The Weekend Wager from Secret Betting Club

Posted on December 11, 2010 by Darren Hall

Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced by the Secret Betting Club.

Each and every Friday through this column we bring together some of the finest experts to give you betting tips, advice and guidance for the next 7 days..

1. Dan Says..

In this column, Secret Betting Club co-editor and professional gambler Dan Jones discusses some of the weeks most topical betting issues.

It’s easy to understand the appeal of a guaranteed winner. They might come from a ‘well connected source’ who gives you a nod and wink. We all love the idea of knowing something that others don’t. But…

There are no ‘sure things’

If anyone is to you offer you a ‘guaranteed’ winner, run, don’t walk away from them. Nothing is guaranteed to win (unless the game is fixed, in which case it’s illegal and you could be prosecuted for being involved). Some things have a high probability of winning, but nothing is ever 100%.

Here are some relevant examples:

Chelsea: Chelsea were coasting at the top of the Premier League a month ago. They hadn’t conceded a goal at home for a near record number of matches. They looked a sure thing to win the Premier League…
Senegal beating France in 2002. Massively against the odds, Senegal shocked the world by beating France in the 2002 World cup. I know of at least one person who lost thousands on that match betting on the ‘sure thing’ of a French victory.
Horses trading at 1.01 on Betfair…only to lose: Every week (and sometimes every day) a horse will be miles in front only to fall at the final hurdle. Anyone backing the sure thing at 1.01 looking for free money can often end up with egg on their face.
Lindsay Jacobellis FAIL Turin Winter Olympics 2006. Ok this probably wasn’t a betting opportunity, but it’s still one of my favourite sporting failures ever. In the snowboard cross final, Jacobellis was miles in front and heading for a gold medal. On the penultimate jump she went for a fancy grab and fell over only to see the person in 2^nd place take the gold. You can view the video here.

So you shouldn’t back at short prices?

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with backing something at short prices like 1.50 or 1.25 provided there is value in those prices. So you’d back a 1.50 shot if you think it really should be 1.30 or back a 1.25 shot if it really should be 1.10.

Where many gamblers go wrong is to take a short price on the expecation that it will win with no appreciation of what the true odds should be. I.e. they back at 1.50 thinking this means a 95 to 100% chance of it winning. However a 1.50 shot still has an implied probability of losing of 33%. On the other hand, a pick with odds of 1.25 should win 80% of the time even if you were betting blindly.

Unscrupulous vendors will play on this and provide tips at these odds in order to build up a high strike rate through pure chance alone. They can quite easily go 10 winners on the bounce without any clever analysis at all. At which point you might receive a barrage of promotional emails.

Beware the hidden short prices in laying.

Laying systems (betting on something to lose) are ever popular for some system vendors and certain tipsters and punters seem to like them too. After all, it’s easier to pick a loser in a horse race then it is to pick a loser right?

Very true, but just as you need to ensure you get a value price when backing, you need to ensure a value price in laying so your losses are containable. If anyone tells you the price of a lay ‘doesn’t matter as long as it loses’, drop them like a shot.

What many people don’t realise is that laying at high odds is the same as backing at low odds.

Backing something at 2.0 has an implied chance winning of 50% and an implied chance of losing of 50%.
Backing something at 2.50 has an implied chance of winning of 40% and a 60% chance of losing. The implied odds of it losing are 1.67!
Backing something at 5.0 has an implied chance of winning of 20% and an 80% chance of losing. The implied odds of it losing are 1.25!
Backing something at 8.0 has an implied chance of winning of 12.5% and an 87.5% chance of losing. The implied odds of it losing are 1.14!

When you look at the odds like this you can see why laying systems are so popular with many system vendors – You’re more likely to hit a winning running when you first use it, taking you past any refund. Ok this is a rather cynical way of looking at things, but it pays to be cynical in this game.

Can you make money betting at short prices?

You can most certainly make money backing at short prices, but just remember that there are no sure things and even a 1.25 shot should lose 20% of the time. This might sounds small, but would you take medical pills if there was a 20% chance of your hair turning bright green?

It works both ways though. We’ve seen a people reject a successful system or tipster because they backed a short price selection that lost, when the long term profits are still very good.

In our www.secretbettingclub.com magazines we give tipsters and systems a thorough examination so you don’t have to. We point out if a tipster is trying to pull the wool over your eyes with short term profits than flatter to deceive. When it comes to tipster and system profits, you need to go beyond headline profits claims and giant strike rates in order to really assess if something will make you money.

This can be a little complex which is why we do the work for you!

If you’re interested in frank & truly independent reviews of tipsters & systems then consider joining the www.secretbettingclub.com today.

If you want to be one of the few click here to join www.secretbettingclub.com

Until next week…

Dan Jones

2. Mike’s Football Bets

Mike analyses the forthcoming football betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value. This is part of a season-long experiment to see the likely returns from such an approach and to build up a public record.

A quick update on the season so far and after last weekend my bets are 2.95 pts in profit from 53.5 pts staked so far since August (ROI of 5.51%) so hoping to up that in coming weeks and months. My staking this season has let me down the most as at flat 1 pt stakes, returns would actually be 4.87 pts up (9.10% ROI) and its something I am certainly looking at. The best news is that of my 9 ante-post bets, 6 are currently winning, which means a further 4.51 pts if it stays the same before the season is out.

We have seen a fair amount of goals in the Premier League this season and I see lots of value in 3 separate over 2.5 goals lines this weekend. My first bet is up at Bolton where my fave team this year host unconvincing travellers Blackburn in a local derby. Blackburn have gone overs in 59% of away games and Bolton in 63% of home games since last season and the odds of 1.98 suggest only a 50.7% chance of this happening again. Happy therefore to take the value on offer here.

Down at Craven Cottage, the odds of 2.35 on Fulham V Sunderland to see over 2.5 goals also looks too high. Looking at similar seasonal scoring stats, I make the % chance of overs to be 47% (about 2.12) and with Sunderland playing 3 up front they won’t be shy about getting forward. Fulham need to get 3 points as well so I can’t see them sitting back here either.

West Ham V Man City rounds off my overs bets this weekend as the Hammers have let in 3 goals or more in 63% of home games since last season. City whilst not prolific themselves should enjoy the woeful defending on offer from the home team, although the best odds of 2.04 are not huge so just a shortlist bet here.

My final main bet is similar to one I took in April last year, which won on Spurs with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home against an out of form Chelsea. You can get 1.83 with Bet365 and considering Redknapp’s charges have lost just 3 home games in 2 seasons, Chelsea have their work cut out here. A draw gives us a 0.41 pt profit, but I can easily see all three points going to the home team.

A couple of final shortlist bets too with Bolton to beat Blackburn at 2.14 and Villa to beat West Brom at 2.2. Both prices I feel should be closer to evens, although some concerns that the Bolton game is a local derby where form can go pear-shaped and Villa need to bounce back from 4 losses on the bounce.

Please note – my bets next week may only appear on Saturday morning. I will be posting them as usual on the SBC Blog.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Bolton V Blackburn. 1.98 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Fulham V Sunderland. 2.35 SBObet/12bet/canbet
1 pt Tottenham (+0.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.83 Bet365/Betinternet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Bolton to beat Blackburn. 2.14 Pinnacle
1 pt Aston Villa to beat West Brom. 2.2 Boylesports
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Man City. 2.04 Ladbrokes

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike
Just to clarify, although we have members and some tipsters providing some free tips and systems, we are primarily a review service. Please dont expect miracles or read too much into this experiment!

Your Ultimate Betting Resource

The very latest issue of the Secret Betting Club newsletter is out NOW and features everything you need to know about making money including…

The free racing tipster who has made 163 pts profit since the start of 2010, which at simply £25 stakes is over £4000.
The second racing tipster who has also made 184 pts profit since starting in February, which also equates to £4600 profit at £25 stakes.
The latest stats on the free racing system – the ‘4 Pronged Attack’ that each new subscriber to SBC has access to. In November it picked out only 6 bets but still had 2 big winners with Diamond Harry in the Hennessy at 9/1 and Menorah at 13/2. In just 123 bets since May 2010, this free system has made £4600 at £50 stakes.

3. A Sporting Chance

Scott Armstrong is The Sportsman who provides his regular expert betting advice on a range of sports such as Darts, Racing & Football. Each week via this column you can find his latest betting insight and expect some advice in fairly untapped markets – his speciality!

A return to looking at Premier League sides corners statistics this week as I pinpoint some recurring areas to look for profit. 11.5 is the line I am using for the over’s and under’s corners mark. Tottenham with the marauding Gareth Bale are proving to be Kings of the over’s. In 16 Premier League matches Spurs have gone over on 11 occasions, a 69% strike rate. They are especially prevalent at home with 6 from 7 League matches at the Lane going over. Conversely there’s not a great deal of corner action at the DW stadium where all 9 of Wigan’s home matches have went under 11.5 corners.

With half the season almost gone in the Premier League it looks safe to say that Wolves tremendous corners record is not merely a freak occurrence. With 16 matches played the team who sit 2^nd bottom of the league have gained corners supremacy in 8 games, drawn 6 and lost just 2. The best way to make a profit from this knowledge looks to be to play them gaining a corners handicap against the League’s elite sides. At Stamford Bridge they drew with Chelsea on the corner count 8-8. Away to Manchester United they lost only 2-3 and at home to Arsenal they out cornered the League leaders 5-3.

Two teams to oppose on corners markets are Blackpool and Blackburn. Blackpool love an open match although their total match corners have not been particularly high. From 15 matches they have only won corners supremacy 4 times and have particularly struggled at Bloomfield Road gaining most corners in only 1 match from 6.

Of the promoted sides West Bromwich Albion with the likes of Chris Brunt and Graham Dorrans are faring best when it comes to racking up corners winning corners supremacy in 7 matches from 8 a 88% strike rate.

Bets to look out for: Spurs over the 11.5 corners line at around 10/11. Wigan under 10.5 corners around evens at the DW and Wolves on the corners handicap +4 against the elite sides in the league at evens/11-10. Oppose Blackpool at home on the corners count and side with West Brom corner supremacy at home.

The A to Z of Tipster & System Reviews

Check out the new look Secret Betting Club website, which now features a full A to Z list of many of the tipsters we have reviewed and analysed.

Our latest reviews include: All By The Book, Bet Advisor, On The Nose, Northern Monkey, Green Sports Bets, Adys Lay of The Day, NFL Linebacker, Bet Devil, Packed Pockets, Bet Soft Pro & Bettor Logic.

There is also plenty written about Football Value, Signature Racing Tips, Simplebet, The Market Examiner, Herbie Fogg, Sportyy, Tipster 365, The Punter Club, Lee Bollingbroke & The Nagman

f you cant find a review on the service you are interested in, simply enter their name into the search the site box – chances are we have featured them in the past.

Visit here for more info: http:/www.secretbettingclub.com/info

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo provide English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier ratings and systems. Using their own in-house systems to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

Winabobatoo Football Match Ratings

The running total for bets I’ve advised to you in this column this season currently stands at:

Bets 14, Winners 7, Returns 19.72, Profit +5.72, ROI +40.85%.

Last weekend’s bet was cancelled, along with most of the weekend games. Let’s hope for better luck this weekend.

Personally, I don’t particularly like betting at odds shorter than 1.70 but there seems to be a stand-out bet at 1.67.

Stoke are solid at home, last lost 6 games ago, and are playing Blackpool. I have loads of time for Ian Holloway. He has done an excellent job for the Lancashire side but I don’t think they’ll take any points home with them from the Potteries.

The physical presence of Stoke will make it very hard for Blackpool.

This weekend’s selection is:

Stoke to beat Blackpool. Stoke are available at 1.67 with BetFred, Paddy Power, and Boyles.

Free Winabobatoo Mini-Magazine: Have you registered for your copy yet? There’s some interesting analysis with regard to betting on Premiership away teams that you need to know about…especially Chelsea fans; and there’s another Free Tip on a longer-priced lower league team.

A Statistical Fact: 14.46% of all away teams in the Premiership have been priced odds on since 2006-07 season. This compares to just 2.16% of away teams in the rest of the English leagues. Check out how the odds on Premiership teams have fared during this period in this week’s free Mini-Mag. Visit my website to get your copy now.

Good luck for the weekend.

Mike Lindley www.winabobatoo.co.uk

Visit The Winabobatoo Website

5. Systematic Soccer

Mat Hare runs Soccer Systems, a free blog where he is sharing the selections from 9 different portfolio systems this season. The selections generated by one of these systems (Game Form) are being exclusively posted on the Secret Betting Club forum this season. Each week in this column, Mat will also be sharing a sample of what the Game Form system has produced this weekend.

It warmed up round here last weekend and melted virtually all the snow. Unfortunately the snow wasn’t the only thing to suffer as my central heating also packed up and I am sat here typing this with gloves on as an army of heating engineers replace my boiler. There may not be snow on the ground but it’s still freezing!

Hopefully the worst of the cold snap has passed now and the sporting world can start to get back to normal. There was no bet on the Game Form Portfolio, partly due to the reduced fixture list, and it’s the same story this weekend too despite the fact that at the time of writing we look to have a full English league programme this weekend.

Saturday 11th December

No bet

Bets for the other Soccer Systems portfolios will be posted up on the blog as normal, assuming I can keep my fingers warm enough to use the keyboard!

Mat

6. Putting For Profit

Ian Richards runs Sportsbettingindex.com, a betting portal which includes an odds comparison site, free tips and betting blog – helping the punter for the last 10 years.

European Tour – South African Open
Asian Tour – Black Mountain Masters

The last two main events of the year before a much needed two week break – gone are the days when golf betting only really happened for nine months of the year at most!
This year’s South African Open comes from the Durban Country Club which held the event in 1998, 2002, 2005, with the winners being Els and Tim Clark twice. Last year Richie Ramsay won, breaking the South African stranglehold as they had won every renewal since 2002. The field is virtually identical to this week’s Alfred Dunhill Championship with the addition of the three “big guns” Els, Clark and Goosen.

Tim Clark will be glad to return to the Durban Country Club as his last three attempts in the event at different venues have been poor with finishes of 9/41/37. Goosen has fared somewhat better but each way backers beware as in his last ten appearances in his home open, he has won one, been 5th or tied four times and 6th twice, so you might be sweating on a payout! Els will no doubt start favourite having captured three titles in his last nine tries, but in 2007 and 2008 he blew his chances in the third round at Pearl Valley on both occasions shooting 77.

I will be back in the New Year to start all over again!
In the meantime have a very Happy Christmas.

That’s all for today! Have a great weekend…

The Weekend Wager is brought to you by

http://www.secretbettingclub.com

Best Regards,

Mike Bishop begin_of_the_skype_highlighting end_of_the_skype_highlighting and Dan Jones
Co-editors, Secret Betting Club

P.S. All new members get our full back catalogue when joining and considering we have recently published our 54th edition, that’s a huge amount of info all thrown in for free!