The Weekend Wager – 10/04/09

Welcome to this the latest ‘Weekend Wager’ free betting column produced by Mike Bishop from the Secret Betting Club and Money Maker Review service.

I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member’s website Money Maker Review.

1. Mike Says

Well the betting fever is over for another year and the Grand National left quite a few punters out of pocket with the shock winner, who became the 1st horse in 40 years to win the race at odds of 100/1. Not even the winning jockey’s mum thought it had a chance as she only placed 50p on him to win! One lucky punter though had an amazing day as he stuck £30 down and picked out three of the first four home to scoop up a profit of £65,000 with winning odds of 11848/1!

The dream of placing a small bet that comes in at massive odds is one every punter aspires to. Even my own granny used to play the pools coupons every week in the hope of a big win and perhaps my own love of all things betting can be traced back to helping her pick the selections when I was a young lad!

2. The Next Week In Betting

The big event this week is the US Masters Golf which will is now well underway with all eyes firmly focused on Tiger Woods. You can keep track of all the in-running odds either via Betfair or this oddschecker market.
Plenty of footy action this weekend with the games now coming thick and fast and Liverpool are a very short 1/3 with VCbet to beat Blackburn in the Saturday midday game. Will Stevie G be risked with his injury concerns and can they raise their game to face a rough and tumble Blackburn outfit? I am not so sure and whilst the 11/1 from Skybet on the away team is tempting, the +1.25 asian handicap at 11/10 with Stan James on Big Sam’s team could be worth a sneaky bet. Portsmouth face a demoralised West Brom at home on Saturday and this is a game they will have targeted to take 3 points from so I expect them to come out all guns blazing. I feel the 3/4 with Sportingbet on offer is a little bit of value.
Down a league to the Championship I again am tempted to take some of the large odds on a number of teams who are away from home this weekend. Sheffield United are bang in form and look a decent priced 12/5 with VCbet to win at Reading. Likewise a case can be made for Bristol City away at Forest (15/8 with Coral) whilst Doncaster look very big at 4/1 with Paddy Power to win away at Ipswich.
Only one Cricket bet to talk about on Monday with South Africa facing Australia in their 4th ODI, where the home team are deserved 8/11 favourites with Bluesq. The match odds look about right but with the Aussie top order misfiring regularly, the 33/1 with Bet365 on Mitchell Johnson to be top scorer could be worth a speculative bet. Equally the 16/1 with Stan James on all-rounder James Hopes to the same looks too big.
Good luck with whatever you’re having a punt on this week.

3. Tipping Legends Column

The Tipping Legends are 2 horse racing specialists who both have an in-depth knowledge of the sport and will be supplying a full rundown of some of the weekend’s feature races and betting angles. These guys know their stuff when it comes to racing, ignore at your peril.

As we leave NH racing behind and move into the Flat season, it is always worth looking at the effect that the draw has on the various flat courses throughout the country

These categories are not based on any recorded stats or records, but on over 30 years betting and I have found the following work sheet to be a helpful guide. Please remember any advantage in the draw is usually only a factor in Sprint races (5-7f) and it assumes good ground, as soft ground does alter the bias on occasions.

No advantage — love these courses as the draw simply does not come into calculations. As a result can often get decent prices in large field handicaps as no draw advantage
Ascot ( includes Royal Ascot meeting) – Chepstow – Newmarket – Wolverhampton

Low Draw an advantage – Those marked with # indicate low draw essential
Ayr – Bath – Brighton # – Catterick – Chester ### – Epsom(over 7f) ## – Goodwood – Kempton( sprints) – Newcastle – Nottingham (when stalls on far side) – Pontefract # – Ripon # – Salisbury – Southwell – Thirsk – Warwick # – York

High Draw an advantage – Those marked with # indicate high draw essential
Beverley – Carlisle – Epsom (up to & 7 furlongs) ## Folkestone ### – Hamilton – Kempton (round)- Leicester # – Lingfield – Musselburgh -Nottingham (when stalls on stand side) – Doncaster – Newbury – Redcar – Sandown – Thirsk – Windsor – Yarmouth #

Whilst the draw has a considerable impact over sprint races, always remember that a fast starting sprinter is often able to win from an unfavourable draw.

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo are English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier betting experts. Using their own excellent football system to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are sharing one of their ‘star’ bets every week with us. Star bets are their best rated, best value bets and worth following in with a few bob of your own.

The last couple of bets I have given you here have ended in draws, and to be honest, the draws have been a pain in the backside this year, holding our profits back, when compared to last season. As a matter of fact, out of the last 14 bets I’ve given to my members, we’ve had 7 winners, 6 draws, and 1 loser. But that’s the way it goes sometimes and the long-term patient approach is the one that pays off in the long run.

The season is bubbling up to an interesting climax but I tend to detach myself somewhat from the emotions of promotion and relegation, and remain focussed on where the odds on offer more than cover the risk involved.

Today, we’ll take a trip to the Conference for the recommended bet. Sometimes, at this time of the season, teams that have to win crumble under the pressure, and others who are “safe” can play without fear. This applies to the Grays V Salisbury game. Grays need the points to retain their Conference status, whilst Salisbury are mid-table. Over the years I’ve found that it’s a bit of a myth that teams in Salisbury’s position stop trying at this time of the season. I’m sure they will be attempting to win this game in the normal way, so 21/10 (3.10) for a Salisbury win covers the risk.

Have a bet on Salisbury to beat Grays at 21/10 (3.10) available with Hills and Victor Chandler.
Good luck with your betting.
Mike Lindley (www.winabobatoo.co.uk )

5. Skeeve’s Non-League

Skeeve is our resident Non-League betting expert who will be sharing with you his best advice for this weekend’s domestic non-league card. What Skeeve doesn’t know about all things semi-pro aint worth knowing and the bookies hate it as lets face it they know next-to nothing about football at this level.

Hi everybody,
Another bet won last weekend, we’ve made +41 units profit after 21 free picks (44% RoI):

My 2009 stats look pretty similar, I’ve made +146 units profit after 102 bets so far in 2009 (gigantic 40% RoI), happy times! Who would’ve thought after that awful start of the season, right? Well I did, remember? Hard work never gets unrewarded and all the other irritating catch-phrases? But it’s true! 🙂
The membership and the waiting list are both closed for the rest of the season. Everyone who ends the season as a Skeeve Picks subscriber will be offered a spot for next season and if someone drops out, I’ll contact the first guy on the waiting list for next season. If you want to be on the waiting list for next season, feel free to send me an e-mail.
cheers,
Skeeve

11/4/2009
BLUE SQUARE SOUTH

AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: Dorchester – NEWPORT 2 (2.88 @Skybet) 3 units & X (3.50 @Skybet) 1 unit
Dorchester haven’t scored a goal in the last 532 minutes – 0:3 to depleted Maidenhead, 0:2 at St Albans, 0:0 at Worcester who are terrible at home, 0:1 to Hampton, 0:2 to Poole Town from the Wessex Premier league (three levels below BSS) in the Dorset Cup this Tuesday – it was 0:0 after 90 minutes, so Dorchester (Bowles, Smeeton, Hill, Jermyn, Gleeson, Crittenden, Mitchell, Nicholson and Reeve all played, only a few players were being rested – standard defender Bowles picked up a bad injury btw and looks set to miss the rest of the season and another defender Vickers can’t play against Newport because that’s where he came from a few weeks ago; a nice little gentlemen agreement that also helps us with this bet) had to play an extra 60 (conceded two in extra-time, scored zero in 532 minutes of football). They’ve lost a lot of key players in 2009 and now that we know the names of the teams that are going to get relegated (Fisher, Bognor, Team Bath), Dorchester can relax and start preparing for next season.
Newport’s manager Holdsworth wants these three points, he wants to finish this season in style. They’ve also lost in an unimportant local cup match this week, but unlike Dorchester, Newport only had two bench players, Jenkins and Leek, in the starting line-up – all the regular starters were being rested. Newport have two consecutive wins (1:0 at Bognor, 4:0 vs Fisher), four wins, a draw and a defeat in the last six, two wins (1:0 at Hampton, 1:0 at Bognor) and a draw at St Albans in the last three away matches and, last but not least, their best scorer and key player Reid (you should’ve seen him against Fisher, their defenders still have nightmares) is fit again – and scoring goals again (scored both against Bognor and Fisher). It was 4:4 at Newport back in August, but Newport won both matches last season (3:2 both at Newport and at Dorchester – and btw it was 4:0 for Newport at Dorchester the season before) and I don’t think they’ll lose – and if they win, we make +4.64 units profit (we lose half a unit in case of a draw). Dorchester shouldn’t even be favorites in this match – and they’re big favorites everywhere you look. Very bad odds compiling.
(2.80 for an away win at Blue Square and Bwin, 2.75 at StanJames and also at BetFred and BoyleSports btw, 2.70 at Paddy Power and also at Gamebookers btw… 3.50 for a draw also at Blue Square, Bwin, StanJames, Victor Chandler…)

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