The Weekend Wager

Posted on March 26, 2010 by  

Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced courtesy of the team at the Secret Betting Club

Each and every Friday we bring together some of the finest betting experts to give you some of the best tips, advice and guidance to help you out with your next 7 days betting.

CONTENTS

1. Mike Says
2. The Next Week In Betting
3. Herbie Goes Racing
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender
5. Skeeve’s Non League
6. A Little Birdie Says..

Ordinary People Making Extraordinary Betting Profits

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Issue 46 of the Secret Betting Club newsletter is out now and is full of information we believe could help you start to make or even improve upon your existing betting profits.

Here’s the highlights from this month’s magazine…

  • Full review of the Racing Post’s Pricewise Extra
  • First look at the horse racing ratings service which is impressing our testing team.
  • An in depth update on the main football tipsters we track. Who is top of the performance charts this season?
  • A first look at the football tipster that would have doubled your bank this season.
  • The horse racing tipster the professional gamblers wanted to keep secret.
  • Tips & tricks on how to avoid bookmaker restrictions.
  • Double chance betting – Our need to know guide.
  • The little known football statistic for this season.

Read about all of this and more by joining today risk free at http://www.secretbettingclub.com

Don’t forget too that all memberships also come with our 100% money back guarantee!

1. Mike Says..

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In this column, Secret Betting Club founder and professional gambler Mike Bishop discusses some of the weeks most topical betting issues.

One of our feature articles in the forthcoming 47th SBC issue (due out next week) focuses on the much debated area of ‘doubles’ betting. That is to combine 2 bets into 1 and to therefore increase your overall payout.

Now doubles (and trebles & other accumulators) are often touted as the type of bet that if done wrong effectively pay for your bookmaker to go on holiday each year (i.e. his profit!). That however is not always the case and in actual fact when done correctly, doubling up can rack up the profits far more effectively than singles.

In this months article we give the example of a fictional service that has a 50% strike-rate picking bets at 6/5. He picks out 2 bets per day so over 4 days and 8 bets in total he makes a 0.8 point profit. This works out as a 10% profit on turnover.

Now if he placed a double on his 2 bets each day, he would over the same period make a 1.68 pt profit. His total stake is again only 8 points but his profit on turnover has increased to 21%.
More than double his return from placing single bets only!

Of course this is quite a simplified way of looking at this but the basic premise is the same, that with the right analysis, betting on doubles can be a more effective way of increasing your overall profit on turnover.

Profitable Sources Still Needed!

Whether you bet on doubles, trebles or 10-team accumulators (good luck if that’s you!) you still need to have a profitable system or service in the first place.

Simply betting on doubles will not turn a losing service into a winning one, whichever way you look at it.

That’s where we come in here at the Secret Betting Club as we have an excellent source of winning approaches for your own betting. Many of these apply themselves well to other ways of making profit betting such as placing doubles.

You can find out more about doubles betting and our suggestions on how to squeeze the most value out of them in the next SBC issue, out next week.

Until next time…

Mike Bishop
Follow me on Twitter

2. The Next Week in Betting

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Mike analyses the forthcoming betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value.

Back in the mix this week with a full Premiership card to get stuck into as we enter squeaky bum territory, that time of the year that separates the men from the boys.

Talking of which, that’s exactly how Portsmouth played in midweek, as a team of schoolboys completely our of their depth against a hither to out-of-form Chelsea. This was the worst possible preparation for their big clash against old boss, Harry Redknapp and his Spurs team in a game its hard to see past the home team for.

Spurs are a best 1/4 to win this, which may seem short but considering Pompeys woeful record against teams in the top half of the league (1 win from 17) you can understand the nature of the price. Still at 1/4 and for only 25% interest its not worth getting involved in as far as I am concerned.

One bet I do like is over at Stamford Bridge where Villa take on Chelsea in a huge game for both sides. Chelsea are suffering from injuries especially at the back and with Villa setup to play best away from home, I fancy the +1.5 Asian Handicap on Martin O’Neill’s side at 1.85 with SBObet. Villa are 4th in the away league table, having conceded only 12 goals in 15 games. With this bet we still win even with a 1 goal defeat for Villa.

Money has come in for Everton this weekend and they are now a shade over evens (2.1 with Stan James) to take 3 points away at Molineux this weekend. Wolves have actually started scoring lately but I feel they may struggle to break down a now settled Everton backline (the game against West Ham was the first time Wolves have registered more than 2 in a league game this season). As such I think the under 2.5 goals at 1.82 with Pinnacle Sports offers a touch of value here.

Everton have also won all 8 games in which they have kept a clean sheet and another option is the 5/2 on them to ‘win to nil’ at Totesport.

Whatever you bet on this coming week, good luck!

Mike

The Ultimate Listing Of Every Betting Tipster & System

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Before you signup for any tipster or purchase any system you simply must visit the Money Maker Review website first.

Features comprehensive reviews and analysis of some of the most talked about tipping services (both good and bad). Read the 100% independent and unbiased reviews and make sure you don’t get caught out!

Latest reviews include: Smartersig, Coco Tips, Richard Dunwoody Tips,
Betfair Pirates, Racing Trends, Trading on Football, Betting Zone,
Best Under, Big Mike Betting & The FP System

Visit here for more info: http://www.moneymakerreview.com

3. Herbie Goes Racing

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Herbie Fogg is the Editor of Key Racing News, a unique horseracing information service, which is free to join. Racing news…with a difference.

Williamhill.com Magnolia Stakes (Listed), Kempton – 3.25pm Saturday, 27th March

Tom Tate looks to have finally found the ideal opportunity here for Suits Me, who is some way ahead of anything else declared for this in terms of ratings on sand. Fit from an all weather campaign, Suits Me has been running into the more highly rated Tranquil Tiger all winter (not to mention Gitano Hernando) and I imagine it must be a relief to all concerned to see no bigger fish lining up here.

Pitched in against genuinely smart types, Suits Me tends to just set things up for a finisher but this, especially away from Lingfield, looks doable. Lingfield is tough territory for a front runner, one of the hardest in the country (the 7th hardest when I last saw the stats). In Darryll Holland they have the ideal man for the carefully measured quick-slow-quick ride from the front at Kempton is a better venue.

The main option is Willie Haggas’ South Easter, although rather by default. With the others looking up against it and he looking fairly unexposed (totally unexposed on polytrack). South Easter actually managed to beat Gitano Hernando last year at Chester (thanks to a shocking hold up ride from ‘shotgun’ John Egan…one of those rides you never forget). After that he was beaten 10.5 lengths in a Group 2 where all those in front went on to do very little. He’s never done anything on the flat rated within 7lbs of Suits Me (on Raceform weight-adjusted ratings). It’s his first run in a long while, and we have to take it on faith that he’s fit and at the likely price you would want to know for sure that he was.

Of the others Heliodor hasn’t been running to the same level, and after that you’re struggling to find anything else with a credible claim on the book. I wasn’t that impressed with Heliodor’s prep run and I expect Suits Me to be hard to beat here.

Suits Me – 2pts win

Bon chance,

Herbie

Visit Key Racing News

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

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Winabobatoo are English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier betting experts. Using their own excellent football system to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

Winabobatoo Weekend Football Guide

I hope you were on last weekend’s winning double as we secured our 4th winning double in 7 since I’ve been highlighted two weekend games for you.

The Home Zone System, which is the source of the selections, has been performing extremely well with 26 winners coming from 33 matches since its inception to my Winabobatoo members last month, showing a profit of some 13 points to single win level stakes bets.

Unfortunately, there is only one match that satisfies the rules for selection this weekend, which means we can’t have our customary double.

Kidderminster are taken to beat Salisbury. They’re available at 1.80 with 7 different bookmakers at the time of writing. They were best priced at 1.85 earlier today but the weight of money from my members betting on the game has shortened it somewhat. This tends to happen with the Conference matches as the bookies start to run scared when they think we know something they don’t.

Kidderminster should win this game around 58% of the time, meaning their true odds are around 1.72. Backing them at 1.80 or bigger means the odds are in our favour and should secure us some long-term gains. Our betting objective should always be to place bets when the odds on offer more than cover the risk.

An example of a bad price this weekend is Man City v Wigan. Man City are 1.33 to beat Wigan. This means Man City would have to win 75% of the time for us to break even. Admittedly, City are strong favourites, but my numbers suggest they are only likely to win around 67% of the time, which means they are not worth the risk. Sometimes we have to sacrifice a few winners in order to find value. Finding winners alone isn’t enough. We have to find winners at prices that will secure long-term profits. This is the main difference in approach between long-term profitable bettors and long-term losing bettors.

Recommended single: Kidderminster to beat Salisbury at 1.80.

Good luck until next time.

Mike Lindley

Visit The Winabobatoo Website
Read our review of the Winabobatoo service

5. Skeeve’s Non League

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Skeeve is our resident non-league football betting expert who each week shares his best advice for this weekend’s domestic lower league action.

Hi everybody,

I promised I’d update the stats for these free Weekend Wager picks this time, so here we go:

FREE PICKS STAKED RETURNED W-V-L PROFIT ROI

23 92 120.68 15-1-7 +28.68 31.1%

Not bad, right? You’re welcome.

If we take a look at all of my picks since the start of the season in August, we’ll notice the ROI is much lower (of course), but still well above 10% (and the season isn’t over yet):

09/10 PICKS STAKED RETURNED W-V-L PROFIT ROI

150 541 605.91 78-9-63 +64.91 11.9%

Here’s one of the seven picks I’ve sent to my client a few hours ago.

cheers,
skeeve

27/3/2010

BLUE SQUARE PREMIER

(0) CRAWLEY – Stevenage 1  (2.37 @Bet365) 4 units

Crawley are the third best home team in the league, they haven’t lost a home game since December 1, they have five consecutive wins in February and March (1:0 vs Cambridge, 1:0 vs Altrincham, 2:1 vs Luton, 2:1 vs Wimbledon, 2:1 vs Ebbsfleet), mostly against the best teams in the league, they’ve managed to beat all the serious play-off candidates at home except for Oxford (2:1 vs Luton, 2:1 vs Rushden, 3:1 vs York, 2:1 vs Kettering, 2:1 vs Wimbledon) and a 0:2 defeat away at the very same Stevenage wasn’t as convincing as it might look – Stevenage scored the other goal in the 95th minute btw, a draw wouldn’t have been an unfair result there. They have a very good striker in Ademeno who scored winners against Altrincham, Wimbledon and Ebbsfleet recently, they had two weeks off (their last game was a 2:1 win vs Ebbsfleet the Saturday before last) and I think they have a much better chance against Stevenage than these odds suggest.

Stevenage were on an amazing run not that long ago and they still have six consecutive league wins, but they’ve barely managed to beat depleted Histon 1:0 ten days ago, then only managed to grind out a goalles draw with Kidderminster in the 2nd leg of an FA Trophy semi-final last Saturday and then barely managed to beat already relegated Grays 2:1 away from home on Tuesday. Grays even took the lead and Stevenage weren’t able to find a winner until 86th minute. Fatigue could be an important factor in this game – Stevenage played three games in eight days (and they were far from impressive in all of them) while Crawley played none. Like I said, Crawley are amazing at home and Stevenage have had plenty of off days so far, especially away from home (the most recent are 0:1 at Tamworth and 0:1 at Rushden, both in February), they have nine wins, four draws and four defeats in seventeen league games – Kettering, Luton and Oxford have all been better than Stevenage on the road. After six consecutive league wins, they’re bound to lose a league game soon and an away defeat at an amazing home team that still has an outside chance for a play-off spot wouldn’t be that big of a surprise if you ask me. Anything better than 2.00 for this draw-no-bet (we make +5.4 points profit in case of a home win or get these four points back in case of a draw) looks great to me.

(2.38 at Victor Chandler and also at Paddy Power btw, 2.32 at Pinnacle, 2.25 at Sportingbet btw…)

Visit Skeeve’s Website
Read our review of Skeeve’s service

6. A Little Birdie Says…

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Roger Green of the Birdie Golf tipster service is the latest contributor to the Weekend Wager. Previously supplying advice under the Tipping Legends banner, he has been providing golf tips since 1987 and has spent his entire life working in the golf industry.

Tiger makes his comeback!

In 12 days time Tiger Woods makes his long awaited appearance on a golf course in the Masters at Augusta. Apparently he has been practising very hard in recent weeks, is hitting the ball sweetly and fully intends to win!

There has never been a sportsman with such a strong mental approach and it will be a brave man who bets against him. I for one will probably bet in running and wait to see just how he is performing after the first round.

He will be under huge pressure and rightly so in my opinion. Putting his personal problems to one side, he has made millions of dollars out of sponsorship and advertising. This has all been achieved on the back of his “clean image” and one could argue that he took this money under false pretences.

The Masters is covered by BBC in the UK, and it will be interesting to see how much footage of Tiger they get via CBS.

What are the chances of a non-American winner this year?  Pretty good in my book, with only 3 Americans in the top 10 in the betting market

Current best prices of top 10 in betting are :-

Woods 9/2
Mickelson 8/1
Els 20/1
Harrington 20/1
Stricker 20/1
Casey 25/1
Westwood 25/1
Goosen 33/1
McIlroy 33/1
Ogilvy 33/1

How about leaving out Woods & Mickleson and betting the remaining 8 in the list at level stakes?
This would show a profit of between 13-26 points, assuming the winner is in this eight. I will be looking at the market in greater detail next week.

If you require any information on birdie golf, subscriptions etc please contact me on birdiegolf@live.co.uk

Roger Green

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