The Weekend Wager from Secret Betting Club

Posted on January 28, 2011 by  

Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced by the Secret Betting Club.

Each and every Friday through this column we bring together some of the finest experts to give you betting tips, advice and guidance for the next 7 days..

1. Mike Says..

In this column, Secret Betting Club co-editor and professional gambler Mike Bishop discusses some of the weeks most topical betting issues.

How to profit from this double act

Over the years there have been many famous double acts… Laurel & Hardy, Torvill & Dean, Shearer & Sheringham and not forgetting of course – Howard Webb & Manchester United!

In betting, pairing two good bets as a double act can be a great way to increase your returns…but there is some extra risk. For those not aware, with a double bet, you need both bets to win instead of betting on single outcomes.As this is less likely to happen, the odds are much bigger than betting on singles. Allow me to explain in a bit more detail.

Double up to double your profits.

Let’s say you think Fulham to beat Stoke and Spurs to beat Newcastle are both 50/50 shots, the odds in theory should be 2.0. If you can get anything above 2.0 (evens) on those matches, then you’ve got a value bet and should make a profit in theory. A quick check and as luck would have it, both Fulham and Newcastle are available at 2.2.

Your options:

  • 2 Singles: Back Fulham at home for 2.20 plus Spurs away at 2.20. Potential profit: 2.4 points.
  • 1 Double: Back Fulham at home for 2.20 AND Spurs away at 2.20. Potential profit: 3.84 points

If you continue to back enough 50/50 shots at 2.20 then your long term profit will be a 10% Return on Investment (£10 won for every £100 staked).

However if you placed those same bets as doubles, your return on investment rockets to 21% (£21 won for every £100 staked).

Would you swap bigger profits for a lower strike rate?

The general accepted theory when investing in anything is that to make bigger % profits, you have to take bigger risks.

Unfortunately this is the same when it comes to betting on doubles.

If we placed simple single bets on 50/50 shots at 2.2 like the ones above, we can expect to win 50% of the time and make a 10% Return on Investment.

With the double bets however, we will only win 1 in 4 times (25%), but when we do will make a 21% Return on Investment. Higher risk, but higher reward.

It’s that strike-rate for success (50% vs. 25%) that can make all the difference and really test your patience when doubling up! Could you take the longer losing runs in exchange for the higher profits?

Why bookies love doubles

Doubles betting of course is only as good as the bets you are placing or the tipsters you are following. If your bets don’t make a profit as a single, they won’t magically make a profit when bet as a double.

Many mug punters roll up short priced football bets in attempt to push up their returns with no concept of value. This is why bookmakers love you betting on doubles – If not used correctly, they can double your losses as well as profits.

The right way to bet on doubles

When done right though, doubling up can be an excellent string to your betting bow. One of our Hall of Fame tipsters proved this last month when they shrewdly advised 3 different double bets on the horses.

One such bet was a 0.25 pt each way double on two horses at 9/4 and 4/1, who both won. That was a 0.5 pt risk for an eventual 4.27 pt profit. Not huge odds but then it doesn’t have to be when doubling up.
Overall backing their3 advised double bets made 11.08 pts profit from 1.75 pts invested or if you had backed their bets in 6 singles, you would have made 2.8 pts profit from 1.75 pts invested.

A difference of 8.28 pts profit, so just goes to show how picking and choosing when to double like this is key!

Find out More

To re-cap, doubles betting can be very lucrative when done right, whether you pick them yourself or follow a tipster who advises them.

If this is of interest and you are keen to find out more about this topic, we have a whole range of strategy articles to assist. Our two part series on this topic explains everything about how to make this work for you, understanding the maths, how to obtain the best odds and where to bet.

We also feature a number of tipsters within our Hall of Fame that either advise double’s bets themselves or whose tips could help form the nucleus of a good doubles strategy.

All of this and much more is available as a Secret Betting Club subscriber. Sign up today for instant access.

Check out these other latest articles from our Blog this week

How To Judge How Potent A Tipster Is
Some of the simple calculations that you can use to calculate just how good any tipster is

Mike’s Football Bets This Season
Linked in with my column below on making a profit in the English Premier League.

Until next week…

Mike Bishop

2. Mike’s Football Bets

Mike analyses the forthcoming football betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value. This is part of a season-long experiment to see the likely returns from such an approach and to build up a public record.

Happy to see the back of last weekendwith all the derby games and draws that no doubt did for many a betting accumulator. A lot more value betting opportunities have sprung forth for this next round of games and I am expecting goals!

This is because I have quite a few over 2.5 goal bets this weekend, starting over at Bloomfield Road, where you can get a very tasty 1.9 in the game between Blackpool and Sunderland. Perhaps the bookies are over-reacting to Darren Bent’s move but the facts are that the Seasiders have gone overs in 100% of all home games this season and it’s a high-scoring trend that has been in place ever since Ian Holloway has been in charge. Sunderland will perhaps be better suited to playing just Asamoah Gyan upfront as a target man away and as always with Blackpool games, there is plenty of goal-mouth action!

Newcastle & Spurs are two other teams not noted for defensive solidity and indeed Spurs have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home this season whereas the Toon have gone over 2.5 goals in 73% of all fixtures at St James Park.  The overs line is 1.91 with Pinnacle, which estimates a 52.3% chance, and I make it closer to 60% in my book.

My third overs bet is in the midday kick off game featuring Wolves and Liverpool and both teams have struggled to stem the flow of goals this season. Wolves have gone overs in 55% of home games, whereas Liverpool have the same 55% marker away from home. Looking at it logically as well, both teams look very shaky at the back and if Torres fires up again, there should be goals. Dalglish will see this as a must-win game also. 10bet are offering 2.22 on the overs line, which is a 45% chance and looks too big for me.

I have one Main Asian Handicap bet on perennial favourites Bolton who you can back with a +1 start at 1.85 with Betinternet at home to Chelsea. Bolton are formidable at the Reebok, losing only once there this season against Liverpool (and rather unluckily so in my opinion). Chelsea as we know are far from convincing these days and have won just 3 away this season at Blackburn, West Ham and Wigan. I certainly can’t see more than a 1 goal win if Ancelotti’s men do get their act together and am siding with the Trotters once again, who have served me so well this season.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Blackpool V Sunderland1.90. Canbet/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Spurs. 1.91 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Wolves V Liverpool.2.22 10Bet
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Chelsea. 1.85 Betinternet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.25 goals. Fulham V Stoke.2.12 Pinnacle

Whatever you bet on, good luck!


*All odds quoted correct as of time these bets were posted at the SBC Blog.

Just to clarify, although we have members and some tipsters providing some free tips and systems, we are primarily a review service. Please dont expect miracles or read too much into this experiment!

Your Ultimate Betting Resource

The very latest issue of the Secret Betting Club newsletter is out NOW and features everything you need to know about making money including…

  • The free racing tipster who has made 163 pts profit since the start of 2010, which at simply £25 stakes is over £4000.
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  • The latest stats on the free racing system – the ‘4 Pronged Attack’ that each new subscriber to SBC has access to. In November it picked out only 6 bets but still had 2 big winners with Diamond Harry in the Hennessy at 9/1 and Menorah at 13/2. In just 123 bets since May 2010, this free system has made £4600 at £50 stakes.

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3. A Sporting Chance

Scott Armstrong is The Sportsman who provides his regular expert betting advice on a range of sports such as Darts, Racing & Football. Each week via this column you can find his latest betting insight and expect some advice in fairly untapped markets – his speciality!

The Sportsman has one Donald McCain ante-post bet running on Peddlers Cross to win the Champion Hurdle. Advised in August of last year at 20-1 Peddlers took the honours in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle and now sits at 6-1 best price in what looks a remarkably competitive affair this year. Now’s the time to take a plunge on another of Donald’s best horses for this year’s Grand National.

A year ago Donald nominated Ballabriggs as the horse to follow from his yard and he was certainly good to his word. He has ran four races since and scooped the lot at odds of 13-2, 2-1, 9-1 and on his comeback a few weeks ago at 100-30 with his haul including the 2010 Kim Muir at the Festival.

The horse had problems in the past which has resulted in him being lightly raced and for a ten year old he has limited miles on the clock. McCain will take the hurdles route before the Grand National weights are announced and that’s also been the campaign plan for recent Irish-trained National winners. Rated 150 his trainer is concerned about his mark for the big one but shouldn’t be unduly troubled with the last two winners Don’t Push It and Mon Mome rated 153 and 148 respectively.

The Grand National has changed beyond recognition from twenty years ago and lower rated runners generally struggle. With one more run expected over hurdles before Aintree, Ballabriggs should go to the big one with a decent mark.

Ballabriggs himself is a rangy, hardy beast with a decent turn of foot and is a stayer to boot. A solid jumper he has never actually fell on the track. On the two occasions when he failed to complete the course it was owing to slipping. Owner Trevor Hemmings has bought the t-shirt in this race, winning in 2005 with Hedgehunter and Coral’s 25-1 is a price worth taking. The press will go to town with the McCain legacy of training Red Rum in the Grand National and those pin sticking housewives are sure to send his odds tumbling for those that like a trade.

Advised to The Sportsman members this morning: 0.1 pt Ballabriggs to win Grand National @ 25-1 Coral.

The A to Z of Tipster & System Reviews

Check out the new look Secret Betting Club website, which now features a full A to Z list of many of the tipsters we have reviewed and analysed.

Our latest reviews include: All By The Book, Bet Advisor, On The Nose, Northern Monkey, Green Sports Bets, Adys Lay of The Day, NFL Linebacker, Bet Devil, Packed Pockets, Bet Soft Pro & Bettor Logic.

There is also plenty written about Football Value, Signature Racing Tips, Simplebet, The Market Examiner, Herbie Fogg, Sportyy, Tipster 365, The Punter Club, Lee Bollingbroke & The Nagman

f you cant find a review on the service you are interested in, simply enter their name into the search the site box – chances are we have featured them in the past.

Visit here for more info:

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo provide English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier ratings and systems. Using their own in-house systems to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

There’s plenty of football action to keep us busy this weekend. I’m spoilt for choice as to which game to give you from a long list of bookmaker over-pricings.

The good news that I can report is that Winabobatoo members’ profits are doing very well this season, with gains of over 30 points from following my Multiple System selections, for a gain of 10% on turnover. My Value ratings are showing a profit of over 50 points on the season from backing every one of those. The return on investment from backing those isn’t quite so good, as there are more of them, but that still comes in at around 7% ROI.

We’ll be adventurous with our bet this weekend and go for a longer-priced away team. We’ll take Hartlepool to win at Peterborough at 4.00.

I estimate that Hartlepool will win just under 30% of the time, which gives a long-term profit expectation of getting on for 20%.

This weekend’s selection is:
Hartlepool to win at Peterborough. Hartlepool are available at 4.00 with Coral, BetFred, Paddy Power, and some other bookmakers at the time of writing.

There’s a free Winabobatoo Mini-Magazine available to download if you visit my website. The Mini-Mag contains another free tip.

Good luck with your betting.

Mike Lindley

Visit The Winabobatoo Website

5. Putting For Profit

Ian Richards runs, a betting portal which includes an odds comparison site, free tips and betting blog – helping the punter for the last 10 years.

European Tour – Volvo Golf Champions – Bahrain (new)
PGA Tour – Farmers Insurance Open

Hopefully some of you followed my advice below for the Sony Open last week…
“On the PGA tour we see the first full field event of the 2011 season and if you like backing in an event with plenty of course form then this is your sort of event with the Waialae Country Club being used since 1965. Generally speaking the course is a tight par 70 so rewards the shorter more accurate players and reading down the list of winners over the past ten years it tends to go to experienced pros with a number of wins already under their belt.”

As I wrote on the blog this pointed me to four players and from those Mark Wilson Won at 100/1 and Tim Clark was 2nd at 35/1, so lets see if I can come up with any ideas for next week’s golf tournaments!

The European Tour stays in the Middle East but goes to a new venue in Bahrain so with no course form to go on the best advice would be to go for an in form player who plays well in the desert. I haven’t had time to have a close look at the course but if I do find anything out I will post it on the blog next week.

The PGA tour is at Torrey Pines which has been a Tiger Woods benefit gig in the past as he has been 3/1/2/4/5/1/10/1/1/1/1 there in the past and also won the US Open – that is pretty phenomenal! The question is, ‘Is he worth taking on?’ I would say yes, as the swing changes still might not have bedded in properly and also as he will be a very short price there will be each way value down the list. Course form is pretty vital round here so try and look for a player who has had at least one top ten at Torrey Pines.

When looking for golf statistics I find invaluable – I probably spend half my time researching on it – about 30 hours a week! Normally it is subscription only, but during the month of January it is free so check it out.

That’s all for today! Have a great weekend…

The Weekend Wager is brought to you by

Best Regards,

Secret Betting Club

P.S. All new members get our full back catalogue when joining and considering we have recently published our 55th edition, that’s a huge amount of info all thrown in for free!


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