The Weekend Wager

Posted on January 16, 2010 by Darren Hall

Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced courtesy of the team at the Secret Betting Club

Each and every Friday we bring together some of the finest betting experts to give you some of the best tips, advice and guidance to help you out with your next 7 days betting.

CONTENTS

1. Mike Says
2. The Next Week In Betting
3. Herbie Goes Racing
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender
5. Skeeve’s Non League
6. A Little Birdie Says..

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1. Mike Says..

In this column, Secret Betting Club founder and professional gambler Mike Bishop discusses some of the week’s most topical betting issues.

Consider this bet:

A bookmaker offers you odds of 10/1 on an event.
You know the event has only has 1 in 57 chance of success (1.76% probability)
Would you take this bet?
Well odds of 10/1 have an implied probability of 9.09%. In plain English this, this means to break even you need to win 9.09 times out of a hundred instead of 1.76 times, or persuade the bookmaker to give you odds greater than 57/1 (fat chance)
In other words, it’s a pretty crappy bet and you shouldn’t take it.
Yet millions of people take this bet every week across the UK and in a different form across the world.
I’m of course talking about the lottery – specifically the chance of you winning £10. The chance of you winning just £10 on the UK lottery is a paltry 1 in 57 for matching 3 numbers. You wouldn’t take those odds in the bookmakers, so why are we still attracted by this bet?

Yes of course…. The big one

At some point, we’ve all probably stopped to think about what it would be like to win the lottery. Not a few thousand here, but the big one, over a million. Most people know that the odds of winning are astronomical, but we still play just in case. Unfortunately, in the UK and in most lotteries, there’s a 1 in 14 million chance of winning. Given average luck, if you play the lottery once per week, it would take you a quarter of a million years to win the lottery once!
They really are astronomical odds! – It’s about the same odds as Simon Cowell getting a decent haircut.
Ok, before I’m pillaged for being a scrooge – There is an undeniable excitement in playing the lottery and many people play because they enjoy the weekly thrill of their numbers coming up. Most winners come from syndicates which pool winnings, but increase the chance that you’ll experience that winning feeling.
The funny thing is, when I get asked what I do, I explain that I’m a professional gambler. The reaction is either a jocular “give us a tip” or more usually a look of confusion mixed with sympathy.
I ask such people if they gamble and they usually say “no”. I ask them if they play the lottery and they say “yes”!
I personally don’t play the lottery and I hate casinos. I don’t like doing anything where I’ve no hint of an edge. The only way to make money from gambling in the long term is to find those little edges here and there.

Here at the Secret Betting Club we track over 50 tipsters, with many demonstrating they not only have an edge, but also know how to convert that into long term profits. Not only this, you also have access to some exciting strategies such as the Four Pronged Attack and tips on how to improve your own betting.
Whether it’s the lottery or the big football games, I wish you all the best with your gambling this weekend.

Mike Bishop

2. The Next Week in Betting

Mike analyses the forthcoming betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value.
We’ve a busy week ahead of this with the sporting calendar throwing up the Australian open, The African Nations cup and the South Africa test match.

Aside from these, the premiership bandwagon continues to roll on. There’s no clash of the titans on offer this week with the big teams largely avoiding each other, but there are certainly some intriguing matches in the offing.
Mid week, Liverpool lost to Reading in the FA cup and Rafa looks like he’s one bad defeat away from losing his position. Saturday’s match against Stoke looks to be a very tricky proposition, with Stoke best price 4.0 and Liverpool best price 2.25.

Ladbrokes are offering an incredibly specific bet, it’s quite a mouthful, so here goes – ‘Liverpool to not beat Stoke and Benitez to leave job before midnight Sunday January 17th’

Phew! I’m surprised they don’t also ask you to predict his choice of cereal on the morning of the big game as well. In all seriousness, I don’t normally bet on these fun bets, but at 7/1 I think there’s value in Stoke at least drawing the match for the first part of it. Jose Mourinho is 3/1 favourite to replace him, which seems ridiculously short to me.
At the African Cup of Nations, ‘Les Elephants’ as Ivory Coast are called (yes I had to Google that), are favourites to take the title for the second time. Didier Drogba is 7.5 at Paddy Power to take the top scorer slot. Considering they’re paying 3 places at ¼ odds, it could be worth an Each Way shout at this price.

It’s been an entertaining tournament so far with Malawi upsetting the odds by defeating Algeria 3-0. Considering Algeria have been drawn against England in the World Cup, even stern faced Fabio might have allowed himself a smile on seeing that result.

The Australian open starts on Monday and the usual suspects head up the betting order. There’s not much to choose between Federer and Nadal with the odds reflecting this. Muarry is firmly in the best of the rest pack, and 6.50 to take the title. Will he take his first Grand Slam in the year he drops out of the top 5 world rankings? I’m not so sure, especially as he’s in the same draw as Nadal.

Finally, as I write this, it looks as though the weather might just come to England’s rescue in the final test in South Africa. A drawn series still looks the most likely outcome, but provided Daryl Harper turns his microphone up, the series isn’t entirely beyond England’s reach.

Whatever you bet on this coming week, good luck!

Mike
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3. Herbie Goes Racing

Horseracing expert Herbie Fogg runs Key Racing News, a uniquely factual horseracing information service, which is free to register. By gamblers, for gamblers. Racing news…with a difference.

Following on from last week where we took a detailed look at the Lingfield, this week we turn to Kempton. The information below is also published in the resources section of keyracingnews.com along with data on Wolverhampton and Lingfield, with Southwell due shortly:

Kempton draw bias (all weather)

Flat 1 right-handed oval with more galloping bends than Wolverhampton or Lingfield, with a long straight on the ‘outer’ configuration, laid with Polytrack.

Inner course (shorter straight): 5fl & 1m 2fl
Outer course (long straight): 6fl, 7fl, 1m, 1m4fl & 2m

Although it is essentially the same surface, due to the more galloping nature of the outer track it pays to assume that form from Lingfield and Wolverhampton, may not necessarily translate well – as these are tracks where a burst of speed often pays dividends. Kempton is regarded as a fair track with a good surface – but if you look carefully through the notes you will notice some subtle angles exist.

Jockeys naturally adapt to draw bias over time, so we have deliberately focussed on the last 2 years’ results – to verify existing opinions and to make the data as current as possible, with cross checking over longer periods.

Percentages are wins to runs, to 14/01/2010:

5fl 0yds – stalls position HIGH

Actually far less trappy than you might imagine based on the layout, with few stalls having a seriously detrimental impact. Stalls 11 & 12 (high rails draw), however, do continue to enjoy a reasonable advantage, with those drawn 9, 10 & 4 not far behind.

Generally speaking those drawn out wider are disadvantaged, but perhaps not quite as much as you might imagine. There is an anomaly regarding stall 4, which is above average (an anomaly which holds up over all terms queried) – particularly so in fields up to 10 runners. Stall 2 is the hardest to win from.

Best stalls: 12 (18.8%), 10 (15.6%), 11 (15.4%), 4 (14.3%), 9 (14.0%)
Worst stalls: 2 (6.6%)
Neutral stalls: 7 (10.3%), 3 (9.8%), 6 (9.6%), 5 (8.8%), 1 (8.6%) , 8 (8.5%)

Std-slow: stalls 11, 12, 9 & 4 show up well above average. The remainder broadly as above.
Std-fast: insufficient data
Slow: no data

6fl 0yds – stalls position HIGH

Extremely similar results obtained over 2 and 5 years.

Stalls 12 & 8 have a significant advantage, with their neighbours in 1 & 7 also above average. Everything else is deemed neutral. In particular, stall 8 looks a place to search for value propositions.

Best stalls: 8 (17.0%), 12 (16.7%), 7 (12.7%), 11 (11.2%)
Worst stalls: none
Neutral stalls: 9 (10.5%), 5 (9.5%), 4 (9.5%), 3 (9.2%), 6 (9.0%), 10 (8.6%), 1 (8.4%), 2 (8.0%)

Std-slow: nothing has won in the last 5 years from stall 12, so it appears something profound happens to the ground on the far rail in these conditions. However stalls 10 & 11 have done extremely well from around the same number of races. The rest are neutral except stalls 1, 3 & 9 which should be avoided.
Std-fast: stalls 11 & 12 show up well above average, the rest look broadly neutral albeit on limited data
Slow: no data

7fl 0yds – stall position HIGH

It would be unwise to get too carried away with the bias over 7fl, and yet clearly those drawn centrally who break well and obtain a good sit do best – notably to the disadvantage of those drawn high, who run the risk of being squeezed on the rail and shuffled back. The wide stalls don’t have an easy time but remain winnable. Little has changed over 5 years, so to smooth the curves we’ve used 5 year results here:

The main point is that popular (overbet) horses drawn high are potentially well worth opposing if a good value alternative can be found.

Best stalls: 10 (14.3%, 9 (13.3%), 6 (13.3%), 8 (11.0%), 4 (11.0%)
Worst stalls: 3 (7.9%), 11 (5.6%), 14 (3.4%)
Neutral stalls: 5 (10.1%), 13 (10.0%), 1 (9.7%), 7 (9.6%), 2 (9.6%), 12 (8.5%)

Std-slow: avoid stalls 12, 13 & 14. Stalls 7, 8 & 11 have done best.
Std-fast: insufficient data
Slow: no data

8fl 0yds – stalls position HIGH

We see a similar general position to 7fl, where barring stall 13 those drawn high can get shuffled back to the benefit of those breaking well and cutting across from the centre. These biases throw up very similar results over 2 or 5 years. Again, an overbet horse drawn 14 might well be one to oppose.

Best stalls: stalls 5-8 (average 13.66%), stall 13 (15.2%)
Worst stalls: 14 (4.3.%), 11 (6.3%), 12 (7.5%)
Neutral stalls: stalls 1-4, 9 & 10 (average 9.6%)

Std-slow: insufficient data
Std-fast: insufficient data
Slow: no data

Bon chance,
Herbie

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo are English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier betting experts. Using their own excellent football system to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

Winabobatoo Weekend Football Guide

The weather has played havoc with events of late. Some teams haven’t seen any action for quite some considerable time. Three games have already been called off though: Tranmere v Yeovil; Barrow v Histon; and Wrexham v Stevenage. Rotherham, for example, last played on 12th December 2009. It is vitally important that we have some clues as to the current well being of teams. Without this, we are taking too many things for granted.

Successful betting is all about taking calculated risks. We can never remove the risk element totally. I feel we are batting with one hand tied behind our backs this weekend as we have insufficient knowledge of current form.

I won’t be betting and I have recommended the same to all my members at Winabobatoo. We need to give things a week or two to settle back down again.

I appreciate that not betting can be frustrating but discipline, and betting at the right time, should always remain the priority. There will be many better betting opportunities in the coming weeks and months.

I have some free downloads available from my website if you fancy a spot of interesting betting reading.
www.winabobatoo.co.uk
Mike Lindley

5. Skeeve’s Non League

Skeeve is our resident non-league football betting expert who each week shares his best advice for this weekend’s domestic lower league action.

Hi everybody,

2009 is long forgotten (of course it isn’t – it was the best year ever, at least at Skeeve’s picks), the break caused by the weather is starting to seriously frustrate everyone involved and I really hope most of the non-league games will go ahead this time. Here’s one of the five picks I’ve sent to my clients a few hours ago.

cheers,
Skeeve

16/1/2010

BLUE SQUARE PREMIER

Kettering – (0) RUSHDEN 2 (2.00 @Paddy Power) 4 units

Rushden are looking for a third consecutive win (1:0 vs Billericay in the FA Trophy, 2:1 vs Kidderminster on Boxing Day) and I’m sure this is the ideal time for playing at Kettering. But, let’s put Kettering’s problems aside for a bit, if you’re worried about Rushden’s results in late November and early December, before these two recent wins, you should know that they had a very tight schedule (that’s including a heartbreaking 2:3 FA Cup defeat at Brighton) and as soon as they had a week off, they returned to the winning ways (they had seven consecutive wins before that mini-crisis slash FA Cup hangover). But, I admit, this is a bet against Kettering as much as it’s a bet on Rushden. I already wrote about departures – and by departures I don’t mean releasing a couple of fringe players. They’ve lost their manager, assistant manager, controversial chairman and more than a couple of key players (not only giant defender Geohaghon and forwards Green and Spencer – Bain and Dobson have both returned to their parent clubs and Elding left for Hungary), that’s four defeats and a goalless draw with Tamworth in the last five (they’ve lost to Salisbury, at Leeds in the FA Cup, to Barrow in the FA Trophy and at Histon), they haven’t won a home game for almost four months (four defeats and two draws in the last six home games) and off-field problems indicate that 2010 could be a tough year for Kettering. Anyway, anything better than 1.80 for this draw-no-bet looks great to me.

(1.95 at Bet365, 1.92 at The Greek btw, 1.91 at Will Hill and also at Sportingbet btw, 1.83 at Victor Chandler…)

6. A Little Birdie Says…

Roger Green of the Birdie Golf tipster service is the latest contributor to the Weekend Wager. Previously supplying advice under the Tipping Legends banner, he has been providing golf tips since 1987 and has spent his entire life working in the golf industry.
“Its not over until the fat lady sings”.
So very true in Golf!
Last week, Rory Sabbatini went into the final round 6 shots off the lead. Shot 10 under and only missed out by one shot!

I mention this, as it illustrates how interesting betting on golf can be. As I always say, betting on golf is like having a horse race that lasts 4 days! Odds change throughout the race, and you can trade at any time

Quite a few SBC members have joined the Birdie Golf Service in recent months, and I know that many are “feeling” their way betting and trading, and have asked if I could give more examples in my column.

Let’s look at the Sony Open currently completed first round. I have tipped Pat Perez at 50/1 as a good ew bet.

Also tipped him a strong 2 point bet to be a top 10 finish at 4/1

After the first round, Pat is 4 under, one shot off the lead. I have backed him £50 EW at 50/1.

He is currently trading on the exchanges at around 22/1 so I am not interested at this stage. I will monitor his progress, and hopefully he will remain in contention so that he will trade in single figures and I can trade out and make my profit

With the Bet top 10 finish, I bet £500 at 4/1. He is now 6/4 on the exchanges, so I have covered myself with £900-£600, so I am in a no lose situation.

The season is really taking off now and I know some of you like to be informed of the up and coming events

European Tour

January 20-24    Abu Dhabi Golf Challenge
January 28-31    Quatar Champ. Duha
February 4-7      Omega Classic Dubai

US PGA Tour

January 20-24   Bob Hope Classic California
January 28-31   San Diego Open, Torrey Pines, California
February 4-7     Northern Trust Open, Riviera GC , California

Thanks for all your emails. I will always respond, though it may take a couple of days when the site is busy. Special. I can be contacted at birdiegolf@live.co.uk

Roger Green
Good Golfing

That’s all for today! Have a great weekend…