Betfair Stat Attack – March

Posted on March 31, 2010 by  

Welcome to Stat Attack with our friends over at BETFAIR

Here we give a round up of the pick of the prices traded on the exchange during the past month’s football.

Certainly makes for some interesting reading…….

31st March

Arsenal v Barcelona (2-2)
• Barcelona matched at 1.04 to win (more than £200,000 traded) when holding a 2-0 lead
• Draw backed at 28
• Final score of 2-2 traded at a high of 48
• Over 3.5 goals backed at 12.5
• Latest qualification odds: 1.21 Barca; 5.3 Arsenal

Inter v CSKA (1-0)
• Inter backed at 2.18 to win the game
• Italian side trade at 1.21 to qualify

24th March

Spurs v Fulham (3-1)
• Tottenham traded at a high of 5 to win after going behind to a first half Bobby Zamora strike
• The Cottagers traded as low as 1.91
• Fulham/Tottenham HT/FT was backed at 32
• Spurs are 2.94 to win the Cup

Aston Villa v Sunderland (1-1)
• Villa traded at a low of 1.47 to win
• Draw backed at 7.8

Blackburn v Birmingham (2-1)
• Rovers traded at 3.55 to win the game

Manchester City v Everton (0-2)
• Everton backed at 4.8 to beat City
• Home side traded at a low of 1.72
• Final score of 2-0 backed at 32

Portsmouth v Chelsea (0-5)
• Chelsea traded at a high of 1.45 to win
• Stamford Bridge outfit can be backed at 3.65 to win the Premier League
• Final score of 5-0 backed at 32

23rd March

Two Ws came head to head tonight as Wolves travelled to West Ham and it is the former who will have a priceless W for win in the form guide after a remarkable 1-3 win that was matched at odds of [120.0] on Betfair.

West Ham were well-fancied to win this match courtesy of solid home form of late and went off at around the [1.7] mark. Wolves were matched as high as [5.9] to take all three points and never looked back after scoring the opener. In fact, West Ham’s only goal of the match was a last-minute consolation effort which brought great disappointment to those who had backed the 0-3 scoreline at the huge price of [210.0] although it did trade as low as [1.1] meaning in-play traders would have had plenty of chances to “green up”.

The win sees Wolves drift to odds of [8.0] for relegation this year, whilst dragging West Ham right back into it. After looking out of the woods a few weeks ago, the Hammers are now the fourth favourites for the drop at [4.4] with only Portsmouth, Hull and Burnley shorter.

18th March

Fulham v Juve 4-1 (5-4 on aggregate)
• Juventus matched at 1.01 to qualify with £51,544 traded after winning the first leg 3-1
• Fulham backed at 75 in the same market but win the second leg 4-1 to reach the quarter-finals
• The Cottagers have been backed at 560 to win the tournament (£4 traded)

17th March

The history books say no-one has successfully defended their Champions League title but on the evidence of tonight’s performance, only the bravest of layers on Betfair are offering odds of 3.0 that Barcelona won’t be doing just that. Pep Guardiola’s side outclassed Stuttgart in all departments during tonight’s second leg and in hindsight the in-running 1.37 about a home win was a case of “buying money” as Barcelona cruised to a 4-0 win.

The Catalans were only ever matched at a high of 1.34 on the “to qualify” market, when they were trailing the German side 1-0 in the first leg, whilst the “any unquoted” runner in the correct score market drifted to 5.4 before Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s last-minute goal.

No Barcelona rout would be complete without a significant contribution from the genial Lionel Messi and this match was no exception. The Argentinean scored the first and third goals of the match and has gone second-favourite to finish as the competition’s top scorer this year at odds of 3.4. Wayne Rooney’s odds are slightly bigger at 3.6 whilst Cristiano Ronaldo, who won’t be adding to his goal tally this year after Real were knocked out of the competition, is still the favourite at 2.26.

Over in Bordeaux, the French champions also booked their place in the quarter-finals but it was from straightforward. They did take the lead but Olympiacos hit back to level the score at 1-1 and at that stage another goal by the Greeks would have knocked Laurent Blanc’s side out. But it wasn’t to be and a late strike from long-term Arsenal target Marouane Chamakh ensured Bordeaux (matched at a high of 5.6) won the match in the end by 2-1. Bordeaux now trade at odds of 25.0 to win the Champions League, after being backed at odds of 390 earlier on in the competition.

16th March

Another big European night ended in familiar disappointment for Chelsea fans after Inter Milan were matched at odds of 22.0 on Betfair to beat Carlo Ancelotti’s side 1-0 and progress to the quarter-finals of the Champions League. After last year’s controversial exit to Barcelona in the semi-finals and their penalty shoot-out defeat in the final the year before, Chelsea look destined to not winning Europe’s blue-riband competition.

Curiously, for a third time running Chelsea’s failure will coincide with a suspension for Didier Drogba. He was sent off in the final two years ago, was suspended after his post-match antics in the defeat to Barcelona last year and was dismissed once more tonight, this time for an off-the-ball stamp on Inter midfielder Thiago Motta. A sending off in the match was matched at odds of 4.9

Chelsea went into this match as 1.62 favourites to win in 90 minutes whilst the draw traded at odds of 1.77 before Samuel Eto’s 78th minute winner; the Cameroon star was matched as high as 14.0 to open the scoring with Inter backed at 7.2 just before his goal.

Chelsea’s shock exit has predictably shaken up the winner market on Betfair. Chelsea were strongly fancied to go far this year and traded at just 4.5 to win the competition for the first time in their history. Inter Milan on the other hand, who were backed as high as 50.0 to lift the trophy whilst struggling to get out of the group stages are now the third-favourites at 5.7 with only Barcelona (3.4) and Man Utd (4.8) shorter.

Surprising as Chelsea’s exit was, a far bigger upset was taking place in Sevilla. Having secured a 1-1 away draw at CSKA Moscow, it looked a pretty straightforward task for the La Liga side but a 2-1 win for the Russian outfit saw them progress. The away win was matched at 8.2 with the correct 1-2 scoreline backed at 38. The Russians were also matched at a high of 5.8 to qualify. Betfair traders who backed them as high as 1000.0 to win this competition will have plenty of chances to secure a profit with their price now at the 40.0 mark and that may prove to be the best option. Only Olympiacos (260) and Stuttgart (150) who have huge tasks head of them in their second legs tomorrow night are bigger prices to go on and win the competition, which suggests the Betfair market thinks this as far as they’re going this year.

14th March

It was as business as usual for Manchester United at Old Trafford with a regulation 3-0 win that put them top of the table. There were few surprises on the score-sheet either with that man Wayne Rooney adding two more goals to his tally before Dimitar Berbatov added a late third. United drifted to 1.42 on Betfair when going into the break level at half-time and the flurry of second-half goals caught some of the correct score layers off-guard with backers of the final scoreline securing odds as high as 70.0. The United clean sheet was matched at a high of 1.88. The defending champions are now the favourites for the Premier League at 2.6 with Chelsea 2.72 and Arsenal 4.1

Fulham’s Thursday night Europa League opponents Juventus were on the wrong side of one of the greatest comebacks Betfair’s football markets have ever seen. At 3-0 up at home to the modest Siena, Juventus were matched at Betfair’s minimum price of 1.01 with the draw backed at odds of 160 before three goals from the visitors left Juve fans, and indeed their backers, totally stunned. 3-3 draws are few and far between but this weekend Juve’s wasn’t the only one in Serie A. Over in Livorno, Roma’s visit ended with the same scoreline, which was matched at odds of 220.

There may have just been just the two goals in it, but Manchester City’s visit to Sunderland provided an equally thrilling match as Adam Johnson’s last-gasp equaliser for Roberto Mancini’s side secured a share of the spoils. Sunderland scored early on and spent most of the match trying to protect their lead. They looked like they might do just that and traded as low as 1.13 before Johnson’s curled effort from the edge of the box secured the draw backers (at odds as high as 9.0) a big payday.

13th March

Bolton took a huge step towards avoiding the drop by thrashing Liverpool’s recent conquerors Wigan this afternoon. The Trotters were matched at 2.28 to take all three points and at 3.85 to be leading at half-time and winning at full-time. At odds of 15 to go down now, Betfairians expect Owen Coyle’s side to still be playing in the Premier League next season.

Over at Stamford Bridge it wasn’t all plain sailing for Chelsea but they got there in the end. Having conceded an equaliser when Scott Parker scored from long range effort just before half-time Carlo Ancelotti’s men were under some pressure and drifted to odds of 1.55 to win the match. But two second-half goals from Didier Drogba and one from Florent Malouda were enough to allow Chelsea to go favourites for the Premier League once again at 2.48, with Man Utd yet to play Fulham this weekend.

Spurs may be well out of the title race but their 3-1 win over Blackburn has allowed them to remain in real contention for a Top Four finish. At 3.6 they’re the same price as Liverpool but behind Man City who are the 2.5 favourites to clinch the last remaining Champions League spot with Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal virtual shoo-ins. The 3-1 scoreline against Blackburn was matched at 42.0.

Wolves came out on top in the six-pointer of a match over at Turf Moor, which has seen them eased out to 2.9 for the drop. The defeat means Burnley are now just 1.28 for the drop themselves, a far cry from the dizzy heights they reached at the start of the season when they were beating the likes of Man Utd and Everton, during which they were matched as big as 3.95 to go down. The Wolves win was matched at a high of 3.8

The comeback kings of the day were Birmingham City who came back from 2-0 down at home to Everton to salvage a draw. The Toffees traded at just 1.09 to take all three points with the draw matched at 14.0 before Birmingham found their feet and scored twice to take a share of the spoils.

9th March

Arsenal sent a chilling message to the remaining Champions League contenders that they mean business after dumping FC Porto out of the competition by winning the second leg 5-0. A hat-trick from Nicklas Bendtner did most of the damage in a game where they were matched at a high of 1.7 on Betfair to win. The Gunners had been matched at a high of 2.2 to qualify when trailing Porto 1-0 in the first leg.

It was a good night for those who had predicted plenty of goals with odds of 10 being matched on both the “any unquoted” scorelines and on five or more goals being scored in the match. Although they are already in the quarter-finals, Arsenal are still the biggest priced of the three English teams to win the Champions League at odds of 10. Despite still having tricky second legs against AC Milan and Inter Milan to negotiate, Manchester United and Chelsea are both trading at 7.0.

If it was goals you wanted, another five were scored in Florence this evening as Fiorentina beat Bayern Munich 3-2, yet still went out on the away goals rule. The Italians were matched at 3.5 to win the match and that was ultimately a winning bet, as was the 3.7 Bayern were matched at to qualify. The big winning punters were those who predicted the 3-2 scoreline though, that was matched at the most attractive odds of 95. Having been matched at a high of 150 to win this competition whilst seriously struggling in the group stages, Louis Van Gaal’s team are now chalked up at 14.5 on Betfair to go all the way.

3rd March

England v Egypt (3-1)

Mohamed Zidan matched at 24 to be first scorer
England backed at a high of 4
Egypt matched at a low of 2.32
Final score of 3-1 backed at 22
England 7 to win the World Cup

France v Spain (0-2)

Spain backed at 2.88
Spain 5.3 favourites to win the World Cup
France 18.5 to win the World Cup

Germany v Argentina (0-1)

Argentina backed at 4 in-running
Argentina 12 to win the World Cup
Germany 15 to win the World Cup

Scotland v Czech Republic

Scotland backed at 5 to win as they opened the Craig Levein era with a victory

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