If, When, Why, What…..

One from our video vault but very prevalent with so many existing user offers about now (see here)

Recently we have seen a tremendous increase in the number of conditional or “IF” offers from a range of bookmakers but can you actually make a profit from them?

Only one way to find out, with the help of a video and a very handy spreadsheet.

Come and have a look……

Download the spreadsheet, as featured in the video, here

And here’s another bit of “Old Gold” from a couple of years back but still applies today….

Let’s have a look in black and white too….

Can you make a risk free profit from these types of IF xxxx offers?

The easiest way to understand it, is to think of it just the same way as a normal matched bet, but with a very restricted market for the qualifying bet, and only one market for the free bet!

The Offer

If match A ends 0-0 Bookmaker A will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match upto a certain maximum

In the case of the 0-0 refund offers, your ‘free bet’ will ‘win’ at the bookies, if the game ends 0-0. The amount it will win is equivalent to the stake you place for your qualifying bet.

The most important thing to remember is that, just like with normal matched betting, you should treat the two bets independently of each other – each part makes its own profit or loss, and don’t try and think of too many combinations of outcome.

An important point to remember here is that both events must be mutually exclusive – it must not be the case that both can happen! Otherwise, you could end up winning at the bookie, for the qualifying bet, but having to pay out on the lay on the ‘insurance’/free bet part. As you won’t be receiving anything back from the bookie for this part (as your original bet won) you would end up down in cash. 0-0 insurance is great, as long as you back any other score (a game can’t end with two scores!).

Take a onetime England offer from Paddypower, who said they would refund all losing first goalscorer bets if Wayne Rooney scored anytime in 90 mins, in a particular England match.

This could be guaranteed profitable only if the qualifying event i.e. a correct score bet – did not have any chance for Rooney to score, i.e. you could bet on 1-0 to the opposition, but not 2-1 (as Rooney could have scored England’s 1 goal).

The key is you need to find a very good qualifying bet where the back odds at the bookmaker on the selection I want are close to the lay odds at the betting exchange.

To get a rough calculation of the profit on the 0-0 refund, you need to look at the odds for 0-0 on your exchange (i.e., Betfair). Divide the maximum refund by the lay odds for 0-0 and take off your commission, typically 5% (for example, by multiplying through the answer by 0.95) to get a good approximation.

Here’s an example:

Place a bet and get it refunded if the game ends 0-0. Maximum £100 stake will be refunded.

Say the lay odds available on Betfair are 8.

Then the profit from the 0-0 insurance will be roughly £100/8 * 0.95 = £11.88

So you want a qualifier that loses less than £11.88 to make this worthwhile. You must also note that there may be wagering requirements on the bet refund or the refund may be in the form of a free bet (which may or may not be stake returned). If this is the case, you should approximate how much this will cost you and adjust accordingly!

Say your refund is given as an Stake Not Returned free bet, then you can reasonably expect to make 80% back, the true value of your refunded stake is £24 and the calculation become 24/8 * .95 = £9.50 profit

If you are satisfied that it’s worth doing then place your qualifying bet as normal – you now need to work out how much to lay on the 0-0.

To do this, enter the value refund amount, (remember this will be 100% of the amount for cashback or stake returned offers and 80% of stake not returned ones) as the Back Stake and put in ‘1′ as the Back Odds in the Bet72 Matched Betting spreadsheet. The lay odds for 0-0 and finally enter your exchange commission rate.

This will show the correct lay stake.

All the usual caveats about odds possibly changing mid way through etc do apply, so please bear this in mind and only do this if you are confident you can get your bets on at the prices you are calculating for. If you find an arb, there is no hurry to bet on the 0-0, but it’s some extra profit so why not.
 
OK here’s an example (fictional of course!):

If Match A ends 0-0 Bookmaker A will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match upto £100

Just look to back anything that is mutually exclusive from a 0-0 result i.e. TeamA to win, TeamB to win, any scoreline apart from 0-0, any goalscorer or any HT/FT result other than draw/draw. Whatever gives us the best match up in back/lay odds combination

Once you’ve picked your qualifying bet, match it out for as little loss as possible – back/lay it so that you win/lose the same amount no matter what the result using the regular matched betting calculations.

After that, you then go on to lay the stake refund condition/outcome i.e. 0-0, to lock in a profit.

Example:

Back TEAM A 1-0 @ The Bookmaker at odds of 7 with £100

Lay TEAM A 1-0 @ The Exchange at odds of 7.2 with £97.90 (a £606.99 liability)

This gives a £6.99 loss whatever the outcome.

Then 0-0 @ The Exchange at odds of 10 with £10.05 (a £90.45 liability)

So possible outcomes are on the result are:

Score not 0-0 = +£9.55 (winning 0-0 lay bet less commission @ 5%) – -£6.99 (qualifying bet) = £2.56 profit.

Score is 0-0 = -£90.45 (losing 0-0 lay bet) -£6.99 (qualifying bet) + £100 (stake refund from bookie) = £2.56 profit.

So if you are happy with the potential gain for the time you will spend doing it and amount of cash required and how long it could be tied up for, then you are good to go!

Here’s another IF example from Cheltenham 2011 but still very relevant

The Offer

If Cue Card wins the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Paddy Power will refund single and the win section of each-way bets placed on others runners in the race up to £200/€200.

So we just need to BACK / LAY any other horse in the race and then LAY Cue Card to lock a profit.

Obviously we are still looking at Antepost prices here but as an example (at the time of typing) you could:

BACK Spirit Son at PP with £200 at 6.5
LAY Spirit Son at Betfair with £167.74 at 7.8 (£1140.65 liability)

and LAY Cue Card at Betfair with £58 at 3.5 (£145 liability)

Possible oucomes:

Spirit Son Wins

= +£1100 at PP – £1140.65 at BF + £55.10 (lay on CueCard at BF less 5%) = £14.45 profit

Spirit Son Loses and Cue Card Loses Too

= -£200 at PP + £159.35 at BF (lay on Spirit Son less 5%) + £55.10 (lay on CueCard at BF less 5%) = £14.45 profit

Spirit Son Loses and Cue Card Wins

= 0 at PP (lose £200, get £200 refund) + £159.35 at BF (lay on Spirit Son less 5%) – £145.00 (lay on CueCard at BF) = £14.35 profit

This is an example of splitting the profit equally over all outcomes but of couse you could weight the bets to favour one or the other a little more depending on whether you think Cue Card will win or not. So at worse it would be a risk free punt with a decent upside!

As always if you have been affected by any issues raised in this article then please don’t hesitate to contact us at info@bet72.com

Setantabet: Weekend Premiership Refunds

Football

Weekend Premiership Refunds

Sunderland v Chelsea

If There Is A Goal Scored In The Last 5 Minutes, We Will Refund All Losing Goalscorer Bets From This Game

Offer open to all account holders based in Ireland and the UK. One Refund per customer. One Refund per household.Refunds will be deposited into account within 48 hours.Maximum refund per customer, per household €30/£30.

Manchester City v Manchester United

If Robin Van Persie Or Sergio Aguero Score First, We Will Refund All Losing First/Last Goalscorer And Correct Score Bets From This Match

Offer open to all account holders based in Ireland and the UK. One Refund per customer. One Refund per household.Refunds will be deposited into account within 48 hours.Maximum refund per customer, per household €30/£30.

West Ham v Liverpool

If Steven Gerrard Scores Anytime, We Will Refund All Losing First/Last Goalscorer And Correct Score Bets From This Match

Offer open to all account holders based in Ireland and the UK. One Refund per customer. One Refund per household.Refunds will be deposited into account within 48 hours.Maximum refund per customer, per household €30/£30.

Click Here For More Details – New Users Get a Free £10 Bet Too

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

Canbet: Weekend Money Back Special

Football

English Premier League Money-Back Special

West Ham v Chelsea – Saturday 1st December

Place a 1×2 or Asian H’cap bet on the West Ham v Chelsea match this Saturday.

If there are no goals in the second half and your selection loses the match in normal time, Canbet will refund your bet up to £50/€50/$50 (this offer applies to your very first 1×2 or Asian Handicap bet placed on this match only)*

Promotional code: WVC0112

Spanish Primera Division Money-Back Special

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid – Saturday 1st December

Place a 1×2 or Asian H’cap bet on the Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid match this Saturday.

If any player scores a double (two consecutive goals) in the second half and your selection loses the match in normal time, Canbet will refund your losing bet up to £50/€50/$50 (this offer applies to your very first 1×2 or Asian Handicap bet placed on this match only, the goals must be consecutive (one after the other)*

Promotional code: RVA0112

Click Here For More Details – New Users Get a Free £60 Bet Too

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

Setantabet: Weekend Premiership Refunds

Football

Premiership Refund Specials

West Ham v Chelsea

If Andy Carroll Or Fernando Torres Score First, We Will Refund All Losing First/Last Goalscorer And Correct Score Bets From This Match

Offer open to all account holders based in Ireland and the UK. One Refund per customer. One Refund per household.
Refunds will be deposited into account within 48 hours. Maximum refund per customer, per household €30/£30.

Reading v Man United

If Javier Hernandez Scores Last We Will Refund All Losing First/Last Goalscorer And Correct Score Bets From This Match

Offer open to all account holders based in Ireland and the UK. One Refund per customer. One Refund per household.
Refunds will be deposited into account within 48 hours. Maximum refund per customer, per household €30/£30.

Manchester City v Everton

If There Is A Goal In The Last 5 Minutes, We Will Refund All Losing Goalscorer Bets From This Match

Offer open to all account holders based in Ireland and the UK. One Refund per customer. One Refund per household.
Refunds will be deposited into account within 48 hours. Maximum refund per customer, per household €30/£30.

Click Here For More Details – New Users Get a Risk Free £10 Bet Too

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

‘Appy Haydock

It’s ‘Appy Saturday again today as the Racing Post are once again giving all their mobile customers a second chance just for using their mobile app.

Bet through the Racing Post app and if your horse finishes second to LONG RUN in the Betfair Chase (3:05 Haydock) your stake will be refunded as a free bet.

Place a bet of £1 or more on this race and you can even watch it LIVE through the app – so don’t worry if you are out and about!

This offer is available to both new and existing users alike – simply download our app for free or visit m.racingpost.com on any smartphone.

* In order to get the most from the app and bet on the move you’ll need a William Hill account. It only takes a couple of minutes to setup and means you can make informed bets wherever you roam. Plus you’ll get a FREE £25 Bet too!

No way to lock in a guaranteed risk free profit so this is a another one of those, find a good match up in back / lay odds (and hope). But if your horse does come second then you will collect your lay winnings at the betting exchange and get a refund from the bookmaker. So well worth a look at least. Remember we picked off a few of these during the big meetings earlier this year like Cheltenham and Ascot.

So sometimes it does pay to be a close second!

And this might be handy, our online calculator to help you workout all the stakes for you, just click here

Don’t forget we have the best odds for all the day’s race meetings right here too

So if you have an account already then you are all set if not, then you can bag a free £25 sign up bet too. Of course we have it all covered in Oddsmatcher so finding a match to lock in more risk free profits could not be easier. Then you too can join in all the risk free gaming fun!

So you collect a free £25 on the footy and then start tucking into the risk free feast all week long too, brilliant!

As you will be getting risk free offer after risk free offer from Billy Hill, look what you have been missing over the last few weeks….

WILLIAM HILL RISK FREE OFFERS

Here is the link to get signed up with and get cracking…..

Terms and conditions:

If the named selection doesn’t run then the offer is void but bet stands > Applies to bets placed via m.racingpost.com, a mobile handset or a downloaded Racing Post native app.
Applies to single bets only.
Multiple bets (eg. Lucky 15s, doubles, trebles etc) DO NOT COUNT for this offer.
Applies to bets placed after 5.30pm on the day prior to the race and to bets placed on the day of the race.
Ante-post bets DO NOT COUNT for this offer.
Maximum refund per customer, per race £50/€50.
Applies to win or each-way single bets. Refund will only be applied to the win part of each-way bets.
Free bet will be credited before 10am the day AFTER the race.
Free bet is valid for 7 days from the time it is credited to your account.

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Today’s Best Horse Racing Odds

Betfred: Sunday Cheltenham Refund

2nd Place Refunds

1:45pm Cheltenham Offer – Sunday Live on Channel 4

Intermediate Handicap Hurdle

If your horse finishes second to the SP Favourite in the 1:45pm race at Cheltenham, Fred will refund your losing stake as a free bet.

Plus

Best Odds Guaranteed

Available on all UK and Irish Horse Racing all day every day. Take an early price on your selection and if the SP returned is bigger we’ll pay you out at the bigger price. The offer does not apply to prices taken after the first show

Bonuses On Up To 10 Races Everyday

15% bonus added to all correct Yankees/L15′s
50% bonus added to all correct Canadians/L31′s
100% bonus added to all correct Heinzs/L63′s

Betfred also apply a 10% Bonus to all Forecasts and Tricasts in the Daily Super Bonus Races

See site for all the daily qualifying races

Click Here For More Details – New Users Get a Free £50 Bet Too

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Today’s Best Horse Racing Odds

Betfred: Cheltenham Refund

2nd Place Refunds

Irish Times Conditional (Handicap) – 3:35 Cheltenham

If your horse finishes second to the SP Favourite in the 3:35 race at Cheltenham, Fred will refund your losing stake as a free bet.

Plus

Best Odds Guaranteed

Available on all UK and Irish Horse Racing all day every day. Take an early price on your selection and if the SP returned is bigger we’ll pay you out at the bigger price. The offer does not apply to prices taken after the first show

Bonuses On Up To 10 Races Everyday

15% bonus added to all correct Yankees/L15′s
50% bonus added to all correct Canadians/L31′s
100% bonus added to all correct Heinzs/L63′s

Betfred also apply a 10% Bonus to all Forecasts and Tricasts in the Daily Super Bonus Races

See site for all the daily qualifying races

Click Here For More Details – New Users Get a Free £50 Bet Too

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Today’s Best Horse Racing Odds

Betfred: 100 And Running

100 And Running

Sweden v England – International Friendly – Wednesday 7:30pm Live on ITV1

Back Steven Gerrard to score first and if does not score the 1st goal, but scores at any time in the match, Fred will refund you losing first goalscorer bet as a free bet.

Offer applies to betfred.com and mobile. Offer is fulfilled in free bets. Maximum free bet refund £200. Singles only.

Click Here For More Details – New Users Get a Free £50 Bet Too

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Betvictor: Murray Refunds

Murray Refunds

ATP World Tour Finals, O2 Arena, London – November 5th – 12th, Live on Sky Sports

If Andy Murray wins the ATP World Tour Finals BetVictor will refund all losing pre-event Outright Winner market bets as free bets, up to a maximum of £50 per person/household.

ATP World Tour Finals, O2 Arena, London – November 5th – 12th, Live on Sky Sports

Offer applies to all pre-event Outright Winner market single bets only and the win part of each-way bets only. Multiple bets will not count. Bets placed on the “Live” part of the website and in-running (IR) bets will not qualify.
Bets placed using Promo Cash will not qualify – real money bets only. Void bets will not qualify. The maximum total refund is £50 in Promo Cash per person or household irrespective of the number of outright market bets placed or the value of these bets. Andy Murray must lift the trophy and be declared the official winner.

Click Here For More Details – New Users Get a Free £25 Bet Too

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Best Tournament Odds

Next Men’s Singles Matches

Ladbrokes: Lambert Refunds

Lambert Refunds

If Rickie Lambert scores the first or last goal in the West Bromwich Albion v Southampton game (20:00, 5/11/2012), we will refund losing first goalscorer bets, up to £100, in the form of a free bet token.

Offer is available to new and existing online, phone, mobile and shop customers

Click Here For More Details – New Users Get a Free £50 Bet Too

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

Betvictor: 5 Goal Anfield Refunds

Five Goal Refunds

Liverpool v Newcastle, Sunday November 4, 16:00 Live on Sky Sports 1

BetVictor will refund all losing pre-event First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast Bets to a max of £50 per person if there are 5 Goals or more scored in this match

Only losing bets placed pre-event will count. Bets placed on the Live section of the site of in-running (IR) will not count.
The maximum refund to any person or household is £50 in total, or currency equivalent. Refund will apply to the selected and named markets only – First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast markets only. Telephone, internet and mobile bets only.

Click Here For More Details – New Users Get a Free £25 Bet Too

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

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