The Weekend Wager

Posted on February 19, 2010 by  

Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced courtesy of the team at the Secret Betting Club

Each and every Friday we bring together some of the finest betting experts to give you some of the best tips, advice and guidance to help you out with your next 7 days betting.

CONTENTS
1. Mike Says
2. The Next Week In Betting
3. Herbie Goes Racing
4. The Winabobatoo Weekender
5. Skeeve’s Non League
6. A Little Birdie Says..
7. This Weeks Risk Free Bet

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1. Mike Says..

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In this column, Secret Betting Club founder and professional gambler Mike Bishop discusses some of the weeks most topical betting issues.

A fascinating headline took my attention last Saturday as an Australian newspaper unveiled details on the mysterious person who is believe to be one of the, if not the biggest punters in the world. Read this article for the full details.

Its probably a name very few have heard before but Zeljko Ranogajec heads a company that it is estimated may turnover more than $1 billion per year on betting alone!

Very little is publicly known but details can be found on various websites such as this one, which have tried to piece together exactly who he is and exactly what he does.

It appears that Mr Ranogajec was something of a maths genius as a child and he has taken this and applied it to the betting field to great success. His theory seems to be simple, crunch the numbers, work out the value and place bets accordingly.

He has a myriad of people working for him to help do this and also the financial ability to place huge sums of money on such bets. I have actually spoken at length with someone who works for a very similar high turnover ‘betting’ employer and his field is primarily in Mathematics. He is part of a team from similar backgrounds who never see a racecourse or place a bet themselves.

Although it may seem a million miles away, this kind of theory is actually exactly what the rest of us do but to much lower stakes. Ranogajec has simply developed a way to scale this upwards by an exponential amount and to develop his own value betting approaches.

With our recommended tipsters and systems, we cant turnover $1 billion a year but if we can perhaps stake around £500 in bets a week, to a 15% return, that equates to £75 profit on average per week. Scale that upwards through sensible staking and investment and its relatively easy to see how you can do the same as Ranogajec, on a smaller level.

Until next week…

Mike Bishop
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2. The Next Week in Betting

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Mike analyses the forthcoming betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value.

Attention this weekend will be on the race to finish 4th, with the 2 leading contenders, Liverpool and Man City facing up at the City of Manchester stadium. While the bookies have City favourites at a best 2.54 with Pinnacle Sports, I wonder if the under 2.5 goals line offers more value here. Both Mancini and Benitez have worked hard to eradicate the high number of goals both teams were conceding early in the season. City have only let in 6 goals in the league during the 8 games since Mancini took over and Liverpool a measly 2 over the same period. Thus the 1.85 on under 2.5 goals with 12Bet looks quite a kind price to me!

In another major game at the top of the table, Everton host Man Utd at Goodison, where the on-fire Wayne Rooney returns to his former team. The hosts will be without Tim Cahill, which is a major blow and their focus may well be on their midweek Europa game with Sporting Lisbon. You can pick up Utd at 1.85 with Pinnacle Sports although the 11/8 (2.38) with Boylesports on Rooney to score at anytime could be preferable.

As an interesting aside you can also pick up 12/1 on Wayne Rooney to captain England at the World Cup with Boylesports. Considering Rio Ferdinand’s issues with his back injury and Steven Gerrards loss of form, this may not be the worst bet ever!

The other team I fancy this weekend is Blackburn at home against Bolton, where Big Sam’s team are 2.01 with SBObet to take all 3 points. They have won their last 3 home games against teams around them and this offers a smidgeon of value to me.

By the time you are reading this the England – Pakistan 20/20 game will have been well underway, and these games in Dubai are little more than a warm up for the less than eagerly anticipated tour of Bangladesh.

This gets underway a week on Sunday and after checking out some of the markets, I am struggling to see any value in the top English series bowler. Graeme Swann is a worthy contender on spinning pitches but the 11/8 seems mighty short enough to me.

I do fancy Kevin Pieterson at 11/4 with Paddy Power to be the top English batsman however as normally his price at the start of a series is much shorter than this. The guy is a class act despite his dip in form and for me this offers a shade of value.

Whatever you bet on this coming week, good luck!

Mike

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3. Herbie Goes Racing

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Herbie Fogg is the Editor of Key Racing News, a unique horseracing information service, which is free to join. Racing news…with a difference.

The Betfair Ascot Chase (G1), Ascot – 3.15pm Saturday, 20th February

This race tends to put value into perspective; the highest priced winner returned in the last 4 years was Our Vic on heavy ground at 2/1 – although it was known as the Totesport Chase when last run at Lingfield. For the past 3 years it’s been at Ascot, where the winner went off: Voy Por Ustedes 6/5 fav (2009), Kauto Star 4/11 fav (2008) & Monet’s Garden 11/10 fav (2007). Monet’s Garden was also 2nd in 2008. Generally speaking the best horse wins, but that said in all of those it looked more cut and dried.

The ground is currently soft, good to soft in places with a few wintery showers. I’m going to assume it’s riding soft and base my thoughts along those lines. Put it this way, it’s never usually firmer than they estimate.

In the soft conditions we can’t have Albertas Run. The Sawyer has been in great form but appears outclassed.

Herecomesthetruth likes to have it his own way in front, but faces problems with Monet’s Garden and The Sawyer who both like to lead. He has to be respected for beating Forpadydeplasterer early season at Down Royal, but that was in a field of 4 and he led the whole way. At Huntingdon latest he was eventually headed and unseated. On the plus side his general record could hardly be better, and a galloping RH track is ideal. He can stay 24fl, so this trip in testing ground should present no problem. On ratings he’s 4lbs ahead of Oh Crick, but at G2 and above he never won in a field of more than 5. He wants ease and soft ground is fine.

Planet Of Sound is likely to be all the rage and 20fl has looked his trip this year. He ran well here behind Albertas Run in November, and would have been a lot closer but for a bad mistake at the 9th. He keeps improving and the gallop reports are good. He’s particularly effective on decent ground and one concern is that he may find it a little softer and more holding than he would prefer. Philip Hobbs would also have the Ryanair in mind and this at the end of the day, is a tuning exercise for the bigger target. I’m not convinced he has enough pure class to roll over some types who will be treating this as their major target.

If it comes up soft and he’s allowed to bowl along Herecomesthetruth could take a lot of beating, but he seems certain to be taken on – he got no peace at Aintree last April and never recovered from clouting the 6th. We’re looking for value here and he looks short enough for a difficult ride in this company.

Oh Crick likes it round here and ran on dourly behind Twist Magic and Petit Robin in the Victor Chandler. At 7YO he’s a potential improver and an interesting prospect stepped up 4.5fl (with 11lbs to find) – although a contradiction, as he’s in the Champion Chase and not the Ryanair at the Festival – but he’s unlikely to win either, so perhaps it’s just the day the owner can make it to Cheltenham, it can mean very little. Otherwise, why enter for this? It’s hardly a prep race for the Champion Chase. King is confident he’ll get the trip.

So I do think we can expect Oh Crick to be thoroughly primed for this. He was a long way behind Planet Of Sound at Exeter, but the yard wasn’t firing then – he looked vastly better latest and is untroubled by testing ground. He’s also looking more versatile right handed then previously thought. It means taking a flyer on his stamina, but he’s usually underrated, and that’s reflected in the price.

I’m also keen on Monet’s Garden, who admittedly appears best these days in a good jumping rhythm on a flat track – he ran an absolute cracker at Aintree in October, and was well below par at Ascot latest. But that undoubtedly came too soon and he’s been freshened up nicely for this, remains a class act on his day (would take the beating on that Aintree form) and comes here with a solid course record. He will be primed to the gunnels for a tilt at one last great afternoon.

Monet’s Garden, 7/1 (Stan James, William Hill ante post) – 0.5pt win
Oh Crick, 9/1 (William Hill, ante post) – 0.5pt win

Bon chance,

Herbie

Visit Key Racing News

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

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Winabobatoo are English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier betting experts. Using their own excellent football system to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

Winabobatoo Weekend Football Guide

Morecambe and Leicester both won last weekend to give us a successful double. We’ve recently been discussing how multiple bets can boost relatively small profit margins from betting in single bets, to slightly higher margins if betting in doubles.

This week the Winabobatoo ratings are pointing us towards Newcastle and Blackpool.

Newcastle are 1.57 to beat Preston. I reckon their true odds are around 1.47, so the bookies are a touch too high with their price.

Blackpool are 2.30 to beat Reading and their true odds should be nearer to even money.
Unfortunately we can’t combine both of those best prices together as they’re with different bookmakers, but 2.30 and 1.50 is available, and 2.20 and 1.57 is available. Both return 3.45.
The chance of us landing the double is around 35%. This equates to odds of 2.88, and the bookies are offering odds of 3.45, which means we are betting with the odds in our favour.
The double price of 3.45 is available with Corals, Ladbrokes, and Blue Square at the time of writing. Please check out the latest prices on Oddschecker as there may be better available by the time you read this.

Good luck until next time.

Mike Lindley

Visit The Winabobatoo Website
Read our review of the Winabobatoo service

5. Skeeve’s Non League

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Skeeve is our resident non-league football betting expert who each week shares his best advice for this weekend’s domestic lower league action.

Hi everybody,

Another succesful pick last weekend (Luton won away at Eastbourne, +3.6 points profit there)

I promised I’d update the stats for these free Weekend Wager picks, so here we go:

FREE PICKS STAKED RETURNED W-V-L PROFIT RoI

18 72 99.08 13-0-5 +27.08 37.6%

Just to remind you, 23 free picks from last season produced +42 points profit (41% RoI), so even though I had to close the membership and the waiting list (you’ll be the first to know if or when I decide to reopen the waiting list, don’t worry), at least I’m trying to help those who can’t afford to pay for a proven service. That doesn’t mean you should risk your rent money (that’s never a good idea, but you’re a good boy/girl and you already know that, don’t you?) – you need a bank for these free picks just as much as you need a bank for any paid service. I was actually sharing all of my picks for almost a year, from December 2006 to October 2007 and I’m glad I can continue to give something back to the betting community.

Let’s take a look at the official stats for all the picks I’ve sent to my clients since the start of the 09/10 football season in August:

09/10 PICKS STAKED RETURNED W-V-L PROFIT RoI

125 446 492.27 65-8-52 +46.27 10.3%

Not bad considering the fact we’ve had plenty of postponements in December and January (not to mention an uber-succesful 2009, which was almost too good to be true – you have to expect a losing run or two after a year like that, we’re all just humans) and most teams had to deal with a rather lengthy unplanned break. Break means no money from home games and no money sometimes means a budget cut. When the weather finally started to allow the non-league games to actually happen, it was almost like a second start of the season or, if you want, virtually official start of the 2nd half of the season – and I believe any ‘start’ is the toughest time of the year for a betting service. Anyway, things are slowly getting back to normal now. Normal means long-term edge over these unmotivated (and probably underpaid) non-league odds compilers.

Here’s one of the six picks I’ve sent to my client a few hours ago.

cheers,

skeeve

20/2/2010

BLUE SQUARE PREMIER

Eastbourne – (0) ALTRINCHAM 2  (1.92 @188bet) 4 units

Eastbourne are one of the worst home teams in the Blue Square Premier with only four wins in fifteen games. Those wins were btw 1:0 vs Wimbledon in the first week of the season back in August, 2:1 vs Barrow on August 22, 3:1 vs Hayes on September 22, then not a single home win for four and a half months (!) and, finally, 2:1 vs Wrexham two weeks ago (Wrexham are btw one of the worst away teams with only three wins in thirteen games). All the games from September 22 to February 6 were either defeats or draws (six defeats, three draws to be exact) and let’s not forget these teams played at Altrincham on Tuesday – Eastbourne conceded three and, of course, for the third consecutive time failed to score a goal. Altrincham are one of the best away teams – that’s seven wins, three draws and four defeats, only eleven goals conceded in fourteen games, no other team conceded less. They did lose their last two away games, but those were much better teams (1:3 at Wimbledon, 0:1 at Crawley) and btw they had a very nice unbeaten run away from home before these two defeats (3:1 at Chester, 2:0 at Tamworth, 0:0 at Histon, 0:0 at Wrexham, 2:1 at Ebbsfleet). The truth is Altrincham are in fact very predictable on the road – they lose or share points with promotion candidates, but they always win away at relegation candidates (Barrow, Hayes, Grays, Chester, Tamworth, Ebbsfleet) and Eastbourne definitely have one of the weakest teams in the league, at least at the moment (Altrincham are without the new guy Doran due to his suspension and striker Johnson is out for the season – he hasn’t scored since August anyway so it’s not that big of a deal, but Eastbourne are missing a lot more players – defenders Jenkins and Opinel are both suspended, striker Atkin, midfielder Brown and no1 keeper Knowles are all injured). Anything better than 1.70 for this draw-no-bet looks great to me.

(1.90 at Pinnacle and SBO and also at 12bet btw, 1.88 at Ladbrokes, 1.87 at Canbet btw, 1.86 at Victor Chandler, 1.85 at Bet365 and also at The Greek btw…)

Visit Skeeve’s Website
Read our review of Skeeve’s service

6. A Little Birdie Says…

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Roger Green of the Birdie Golf tipster service is the latest contributor to the Weekend Wager. Previously supplying advice under the Tipping Legends banner, he has been providing golf tips since 1987 and has spent his entire life working in the golf industry.

I make no excuses for concentrating solely on Tiger Woods this week and his impact on the game of golf. Without doubt, the tour is a poorer place without him with smaller galleries, less international exposure, less sponsors etc…

I believe it is going to prove a massive test of his mental strength to come back as you cannot begin to imagine the heckling he is going to get and the questioning at press conferences will be something else.

The likely date of Woods’ return to golf is one of the hottest topics in sport, with the first major of the year, the US Masters, less than two months away.

The latest speculation is that he will opt to play at the unofficial – and private – Tavistock Cup event on his home course, Isleworth in Florida from 22-23 March. (This is my bet). The Masters, which Woods has won four times, takes place at Augusta National from 8-11 April.

Woods has won 14 major titles and needs five more to surpass the record of 18 held by compatriot Jack Nicklaus. I have been fortunate enough to have met Jack Nicklaus several times through business (not playing!) and this is what the great man has to say – “If Tiger is going to pass my record I think this is a big year – if he doesn’t play obviously the chore will be a little tougher”, said Nicklaus.

I personally think Tiger will come back stronger than ever, and who would bet against him winning 3 majors this year!

Thanks for all your emails, please contact me at birdiegolf@live.co.uk if you require any info.


That’s all for today! Have a great weekend…
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