The Weekend Wager – Epsom Derby Special

Posted on June 5, 2009 by  

Welcome to this the latest ‘Weekend Wager’ free betting column produced by Mike Bishop from the Secret Betting Club and Money Maker Review service.

I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member’s website Money Maker Review.

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1. Mike Says

Cricket has been turned on its head over the past few years with the success of the Twenty/20 cup and its rollercoaster ride of 4s and 6s that has got the crowds flocking in. It’s the type of Cricket that no doubt gave the likes of Geoffrey Boycott nightmares as players have sacrificed proper cricket shots in preference for the cross batted slog over cow corner. In a superbly ironic twist, its fitting that Boycott himself perhaps one of the slowest scoring players England has ever produced faced the first ever ball bowled in ODI cricket!
In fairness to Boycs though, he was reckless in comparison to the snail like Sunil Gavaskar who in 1975, helping India reply to England’s 334 from 60 overs, scored 36 not out from 174 balls!

Back to the modern day game though and the increase in popularity in Twenty/20 has opened up the world of possibilities that trading on this format can bring as it’s a short-sharp way of making money. It remains one of the best ways of making a profit from trading as most games are televised, take no longer than 3 hours and attract a lot of liquidity. No wonder it has been described as the ‘crack cocaine’ of sports trading, such is its addictiveness and the highs and lows it can bring.

With the Twenty/20 world cup starting today (and another one planned next year!), 2 English domestic tournaments and the success of the IPL, it is likely you will soon have year-round wall to wall Twenty20 action on which to trade. No wonder then it is so popular as a betting format and if you have yet to try your hand at live Cricket trading, it is a great time to get started.

Here at the Secret Betting Club we have been featuring regular insight and articles from our very own Cricket trading expert who is revealing some of the secrets of his success to members each month.  In his latest article published last week he revealed his specific strategy for successful Twenty/20 trading, just in time for its biggest tournament yet!  Certainly its opened my eyes to a variety of ways to green-up on the sport and I will be tackling a few of these myself personally over the next few weeks. (For the unaware – to ‘green-up’ is Betfair speak for making a profit whatever the outcome of a market).

If you are interested in Cricket trading, be sure to pick up the latest copy of the Secret Betting Club newsletter for more info.

(P.S. Also check out the Epsom Derby analysis from our racing experts below, who both pick out Fame and Glory & Black Bear Island as ones to watch in the big race!)

Mike Bishop
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2. The Next Week In Betting

That’s it, with the FA Cup out the way there is no more major European football now for the best part of 6 weeks or so (as I wont count England V Kazakhstan as a competitive game). Thankfully arriving just in time to fill this void we have plenty of other sports to have a punt on, not least the aforementioned Twenty/20 cup which starts today. Cricketing powerhouses Holland take on England who are a mighty short 1/14 with Sportingbet to take the spoils in the opening game of the tournament. The Dutch feature 2 very decent players though in Australian-based paceman Dirk Nannes and Essex batsman Ryan ten Doeschate, who on his day can certainly ‘clog’ the ball hard!

For this game, there is one betting market I like the look of, which is to be the top English batman, where I can’t be having Luke Wright at 4/1 compared to the 8/1 on Paul Collingwood. Wright maybe opening the batting but there are major doubts if he is international class and I will be on the Durham all-rounder at 8/1 with Bluesquare in this market.

Saturday and Sunday sees the tournament really get started with further games featuring the Aussies, South Africa, India & Sri Lanka, the 4 teams who head the overall bookies market to win. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the 3 rank outsiders here (Holland, Scotland or Ireland) picking up a major scalp during this tournament. They are generally priced up at double figures for each game, but could spring the odds surprise as Twenty/20 can see anything happen at times. Be careful if backing at short odds I say!

We also have the Darts equivalent of the FA Cup over the next week or so and money can certainly be made on this sport if you know your arrows! Phil ‘The Power’ Taylor is the overwhelming fave as always at a best priced 11/10 with Blue Square (who incidentally sponsor this tournament). We have our own Darts expert who we follow here and this morning he highlighted how some bookies have a complete lack of knowledge of this sport and are simply copying the prices that other bookies put forward. It is this lack of knowledge of the sport that can give us punters quite the edge here.

Elsewhere there is also Tennis action with the conclusion of the French Open, which saw massively odds-on favourite Rafa Nadal take a tumble earlier in the week. Roger Federer who has never won here is the current odds-on favourite at around 1/2 (Although with matches being played as I write this, the odds may change somewhat) and I wouldn’t want to back him at such a short price. We should at least be in for a cracking finals weekend, whatever happens.

Good luck with whatever you’re having a punt on this week.
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3. Tipping Legends Column

The Tipping Legends are 2 horse racing specialists who both have an in-depth knowledge of the sport and will be supplying a full rundown of some of the weekend’s feature races and betting angles. These guys know their stuff when it comes to racing, ignore at your peril.

Tomorrow Saturday sees the running of the Epsom Derby, and if we have a look at the last 10 outings there are some interesting stats.

(1) Biggest priced winner at 7/1 was Sinndar in 2000
(2) Average SP of the last 10 winners is only 9/2!
(3) Although the average price is only 9/2, only 2 favs have won,  Authorised in 2007 @ 5/4 & Motivator @ 3/1 in 2005 (Although 2 joint favs have won before)

Year      Horse                     Trainer    Jockey    SP
2008 NEW APPROACH Jim Bolger J Murtagh 5/1
2007 AUTHORIZED Peter Chapple­Hyam L Dettori 5/4 F
2006 SIR PERCY – M Dwyer 6/1
2005 MOTIVATOR M Bell J Murtagh 3/1 F
2004 NORTH LIGHT Michael Stoute Kieren Fallon 7/2 JF
2003 KRIS KIN Michael Stoute Kieren Fallon 6/1
2002 HIGH CHAPARRAL Aidan O’Brien Johnny Murtagh 7/2
2001 GALILEO Aidan O’Brien M J Kinane 11/4 JF
2000 SINNDAR John Oxx Johnny Murtagh 7/1
1999 OATH Henry Cecil Kieren Fallon 13/2

Looking at current odds for this years renewal, we have

Sea the Stars @ 3/1
Fame & Glory  @ 4/1
Rip Van Winkle @ 9/2
Black Bear Island @ 8/1
Gan Amrhas @ 8/1

If stats are to be followed it looks odds on that the winner should come from this group, all of which are trained in Ireland! (3 by Aiden O’Brien). Bearing in mind that no winner has started at odds greater than 7/1 in the last 10 years, perhaps we should only be looking at Sea the Stars, Fame & Glory and Rip Van Winkle.
At current odds of 3/1, 4/1 & 9/2, there will be plenty of serious punters backing all three and at these odds you make a profit if any of the three win!

I believe the race is wide open, but if the stats are to be followed, then the winner will surely be in the 5 I have listed.

So who will win?

Perhaps the most significant stat is that Aiden O’Brien has not won the Derby for 7 years! I reckon betting upon Fame & glory (4/1) Rip Van Winkle (9/2) & Black Bear Island (8/1) could pay dividends. Aiden also runs a couple of outsiders, but one of these three should be good enough
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4. Herbie Fogg

Statistical research lies at the heart of the service provided to subscribers at Horse racing expert Herbie Fogg runs three services: The Edge, Turfmax and a newly launched Saturday service, which enables non-members to obtain the Edge Saturday advice from £1.90 per week:

The Investec Derby Stakes (Group 1) at Epsom, 3.45pm Saturday 6th June.

Another small win for readers of this column last week with Main Aim justifying future entries in the Timeform Jury Stakes. With a proliferation of winners emerging lately from the pen of Fogg, this week we shall tackle one of the monsters of our calendar, our own historic Derby stakes. The Daddy of all Derby’s and a race which proudly bears the name of the 12th Earl of Derby, the sporting ancestor of the current Lord Derby of Ouija Board fame, and the Derby from which all others spring.

The first thing you notice about this year’s field is that there is no shortage of pace. Even after we prune down to the most likely candidates there is pace a’ plenty and the word is, of course, the Coolmore camp intend to make sure it stays that way. Whatever wins will have to be bred to stay, and then some.

I know there will be those who make a case for Crowded House but the trends say the Derby is invariably won by a horse returned at 12/1 or below. I happened to be on the one recent exception, Sir Percy, although that had more to do with Mrs Fogg and which, as they say, is another story. This time around the winner is very likely to emerge from a shortlist of: Black Bear Island, Fame And Glory, Gan Amhras, Rip Van Winkle & Sea the Stars.

I am writing this somewhat in advance (on Thursday) and from here it seems unlikely the going will come up good to firm – it’s currently good (good to firm in places), reading 8.2 and with showers (possibly heavy) very likely late Friday or on the day itself. Thus I shall approach this on the assumption that we will have simple genuine good ground.

Looking at their records it seems a few of these might not have been ideally suited by good to firm (Black Bear Island, Fame And Glory), so the assumption of good potentially throws it wide open.

I would love Sea The Stars to win this; because of the way in which he won the Guineas and because racing needs superstars, but his breeding, at least for the purposes of this race, leave him struggling to get home. Cape Cross isn’t normally considered an influence for stamina, but of course there are exceptions (Rising Cross to name but one). He had a couple of very good horses behind him in the Guineas, but whether they would still be behind him over 1/2 mile further raises a strong doubt in my mind. Other than that he oozes class.

Is Johnny sitting on the right one? I ask because he’s had a habit this season of not doing so and I suspect the Ballydoyle team have no sure idea who is the better candidate between Fame And Glory and Rip Van Winkle. Indeed Mr Magnier has always thought Fame And Glory a special horse and the final jockey bookings must be regarded as no certain guide. Of the two I am inclined to favour Fame And Glory as his breeding looks marginally stronger for this contest and he has proven credentials on an easier surface. We must also remember this is a horse yet to taste defeat and as tenuous as that may be it does count for something.

Which is a shame for Gan Amhras, who is a horse I want to believe in (although the price has a bit to do with that). He is bred for the distance through and through and could yet turn out to be the surprise package of the race, the difficulty is Rip Van Winkle got his Guineas 4th under noticeably less pressure and it remains a concern stepping up directly. The ground shouldn’t be a problem and there is no finer yard – if you’re looking for a bit of value then he could well be it, although it does require a certain leap of faith.

Another I want to believe in is Black Bear Island and if it came up easy this son of Saddlers Wells is another interesting value proposition. The way he came from last to first at York to eclipse Freemantle was most taking and he is sure to improve again stepped up. He’s on the small side, which isn’t a plus, but perhaps this race may just be set up for a horse with his kind of stride and finishing ability. If it were not for Fame And Glory I think he would have very strong credentials to be the Ballydoyle No.1 based on what he has achieved.

As things stand I think Fame And Glory is the one they all have to beat. He’s well drawn to be handy and throw down his challenge some way out. Of those tasked to run him down I feel Black Bear Island is a most worthy each way shot, while the surprise package of the race, albeit a complete imponderable could be Gan Amhras – although the market could be instructive. One thing however is certain, whoever wins will be some horse.

1pt win Fame And Glory, 1pt each way Black Bear Island

Bon chance,


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