Draw Inflation

March 1, 2012 by Darren Hall
Filed under News

Just had this in from Adster over at prematchtrading.com concerning currently very under utilised aspect of Football Trading, Draw Inflation.

Breaking News…..

We’ve had many emails requesting more info about the brilliant Draw Inflation and it’s availability. Currently this is available on the Automated Pages and other games have to set up manually on the Manual Page to find out the DI for those games. So we will be launching a new Sevice soon which will automatically scan the BF coupon for that day and find games where the DI is high/low allowing users to jump on and make ££££.

This is pretty exciting! There were 4 Premier games alone over the last weekend where the DI was high and profits were assured before a ball was kicked. The DI Service will also be ideal for those with less time as Match Odds get matched a lot quicker than other markets.

If this is of interest please let us know as we expect this to be very popular indeed.

So just what is Draw Inflation?

Over to you again Adster……

We are finding there are more and more games where we can take advantage of via Shirley (our price misalignment software).

These include :

• We’re trading the Match Odds so we get matched almost immediately.
• Liquidity is better in Match Odds than any other market.
• Even lesser games we wouldn’t normally touch due to lack of £££ we can get involved in and nick a few ££££ allowing more flexibility and trading opportunities aside the big live games.
• Those with less time can jump on these, make their green and move on very quickly.
• Shirley tells us exactly what the draw Inflation is, making this an even more powerful tool.

The majority of football models are based on the poisson distribution and so is Shirley – a heavily modified poisson model which allows for teams correlation and leagues specific corrections.
Historically poisson models have been predicting draw outcomes to occur less often and the error has been around 10%, therefrom the draw inflation – inflating/increasing the probability of draws and of course draw scores 0-0/1-1 etc.

What is too high/low then?

That’s relative, anything between 5-15% is alright but if you see an inflation around or below 0% that would be low, respectively an inflation above 20% would be high, in some Italian B games however draw inflation’s have been as high as 200%, those games in which the draw trades around 1.50 at KO 🙂

What to do when we spot a low inflation?

The inflation depends on match odds and total goals so there are a number of scenarios:

• match odds remain the same, u2.5 drifts
• draw steams, dog drifts, u2.5 stays the same
• draw steams, faves drift, u2.5 steams
• draw remains the same, dog drifts, u2.5 drifts

and quite a few more of these…

A trade that would win in most cases – back the draw and lay the dog, if you could get matched laying/backing at back/lay prices that would be best.

For high inflations – the opposite – lay draw and back dog.

Click here to check out a few testimonials over on the Trading Football site (these boys know a thing or two about the subject!)

Here’s an example from Wednesday night:

Tonight the Braga game was again an example of draw inflation at work. Was clear cut even for relative draw inflation novice like myself. Braga vs Guimares at about 45mins before kickoff DI was hovering between 17.5% and 20%.
Guirames was @7.6- 7.8 on Betfair, and Pinnacle only @7.1 as expected Guirares fell in match odds.

DI dropped slightly into the 16.% range.

then DI rose again to 20% range at about maybe 20mins before kickoff Pinnacle was showing guirames @6.12….betfair price @7-7.2…..again fell down to @6.6 -6.8

So two clear cut entry opportunties. Liquidity was very high in the match odds last i saw touching 750k.

To find out more about how you can get involved just click below…….