If, When, Why, What…..

February 21, 2017 by  
Filed under News

One from our video vault but very prevalent with so many existing user offers about now (see here)

Recently we have seen a tremendous increase in the number of conditional or “IF” offers from a range of bookmakers but can you actually make a profit from them?

Only one way to find out, with the help of a video and a very handy spreadsheet.

Come and have a look……


Download the spreadsheet, as featured in the video, here

Let’s have a look in black and white too….

Can you make a risk free profit from these types of IF xxxx offers?

The easiest way to understand it, is to think of it just the same way as a normal matched bet, but with a very restricted market for the qualifying bet, and only one market for the free bet!

The Offer

If match A ends 0-0 Bookmaker A will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match upto a certain maximum

In the case of the 0-0 refund offers, your ‘free bet’ will ‘win’ at the bookies, if the game ends 0-0. The amount it will win is equivalent to the stake you place for your qualifying bet.

The most important thing to remember is that, just like with normal matched betting, you should treat the two bets independently of each other – each part makes its own profit or loss, and don’t try and think of too many combinations of outcome.

An important point to remember here is that both events must be mutually exclusive – it must not be the case that both can happen! Otherwise, you could end up winning at the bookie, for the qualifying bet, but having to pay out on the lay on the ‘insurance’/free bet part. As you won’t be receiving anything back from the bookie for this part (as your original bet won) you would end up down in cash. 0-0 insurance is great, as long as you back any other score (a game can’t end with two scores!).

Take a onetime England offer from Paddypower, who said they would refund all losing first goalscorer bets if Wayne Rooney scored anytime in 90 mins, in a particular England match.

This could be guaranteed profitable only if the qualifying event i.e. a correct score bet – did not have any chance for Rooney to score, i.e. you could bet on 1-0 to the opposition, but not 2-1 (as Rooney could have scored England’s 1 goal).

The key is you need to find a very good qualifying bet where the back odds at the bookmaker on the selection I want are close to the lay odds at the betting exchange.

To get a rough calculation of the profit on the 0-0 refund, you need to look at the odds for 0-0 on your exchange (i.e., Betfair). Divide the maximum refund by the lay odds for 0-0 and take off your commission, typically 5% (for example, by multiplying through the answer by 0.95) to get a good approximation.

Here’s an example:

Place a bet and get it refunded if the game ends 0-0. Maximum £100 stake will be refunded.

Say the lay odds available on Betfair are 8.

Then the profit from the 0-0 insurance will be roughly £100/8 * 0.95 = £11.88

So you want a qualifier that loses less than £11.88 to make this worthwhile. You must also note that there may be wagering requirements on the bet refund or the refund may be in the form of a free bet (which may or may not be stake returned). If this is the case, you should approximate how much this will cost you and adjust accordingly!

Say your refund is given as an Stake Not Returned free bet, then you can reasonably expect to make 80% back, the true value of your refunded stake is £24 and the calculation become 24/8 * .95 = £9.50 profit

If you are satisfied that it’s worth doing then place your qualifying bet as normal – you now need to work out how much to lay on the 0-0.

To do this, enter the value refund amount, (remember this will be 100% of the amount for cashback or stake returned offers and 80% of stake not returned ones) as the Back Stake and put in ‘1′ as the Back Odds in the Bet72 Matched Betting spreadsheet. The lay odds for 0-0 and finally enter your exchange commission rate.

This will show the correct lay stake.

All the usual caveats about odds possibly changing mid way through etc do apply, so please bear this in mind and only do this if you are confident you can get your bets on at the prices you are calculating for. If you find an arb, there is no hurry to bet on the 0-0, but it’s some extra profit so why not.

OK here’s an example (fictional of course!):

If Match A ends 0-0 Bookmaker A will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match upto £100

Just look to back anything that is mutually exclusive from a 0-0 result i.e. TeamA to win, TeamB to win, any scoreline apart from 0-0, any goalscorer or any HT/FT result other than draw/draw. Whatever gives us the best match up in back/lay odds combination

Once you’ve picked your qualifying bet, match it out for as little loss as possible – back/lay it so that you win/lose the same amount no matter what the result using the regular matched betting calculations.

After that, you then go on to lay the stake refund condition/outcome i.e. 0-0, to lock in a profit.

Example:

Back TEAM A 1-0 @ The Bookmaker at odds of 7 with £100

Lay TEAM A 1-0 @ The Exchange at odds of 7.2 with £97.90 (a £606.99 liability)

This gives a £6.99 loss whatever the outcome.

Then 0-0 @ The Exchange at odds of 10 with £10.05 (a £90.45 liability)

So possible outcomes are on the result are:

Score not 0-0 = +£9.55 (winning 0-0 lay bet less commission @ 5%) – -£6.99 (qualifying bet) = £2.56 profit.

Score is 0-0 = -£90.45 (losing 0-0 lay bet) -£6.99 (qualifying bet) + £100 (stake refund from bookie) = £2.56 profit.

So if you are happy with the potential gain for the time you will spend doing it and amount of cash required and how long it could be tied up for, then you are good to go!

Here’s another IF example from Cheltenham but still very relevant

The Offer

If Cue Card wins the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Paddy Power will refund single and the win section of each-way bets placed on others runners in the race up to £200/€200.

So we just need to BACK / LAY any other horse in the race and then LAY Cue Card to lock a profit.

Obviously we are still looking at Antepost prices here but as an example (at the time of typing) you could:

BACK Spirit Son at PP with £200 at 6.5
LAY Spirit Son at Betfair with £167.74 at 7.8 (£1140.65 liability)

and LAY Cue Card at Betfair with £58 at 3.5 (£145 liability)

Possible oucomes:

Spirit Son Wins

= +£1100 at PP – £1140.65 at BF + £55.10 (lay on CueCard at BF less 5%) = £14.45 profit

Spirit Son Loses and Cue Card Loses Too

= -£200 at PP + £159.35 at BF (lay on Spirit Son less 5%) + £55.10 (lay on CueCard at BF less 5%) = £14.45 profit

Spirit Son Loses and Cue Card Wins

= 0 at PP (lose £200, get £200 refund) + £159.35 at BF (lay on Spirit Son less 5%) – £145.00 (lay on CueCard at BF) = £14.35 profit

This is an example of splitting the profit equally over all outcomes but of couse you could weight the bets to favour one or the other a little more depending on whether you think Cue Card will win or not. So at worse it would be a risk free punt with a decent upside!

As always if you have been affected by any issues raised in this article then please don’t hesitate to contact us at info@bet72.com

BetRedKings: Super Sunday Freebie

November 8, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings, Football

Super Sunday Freebie

Can Spurs get something from the reigning Champions? Can the Reds beat the Blues in London? Enjoy 2 great games this Super Sunday with a BetRedKings Live Bet

Here’s how to get your Free Bet:

Make a deposit using deposit code TOURE
Place a live bet with amount €/£/$ 10 or over on Manchester City – Tottenham.
If your initial bet loses you will get a €/£/$ 5 live Free Bet on the Chelsea – Liverpool game later the same day
Place your Free Bet and Good Luck!

Note: Due to the abuse of bonus promotions, customers using Ukash, Paysafecard, Webmoney, Moneybookers or Neteller to deposit will not qualify for this free bet offer.

Click Here For More Details

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BetRedKings: Premiership Freebie

November 1, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings, Football

Premiership Freebie

Is Van Persie going to torment his old team? Can Liverpool get all 3 points at Anfield. Enjoy 2 great games with a BetRedKings Free Bet.

Here’s how to get your Free Bet:

Make a deposit using deposit code PERSIE
Place a bet with amount €/£/$ 20 or over on Manchester United – Arsenal 3rd November.
If your initial bet loses you will get a €/£/$ 10 Free Bet on the Liverpool – Newcastle on the 4th November.
Place your Free Bet and Good Luck!

Note: Due to the abuse of bonus promotions, customers using Ukash, Paysafecard, Webmoney, Moneybookers or Neteller to deposit will not qualify for this free bet offer.

Click Here For More Details

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

BetRedKings: Super Sunday Cashback

October 28, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings, Football

Super Sunday Cashback

The first Merseyside Derby Everton – Liverpool is played this Sunday along with Chelsea – Manchester United. Enjoy the matches with a live free bet offer from BetRedKings. Here’s how to get your Free Bet:

Make a deposit using deposit code EVELIV
Place a live bet with amount €/£/$ 10 or over on Everton – Liverpool.
If your initial bet loses you will get a €/£/$5 live Free Bet on the Chelsea – Manchester United game later the same day

Note: Due to the abuse of bonus promotions, customers using Ukash, Paysafecard, Webmoney, Moneybookers or Neteller to deposit will not qualify for this free bet offer.

Click Here For More Details

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

BetRedKings: Derby Weekend Cashback

October 20, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings, Football

Derby Weekend Cashback

Players are back from the internationals break and there are a couple of big derby matches on offer. Bet on the London Derby Tottenham – Chelsea and get a free bet for the Wear-Tyne Derby Sunderland – Newcastle.

Here’s how to get your Free Bet:

Make a deposit using deposit code OCTDERBY
Place a bet with amount €/£/$ 20 or over on Tottenham – Chelsea match Saturday 20 October.
If your initial bet loses you will get a €/£/$ 10 Free Bet on the Sunderland – Newcastle match Sunday 21 October
Place your Free Bet and Good Luck!

Note: Due to the abuse of bonus promotions, customers using Ukash, Paysafecard, Webmoney, Moneybookers or Neteller to deposit will not qualify for this free bet offer.

Click Here For More Details

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

BetRedKings: World Cup Freebie

October 12, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings, Football

World Cup Freebie

The World Cup qualifiers continue this Friday and Tuesday so why not use an exclusive FREE BET to help get your weekend to a winning start?

Here’s how to get your Free Bet:

Make a deposit using deposit code WCQOCT
Place a bet with amount €/£/$ 20 or over on any of the World Cup qualifier matches Friday 12 October
If your initial bet loses you will get a €/£/$ 10 Free Bet on any World Cup Qualifier Match Tuesday 16 October
Place your Free Bet and Good Luck

Note: Due to the abuse of bonus promotions, customers using Ukash, Paysafecard, Webmoney, Moneybookers or Neteller to deposit will not qualify for this free bet offer.



Click Here For More Details

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

Betredkings: Moneychester Free Bets

September 22, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings, Football

Moneychester Free Bets

Bet Live on Liverpool – Manchester United and get a live free bet on the Manchester City – Arsenal game.

Make a deposit using deposit code LIVMAN.

Place a live bet with amount €/£/$ 10 or over on Liverpool – Manchester United.
If your initial bet loses you will get a €/£/$ 5 live Free Bet on the Manchester City – Arsenal game later the same day

Note: Due to the abuse of bonus promotions, customers using Ukash, Paysafecard, Webmoney, Moneybookers or Neteller to deposit will not qualify for this free bet offer.

Click Here For More Details

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

BetRedKings: Free Premier League Bet

September 16, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings, Football

Football

Free Premier League Bet

Make a deposit using deposit code EVENEW

Place a bet with amount €/£/$ 20 or over on any of the Premier League matches on Saturday 15 or Sunday 16 September. If your initial bet loses you will get a €/£/$ 10 Free Bet on the Everton – Newcastle game Monday 17 September

Note: Due to the abuse of bonus promotions, customers using Ukash, Paysafecard, Webmoney, Moneybookers or Neteller to deposit will not qualify for this free bet offer.

Click Here For More Details

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

Betredkings: Cashback Kings

September 1, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings, Casino & Games

Cashback Kings

You can earn cash back on losses at BetRedKings, choose between a weekly program to receive 10% cash back or a monthly program to receive 20% cash back.

Receive cash back on all real money losses, cash back is added to the bonus balance and can be withdrawn after it has been wagered once at odds of 1.5 or bigger.

Minimum Cash Back £5 – Maximum Cash Back £1000 in weekly program, £4000 in monthly program

Click Here For More Details

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Betredkings: Free Football Shirt

August 1, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings

Football

Bet at BetRedKings and get a FREE Football shirt of your choice

How to get your Football Shirt:

Make a deposit to BetRedKings with bonus code “BRKEURO” and get a FREE football shirt after you complete the betting Requirements *

“If you are betting anyway, why not get a football shirt out of it”

Note: Due to the abuse of bonus promotions customers using Paysafecard, Webmoney, Moneybookers or Neteller to deposit will not qualify for this bonus offer.

*Terms for the EuroKings bonus*

The deposit bonus offer can be found in your account under active promotions.
BetRedKings.com will cover the price of a football shirt up to 85 EURO (£70, $113) inc. delivery costs. You must turnover this amount 10 times before you are able to claim your Football shirt. So the total requirement is €850 (£700, $1130)
You are required to place you bets with odds 1.5 or greater for them to be valid for the turnover calculation.
Only fully settled bets (ie bets that result in a win or loss) will count towards wagering
Minimum deposit is $/€/£ 10

Click Here For More Details

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Best Odds For Upcoming Games

Betredkings: Euro 2012 Offers

June 19, 2012 by  
Filed under Betredkings, Existing User Offers

Risk Free Bet on England

Just make a €20 (£20, $30) bet on England to win the EURO2012 and if they cannot get through the group stages, get your money back

Single bets only.Offer applies only to bets on England to win the football EURO 2012 tournament in the outright winner market.Bet must be placed before midday on 8.6 CET.To qualify for the offer, bet must be £20 (€20, $20) or more. Refund amount of exactly £20 (€20, $20) is given only if England does not get through the Group Stages.The maximum refund is £20 (€20, $20 depending on currency of the account.

3 In-Play Free Bets

Get an In-Play Free Bet for each round of the group stages

Make a deposit using Deposit Code: EUROD1
Place a €20 (£20, $30) pre-game bet with odds 1.5 or over on France – England
After the initial bet is settled, you will receive a €10 (£10, 15) In-Play Free Bet for the Ukraine – Sweden game.
Code Valid: Between 4.6.2012 – 11.6. 2012

Make a deposit using Deposit Code: EUROD2
Place a €20 (£20, $30) pre-game bet with odds 1.5 or over on Ukraine – France
After the initial bet is settled, you will receive a €10 (£10, 15) In-Play Free Bet for the Sweden – England game.
Code Valid: Between 12.6.2012 – 15.6. 2012

Make a deposit using Deposit Code: EUROD3
Place a €20 (£20, $30) pre-game bet with odds 1.5 or over on Croatia – Spain
After the initial bet is settled, you will receive a €10 (£10, 15) In-Play Free Bet for the England – Ukraine game.
Code Valid: Between 16.6.2012 – 19.6. 2012

Note: WebMoney, Moneybookers, Neteller, Ukash or Paysafecard deposits are not eligible for this promotion
NOTE! You are not eligible for this offer if you have an other bonus/Free Bet active when making the deposit or placing the bet.

Click Here For More Details

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Euro 2012 Best Odds

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