If, When, Why, What…..
One from our video vault but very prevalent with so many existing user offers about now (see here)
Recently we have seen a tremendous increase in the number of conditional or “IF” offers from a range of bookmakers but can you actually make a profit from them?
Only one way to find out, with the help of a video and a very handy spreadsheet.
Come and have a look……
Let’s have a look in black and white too….
Can you make a risk free profit from these types of IF xxxx offers?
The easiest way to understand it, is to think of it just the same way as a normal matched bet, but with a very restricted market for the qualifying bet, and only one market for the free bet!
If match A ends 0-0 Bookmaker A will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match upto a certain maximum
In the case of the 0-0 refund offers, your ‘free bet’ will ‘win’ at the bookies, if the game ends 0-0. The amount it will win is equivalent to the stake you place for your qualifying bet.
The most important thing to remember is that, just like with normal matched betting, you should treat the two bets independently of each other – each part makes its own profit or loss, and don’t try and think of too many combinations of outcome.
An important point to remember here is that both events must be mutually exclusive – it must not be the case that both can happen! Otherwise, you could end up winning at the bookie, for the qualifying bet, but having to pay out on the lay on the ‘insurance’/free bet part. As you won’t be receiving anything back from the bookie for this part (as your original bet won) you would end up down in cash. 0-0 insurance is great, as long as you back any other score (a game can’t end with two scores!).
Take a onetime England offer from Paddypower, who said they would refund all losing first goalscorer bets if Wayne Rooney scored anytime in 90 mins, in a particular England match.
This could be guaranteed profitable only if the qualifying event i.e. a correct score bet – did not have any chance for Rooney to score, i.e. you could bet on 1-0 to the opposition, but not 2-1 (as Rooney could have scored England’s 1 goal).
The key is you need to find a very good qualifying bet where the back odds at the bookmaker on the selection I want are close to the lay odds at the betting exchange.
To get a rough calculation of the profit on the 0-0 refund, you need to look at the odds for 0-0 on your exchange (i.e., Betfair). Divide the maximum refund by the lay odds for 0-0 and take off your commission, typically 5% (for example, by multiplying through the answer by 0.95) to get a good approximation.
Here’s an example:
Place a bet and get it refunded if the game ends 0-0. Maximum £100 stake will be refunded.
Say the lay odds available on Betfair are 8.
Then the profit from the 0-0 insurance will be roughly £100/8 * 0.95 = £11.88
So you want a qualifier that loses less than £11.88 to make this worthwhile. You must also note that there may be wagering requirements on the bet refund or the refund may be in the form of a free bet (which may or may not be stake returned). If this is the case, you should approximate how much this will cost you and adjust accordingly!
Say your refund is given as an Stake Not Returned free bet, then you can reasonably expect to make 80% back, the true value of your refunded stake is £24 and the calculation become 24/8 * .95 = £9.50 profit
If you are satisfied that it’s worth doing then place your qualifying bet as normal – you now need to work out how much to lay on the 0-0.
To do this, enter the value refund amount, (remember this will be 100% of the amount for cashback or stake returned offers and 80% of stake not returned ones) as the Back Stake and put in ‘1′ as the Back Odds in the Bet72 Matched Betting spreadsheet. The lay odds for 0-0 and finally enter your exchange commission rate.
This will show the correct lay stake.
All the usual caveats about odds possibly changing mid way through etc do apply, so please bear this in mind and only do this if you are confident you can get your bets on at the prices you are calculating for. If you find an arb, there is no hurry to bet on the 0-0, but it’s some extra profit so why not.
OK here’s an example (fictional of course!):
If Match A ends 0-0 Bookmaker A will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match upto £100
Just look to back anything that is mutually exclusive from a 0-0 result i.e. TeamA to win, TeamB to win, any scoreline apart from 0-0, any goalscorer or any HT/FT result other than draw/draw. Whatever gives us the best match up in back/lay odds combination
Once you’ve picked your qualifying bet, match it out for as little loss as possible – back/lay it so that you win/lose the same amount no matter what the result using the regular matched betting calculations.
After that, you then go on to lay the stake refund condition/outcome i.e. 0-0, to lock in a profit.
Back TEAM A 1-0 @ The Bookmaker at odds of 7 with £100
Lay TEAM A 1-0 @ The Exchange at odds of 7.2 with £97.90 (a £606.99 liability)
This gives a £6.99 loss whatever the outcome.
Then 0-0 @ The Exchange at odds of 10 with £10.05 (a £90.45 liability)
So possible outcomes are on the result are:
Score not 0-0 = +£9.55 (winning 0-0 lay bet less commission @ 5%) – -£6.99 (qualifying bet) = £2.56 profit.
Score is 0-0 = -£90.45 (losing 0-0 lay bet) -£6.99 (qualifying bet) + £100 (stake refund from bookie) = £2.56 profit.
So if you are happy with the potential gain for the time you will spend doing it and amount of cash required and how long it could be tied up for, then you are good to go!
Here’s another IF example from Cheltenham but still very relevant
If Cue Card wins the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Paddy Power will refund single and the win section of each-way bets placed on others runners in the race up to £200/€200.
So we just need to BACK / LAY any other horse in the race and then LAY Cue Card to lock a profit.
Obviously we are still looking at Antepost prices here but as an example (at the time of typing) you could:
BACK Spirit Son at PP with £200 at 6.5
LAY Spirit Son at Betfair with £167.74 at 7.8 (£1140.65 liability)
and LAY Cue Card at Betfair with £58 at 3.5 (£145 liability)
Spirit Son Wins
= +£1100 at PP – £1140.65 at BF + £55.10 (lay on CueCard at BF less 5%) = £14.45 profit
Spirit Son Loses and Cue Card Loses Too
= -£200 at PP + £159.35 at BF (lay on Spirit Son less 5%) + £55.10 (lay on CueCard at BF less 5%) = £14.45 profit
Spirit Son Loses and Cue Card Wins
= 0 at PP (lose £200, get £200 refund) + £159.35 at BF (lay on Spirit Son less 5%) – £145.00 (lay on CueCard at BF) = £14.35 profit
This is an example of splitting the profit equally over all outcomes but of couse you could weight the bets to favour one or the other a little more depending on whether you think Cue Card will win or not. So at worse it would be a risk free punt with a decent upside!
As always if you have been affected by any issues raised in this article then please don’t hesitate to contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org