.3%, July 11.2% – this is the peak month as I am guessing that after this the handicapper catches up with them. The percentage’s in future months are – Aug 9.9% ,Sept 8.9% & Oct 8.7%

Taking this further, is there still an area where the handicapper can be caught unawares later in the year? Yes is the answer. Most 3 yr olds are campaigned at shorter distances so when they are upped to over 12f they often improve significantly. Add in a generous WFA over these distances and there is a nice angle to attack. Just by looking at August to October, the strike rate for races up to 10f is only 7.7%. From 1 mile 2f to 1mile 6f, the strike rate is 11.5% and above that distance it shoots up to 15.8%

So if you look to all 3 yr olds in handicaps in July as a potential starting point but after that time concentrate on races over 10f & especially over a longer trip then you have the makings of a good system.

Visit The Tipping Legends Website

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4. Herbie Fogg

Herbie Fogg is a horse racing expert specialising in using detailed statistical research to find a value edge. Herbie runs three services; The Edge, Turfmax and a newly launched Saturday service, which has just launched and you can find full details here: www.herbiefogg.com/#/saturdayservice/4532988669

King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket, Saturday 23rd May.

A hectic few days at Herbie HQ, hopefully this week’s column will arrive in time with Mike and Dan. Talking of HQ, lets see if we can continue the good work of the past few weeks with a look at the King Charles II Stakes, a Listed race with a decent record of producing future winners, with Jeremy in 2006 and Tariq in 2007 going on to win the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot next time out.
The race tends to fall to a likely candidate on the upgrade, lightly raced at 2 and most typically an improver bagging a first success at Pattern grade (12 of the last 13). 100% of the last 13 winners were returned at 8/1 or less, with 12 at 6/1 or less and 7 successful favourites. Godolphin have a good record and the race is invariably won by a top Newmarket yard.

A busy schedule at 2 is a negative, and that could be a factor again in 2009. 11 of the last 13 winners had not raced more than 5 times.

Despite smallish fields, usually ranging from 5 – 10, 100% of the last 13 winners were drawn middle to high. In a 7 runner field there has been one success from stall 3 (1996), so although stall 3 may have a bit to do, I shall only scratch stalls 1 and 2.

12 of the last 13 winners ran at a Grade 1 track last time out, but in 2009 two significant contenders have arrived via a less unconventional route, in particular Donativum, last seen victorious in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf over 1 mile at Santa Anita on firm. Previously Donativum had won the Tattersalls Timeform Million from Crowded House over C&D, but at Santa Anita he improved and appeared well suited by the step up – given an entry for the Coral Eclipse over 1m 2fl it would seem less ideal to bob up over 7fl, in a race seemingly chosen to fit future objectives. Other reservations would be Godolphin’s current form on seasonal bow, and the demands placed on him as a juvenile, racing 6 times and travelling to the USA. I am inclined to look elsewhere.

I will scratch Captain Ramius, who does seem likely to give a better account returned to 7fl. He has a American pedigree and has raced entirely on sand to date, not venturing beyond Kempton and Dundalk and would need to step up again on those efforts.

Courageous can possibly be forgiven his recent run over C&D when found to be lame, he fits the profile but needs to find more improvement than some and with no entries to signify confidence in future plans, is taken to fall below the level required.

Elimination has reduced our shortlist two: Baileys Cacao (Hannon) & Alyarf (Hills). Baileys Cacao has arrived via a fillies Group 3 at Lingfield, beaten a nose carrying 1lb overweight. This horse acts on good or faster. The form credentials are there, but she has been made full use of (8 runs to date) and looks exposed albeit a smart Listed quality animal. With the Lingfield form a tad suspect for Group 3 (bunched finish), I shall side with the Barry Hills entry.

Alyarf is the trends pick with a perfect score, an impressive 4th to Delegator latest, trying 1 mile and finding it slightly too far. Bags of speed, 2 group 1 entries, ground and trip ideal, from a yard in exceptional form. Mum’s the word.

Bon chance,
Herbie

To keep up-to-date with developments at http://www.herbiefogg.com/

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