The Weekend Wager – 18/04/09

Posted on April 18, 2009 by  

Welcome to this the latest ‘Weekend Wager’ free betting column produced by Mike Bishop from the Secret Betting Club and Money Maker Review service.

I work as part of the team at the Secret Betting Club where we uncover exactly which experts, systems and tipsters you should follow to make money betting. As well as proofing dozens of tipsters we also include monthly articles on professional gambling tips and betting strategies. Every article and review we put together is also listed at our new member’s website Money Maker Review.

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1. Mike Says

If you asked me what would be the one key principle that I have found to be essential for successful betting, I would reply instantly with just one word…. VALUE

For me, getting a value price always has and always will be critical to making money betting, but at times it can take a little getting your head around if new to the concept. I was last weekend explaining to a friend of mine about my value approach and how it clashes with his idea of betting for winners, and it makes for an interesting tale.

He was studying the Saturday race-cards in the morning, and he started to ask me who I thought would win each race. Quick as a flash I told him that I imagined the favourite in each race was the most likely to win, and that if he wanted to get a winner, he should back the horse at the head of each market! He didn’t look impressed with my response as he had wanted to tap into my betting acumen, so after winding him up a bit more (like all good friends should!) I sat down with him and began to explain a bit more…

In doing so I told him about my approach, that although the favourite for a race was indeed the most likely to win, that if he wanted to make a real betting profit, he needed to pick out the horse with the most value. Not just the horse most likely to win.

To give an example of this, by value I meant backing a horse which is available at 10/1 but which you believe should only be 8/1. In doing this, you would have a 20% edge over the odds.

The only problem this brings is that the 8/1 horse will only win the race 1 out of every 8 times. The saving grace being that when it does win, I am on it at 10/1 and that 20% edge is mine. I don’t make that profit on every race, far from it but if I am patient I will do so overtime. My friend is now a convert to the concept of value betting and I have been helping him out this week getting started with his own betting portfolio!

Of course we all want to back winners, but I guess the question has to be at what price?

Mike Bishop
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2. The Next Week In Betting

Absolutely tons to sink our teeth into on the betting front this coming weekend, with amongst others the Chinese F1 Grand Prix, The IPL Cricket tournament and of course, Britain’s Got Talent!

I have to be honest and say I didn’t watch last Saturdays Britain’s Got Talent, as I chose to watch some paint dry in the next room instead (It was either that or watch a DVD of English highlights from the last Ashes series – a very short program!). Plenty of people did watch it though and have been having a wager this week with a lot of money down on the shows overnight sensation, Susan Boyle, the hither-to unknown Scot. She has become an unlikely source to strike fear into the heart of the bookmakers as she will cost them a small fortune if she wins, which looks likely now with her being 11/10 best price with Boylesports to win outright. At the very least, she will give the panellists of ‘Loose Women’ something to witter on about!

Football wise, as well as the usual Premier League card we turn our attention to the FA Cup semi-finals at Wembley. Arsenal face Chelsea on the Saturday and both teams are red-hot upfront but struggling at the back, which in Arsenal’s case is down to injuries. Hopefully we can see a real goal-glut and another fantastic high-scoring game with Over 2.5 goals 4/6 with Paddy Power. You can even get 7/1 on over 4.5 goals with Paddy Power as well which may appeal! In the other game I don’t expect to see such a free-flowing game and think the 1-0 for either side to win looks value. You can get 6/1 with Bet365 on a 1-0 win for United, and a big 12/1 with Bluesq on the same scoreline for Everton to win.

My very ad-hoc system for backing teams away from home in the Championship seems to be doing alright at the moment with Doncaster at 4/1 and Sheff Utd at 12/5 winning last week. I wonder whether any joy will come from Sheff Utd (7/4 Betfred), Doncaster (12/5 Bet365) and Bristol City (A massive 4/1 with Bet365 away at Swansea)?

Formula 1 moves over to China after the farce in Malaysia (which was always on the cards) and Jenson Button looks very good to win again. He is now best priced 11/10 with Corals and barring a crash or engine failure, he should do the honours here again. Both he and his Brawn team-mate Rubens Barrichello are odds-on to finish on the podium, and our very own Lewis Hamilton is now best priced 4/1 to do this also with Extrabet. There could be mileage in a big priced each way bet to finish on the podium such as Jarno Trulli and Timo Glock (both 18/1 with Stan James).

Starting tomorrow we also have the return of the IPL, which this year has moved over to South Africa. A lot of the talk surrounding this tournament is of brands, advertising and money and it would be a real shame to see Cricket go down the same route as football, with huge wages and expensive tickets. Despite all this, if you are looking for an edge on your Cricket betting, this tournament maybe a great place to be involved with as the bookies cant pick out clear favourites, with all 8 teams rated at between 7/2 and 8/1. One of the first games on Saturday sees Shane Warne’s champions last year The Rajasthan Royals take on the Bangalore Royal Challengers led by our very own Kevin Pietersen. The best price on Bangalore is 10/11 with Stan James and evens on Rajasthan with Paddy Power.

Good luck with whatever you’re having a punt on this week.


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3. Tipping Legends Column

The Tipping Legends are 2 horse racing specialists who both have an in-depth knowledge of the sport and will be supplying a full rundown of some of the weekend’s feature races and betting angles. These guys know their stuff when it comes to racing, ignore at your peril.

This week we have a look at tomorrows Scottish Grand National at Ayr

The Scottish Grand National is a Grade 3 National Hunt horse race for five-year-old and above horses run over a distance of 4 miles 1 furlong (6,639 metres) at Ayr Racecourse in April. It is a handicap chase, and is often contested by horses which ran previously in the Grand National at Aintree. There are twenty-seven fences to be jumped in the race.

The race moved to its present venue in 1966 after the closure of its original venue, Bogside Racecourse, where the race had been run over a distance of 3 miles 7 furlongs (6,236 metres) since 1867.

The stats tell us that 9 horses have won carrying less than 10 stone in the last 42 years (since it moved to Ayr), but 3 of those winners were in the last 4 years!!

Equally 9 winners have carried more than 11st and won. However 50% of winners have carried between 10st and 10st 6lbs

31 of the winners have carried less than 10st 7lbs and only 6 entries fall into that group tomorrow. Chiaro, Sea diva, King Barry, Le Toscan, Native Coral and L’Aventure..

Horses to win in the past carrying more than 11st were the likes of Grey Abbey, Young Kenny, Playlord & Red Rum. Nothing of that calibre is carrying over 11st tomorrow, so there is a good chance the winner will come from the bottom six, especially if they have had more rain.

Visit The Tipping Legends Website

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo are English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier betting experts. Using their own excellent football system to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are sharing one of their ‘star’ bets every week with us. Star bets are their best rated, best value bets and worth following in with a few bob of your own.
The business end of the football season is upon us. The ups, downs, and Champions, will be determined over the next couple of weeks. It’s always a fascinating time of the year for anyone remotely interested in football.

Leicester have been head and shoulders above everyone in League One this season, and a win at Southend will seal the title for them. Southend are not a bad team by any means, but Leicester should have too many aces up their sleeve for them. Leicester won the home game 3-0, with a Matt Fryatt hat-trick, and a repeat performance would be welcome here.

Have a bet on Leicester to beat Southend at 11/8 (2.38) available  with Ladbrokes and BetFred

Good luck with your betting.

Mike Lindley ( )

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5. Skeeve’s Non-League

Skeeve is our resident Non-League betting expert who will be sharing with you his best advice for this weekend’s domestic non-league card. What Skeeve doesn’t know about all things semi-pro aint worth knowing and the bookies hate it as lets face it they know next-to nothing about football at this level.

Hi everybody,

Another bet won last weekend, +46 units profit (46.9% RoI) after 22 free picks:


22 98 144.02 16-2-4 +46.02 146.9%

The season’s not over yet, the last play-off final (the Blue Square Premier one) is being played on May 17th, but it’s safe to say that this has been another great season at Skeeve Picks. Me and my clients already placed two long-term bets this season and one of them looks very good indeed (the odds were 3.75 when I’ve sent the pick exactly three months ago), but there will be more long-term bets in the next couple of weeks, no doubt about that. I’m not expecting another 332% RoI May (I’ve placed four long-term bets last season and all four were won), but I do expect to make some more profit from now until the end of the season.

The membership and the waiting list are both closed for the rest of the season. Everyone who ends the season as a Skeeve Picks subscriber will be offered a spot for next season and if someone drops out, I’ll contact the first guy on the waiting list for next season. If you want to be on the waiting list for next season, feel free to send me an e-mail.





NEWPORT – Thurrock 1  (1.85 @Victor Chandler) 4 units

Do bookmakers even know that Team Bath resigned from the Blue Square South and that Fisher and Bognor are already relegated which means that Thurrock won’t get relegated? Do they know about Newport’s recent performances (four wins in a row – 1:0 at Bognor, 4:0 vs Fisher, 1:0 at Dorchester, 4:2 vs Team Bath; their best striker Reid scored in every of those four matches; six wins and a draw in the last eight; as much as eight goals scored in the last two home matches)? Do they know that Thurrock are the 3rd worst away team in the league (3-7-10), that they only have one win in the last five months (and that was at home against poor Fisher back in January, barely a 2:1 win) and that they will be without midfielder Hughes who is suspended? I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t. Bet365 and Sportingbet almost got it right (1.73), the odds on this home win should never ever be above 1.67.

(1.85 also at Bwin, 1.83 at Blue Square, Coral, Paddy Power, StanJames and also at BetFred, BoyleSports and Gamebookers…)

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