The Weekend Wager

Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced courtesy of the team at the Secret Betting Club

Each and every Friday we bring together some of the finest betting experts to give you some of the best tips, advice and guidance to help you out with your next 7 days betting.

CONTENTS

1. Mike Says
2. The Next Week In Betting
3. Herbie Goes Racing
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender
5. Skeeve’s Non League
6. A Little Birdie Says..

The Latest News On What’s Making Money Betting

Issue 44 of the Secret Betting Club newsletter is out now and full of everything you need to make money betting including:

• Are you missing out on football profits? Our exclusive guide to using Asian & offshore bookmakers explains how to get the best odds from the new wave of bookmakers. We tell you who to trust and what small print to watch out for.

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• The only place you’ll find in depth and independent reviews of Hugh Taylor and the Racing Post’s Pricewise Extra.
• An exclusive review of the easy to follow horse racing tipster who has made over 51 points profit proofed to us since June.
• How one of our members makes a healthy profit each football season betting on niche football markets like corners and booking points.

Our resident expert shows reviews a horse tipping service run by professionals, for professionals AND shows you how to increase profits. Join today risk free with our 100% money back guarantee at http://www.secretbettingclub.com

1. Mike Says..

In this column, Secret Betting Club founder and professional gambler Mike Bishop discusses some of the week’s most topical betting issues.

Hello and welcome back to the weekend wager. If you’re in the UK or Northern Europe, I hope you’re wrapped up warm!

There’s certainly a lot of hot air being generated over the proposals by UK horse racing authorities to switch from the old fractional betting odds in favour of decimal. Fractional betting is a throwback to the years of pounds shillings and pence, but is still loved by traditionalists.

For those still new to betting, in the UK betting odds are expressed primarily as fractions. However, in recent years and over in Europe, betting odds are expressed in decimal.

Here’s some examples –

15/8 Fraction – 2.875 Decimal. Bet £10 to make £18.75 profit.
11/4 Fraction – 3.75 Decimal. Bet £10 to make £27.50 profit.

Although many traditionalists will be against this move, clearly decimal betting makes a lot more sense. We don’t buy our daily bread with tuppence hap’ney anymore so why should we still bet with fractions?

In the December edition of Secret Betting Club we have a big feature on the rise of Asian Bookmakers. These Asian giants and Betfair are bringing stock market principles to the betting world.

Their odds compilers might put a bet on Arsenal vs. Liverpool up at 3.5 (5/2) then adjust it slightly based on the flow of money as happens in Betfair. This might mean cutting odds to 3.48 or 3.47.

You don’t see these sort of subtle adjustments with UK bookmakers, partly because the next fractional odds down from 5/2 (3.50) is 12/5 (3.40), which is a big jump. 3.49 in fractional odds is 249/ 100, is there any point!

Betting is changing and only those who adapt will survive, whether a punter or a bookmaker. Make sure you’re ahead of the betting crowd by becoming Secret Betting Club member today.

Mike Bishop
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2. The Next Week in Betting

Mike analyses the forthcoming betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value.

As I write this, Jack frost is causing havoc across the UK and Northern Europe with many sporting fixtures postponed or in danger of being called off. A few more winters like this and we might be able to put out a half decent winter Olympic squad (coming up next month by the way).

Most Premier league games are still going ahead, but as you move through the lower leagues, the fixture list is barren.

Fulham vs Portsmouth, Sunderland vs Bolton are both off and Liverpool vs Spurs is doubtful off. The good news is that despite rumours of intense lobbying from Robinho, the Man City Blackburn game looks like it will go ahead.

Mancini signing Vierra for Man City has raised a number of eyebrows. Skybet were quick off the mark with some special Vierra bets. You can bet on him to score under or over 1.5 goals for city at 5/6. At least this ‘fun’ bet highlights the fact that Vierra has scored just 2 goals in the last 2 seasons for Inter, seriously questioning the impact he may have. You can even bet on him ‘to be sent off this season’ at 9/4. Personally I doubt he’ll be fired up enough for there to be any danger of this. I don’t know how these players get out of bed sometimes…….

No problems with the weather down in Siff Iffrica where England are in a comfortable position of 1 – 0 up. The worst they can come away with is a drawn series, which given England’s record down there is a fair achievement in itself.

Credit to Ian Bell for steadying the ship with Paul Collingwood in the nail bighting finisher to draw the last test. It was left to the two Graeme’s to finish the job though.

At the start of the series, I mentioned Graeme Swann as a value choice for top English bowler at 5/1. He’s now fave at best price 1.33, but Anderson is just 3 runs behind and may be worth a saver at 3.75 with Bet365 so a profit is made no matter the outcome.

I also mentioned Collingwood to be top English Batsman at 8/1. Cooky and Bell look like they’ll take the honours at 2.88 each, but cricket is a funny game and I wouldn’t bet against Colly batting out for another valiant draw. If pushed I’d back Cooky for a saver, even with the recent innings, Bell is too inconsistent for me.

And finally, cold weather won’t stop the BDO darts final. As usual it will be a hot house in the arena with the players being egged on by their (not so) model wives and girlfriends. There’s little to choose between the main contenders (Waites, Chisnall, Oshea and Adams), so I’ll be sitting back and enjoying the fun.

Darts has been described as part sport, part Phoenix nights. Indeed, Anthony Fleet’s wobbly knee capitulation in the World Darts Championship recently was comedy gold. It is up there as one of the top 10 sporting chokes, but this will never beat my all time favourite Jean Van de Velde in the 1999 Golf open.

Whatever you bet on this coming week, good luck!

Mike

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3. Herbie Goes Racing

Horseracing expert Herbie Fogg runs Key Racing News, a uniquely factual horseracing information service, which is currently free to register. By gamblers, for gamblers. Racing news…with a difference.

Compliments of the season to you all. Bit of a minefield this week with all the weather about so I’ve paused to update our records on the draw bias at Lingfield. The information below is also published in the resources section of keyracingnews.com along with data on Wolverhampton. Next week, I will update Kempton and Southwell.

Lingfield draw bias (all weather)

Gently sloping, 1.2 mile semi-triangular course with tight bends, using Polytrack (freshly renewed in 2009). The configuration is often apt to promote a muddling, tactical pace.

The Lingfield all weather track is the 7th hardest course in the country to win from the front (less than 10% of races here are won in this way). In particular, Mark Johnson transformed his strike rate after modifying his tactics front running tactics at this venue.

The ground nearest the far (inside) rail is the slowest in the straight, the fastest ground is in the centre – which is why a rails draw is not necessarily helpful over sprint distances.

Jockeys naturally adapt over time to a draw bias, so we have focussed on the last 2 years’ results – to challenge existing opinions and to make the data as current as possible, but cross checking results over longer periods.

Percentages are wins to runs, to 06/01/2010:

5fl 0yds – stalls position HIGH

Stalls 3 to 6 enjoy a significant advantage. Those drawn in stall 1 or stalls 8-9 are at a significant disadvantage. Stalls 7 & 2 are broadly neutral. There is an anomaly regarding stall 10 which is the 3rd most successful, which also holds true over 5 years+.

Best stalls: 3 to 6 (average 15.81%), also stall 10 (16.3%)

Worst stalls: 9 (5.4%), 8 (8.1%), 1 (8.4%)

Neutral stalls: 7 (9.8%), 2 (11.9%)

Std-slow: avoid stall 7 or above

Std-fast: results become erratic

Slow: avoid stall 7 or above

6fl 0yds – stalls position LOW

Stalls 2 & 3 do best, other stalls are broadly neutral except stalls 1 and 12. Stall 1 has been particularly poor recently – in 2009 stall 1 was 2-89 (2.2%). Of the ‘neutral’ stalls, stall 6 is borderline (although better long term), but in recent years has been two points below average and worse again in 2009, returning 5-84 (6.0%).

Best stalls: 2 (16.0%), 3 (14.1%)

Worst Stalls: 1 (6.4%), 12 (7.0%)

Neutral stalls: 4 to 11 (average 10.73%) – note concerns re: stall 6

Std-slow: avoid stall 10 and above

Std-fast: results become erratic

Slow: insufficient data

7fl 0yds – stalls position LOW

No draw bias

Bon chance,

Herbie

Visit Key Racing News

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo are English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier betting experts. Using their own excellent football system to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

Winabobatoo Weekend Football Guide

I hope 2010 is treating you well and the UK weather isn’t affecting you too much.

The football fixtures have taken a hammering with the prospect of some more games being called off before kick off. I remember the big freeze of 1963. Surely we can’t be in for sub-zero temperatures for another month or more? Let’s hope not.

Where does this leave us from a betting point of view for the weekend?

Of the games currently on, at the time of writing, Leeds, Arsenal, and Norwich look like banker home wins. The downside is that that is reflected in their prices: 1.25, 1.40, and 1.37.

My records show that since August 2000, there have been 702 games where the home team has been priced between 1.25 and 1.40. A one point stake on each home side would have resulted in backing 524 winners (75%), getting back 698.77 points for the 702 points staked, showing a loss of -3.23 points, or -0.46% on turnover. 25% of the time the banker doesn’t win, and that is enough to make it difficult to profit from games with odds so short.

The banker aways this weekend look like Man Utd to win at Birmingham, and Chelsea to win at Hull. They are priced 1.57 and 1.36. Backing odds on aways in the Premiership this season has been a bloodbath for bettors.

Between 26^th September and the end of 2009, there were 25 such matches. Backing the odds on away team resulted in just 9 winners from 23 bets, returning 13.67 points, for a loss of -11.33 points, or -45.32%. What is the fate for Man Utd and Chelsea?

Looking at the other matches that are on, there are quite a lot of contradictions between class and form. For example, Kettering are much better than Ebbsfleet, but Ebbsfleet are in much better form. These types of games are usually difficult to call.

In the long-term, my biggest profits come from backing teams at longer odds. The downside is that the “ups and downs” are greater, the losing runs can be longer, and it can appear as though you are swimming against the tide.

Successful betting requires a long-term view. Recommended bets to my members have produced over 100 points profit over the last two and a half seasons, but we have to endure some fluctuations in fortune along the way.

The only bets I have had this weekend are on Barnsley to win at Coventry, they are available at 3.00, and Swansea to win at Middlesbrough, available at 3.30.

My Bets: Swansea to win at Middlesbrough (3.30) and Barnsley to win at Coventry (3.00).

Good luck with your betting. Stay safe during the bad weather. I have some free downloads available from my website if you fancy a spot of interesting betting reading. www.winabobatoo.co.uk

Mike Lindley

Visit The Winabobatoo Website
Read our review of the Winabobatoo service

5. Skeeve’s Non League

Skeeve is our resident non-league football betting expert who each week shares his best advice for this weekend’s domestic lower league action.

Unfortunately, most non league games have been cancelled.

Visit Skeeve’s Website
Read our review of Skeeve’s service

6. A Little Birdie Says…

Roger Green of the Birdie Golf tipster service is the latest contributor to the Weekend Wager. Previously supplying advice under the Tipping Legends banner, he has been providing golf tips since 1987 and has spent his entire life working in the golf industry.

We ended 2009 with a nerve tingling finish to the S.African Open. I advised Anders Hansen 2pt win at 14/1 and Shiv Kapur EW at 66/1. Really exciting to watch and plenty of chances for trading throughout the 4 days! Anders missed the play off by one shot ( double bogey on 4th!) and Kapur lost in the play off!. Still a profitable week

Already we have some excitement on the US tour where my tip, Nick Watney( in my ten to follow for 2010) is one shot off the lead, after the first round. Tipped at 18/1, we can already trade lower if we wish ( Currently 8/1) and our other ew bet Paul Casey is not out of it

Remember there are tournaments each week now on both tours, right up to December. Hopefully snow free!! Should be OK in Hawaii & South Africa

It’s going to be a fascinating year with the Tiger Woods saga and it is also Ryder Cup year ( Celtic Manor in October)

It’s always interesting as players on both sides try and gain enough points to get automatic qualification for their team.Well worth monitoring those players lying between 7-15th in the qualification table as they will enter as many events as possible in order to gain points

Also going to watch the US seniors Tour this year as several interesting ‘rookies’ have joined this year. New boys include Fred Couples, Peter Senior, Mark Calvavecchia, Paul Azinger & David Frost

Happy to answer any queries you have, just contact me at birdiegolf@live.co.uk

Good Golfing

Roger Green

That’s all for today! Have a great weekend…

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