Draw Inflation
January 24, 2012 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
Just had this in from Adster over at prematchtrading.com concerning currently very under utilised aspect of Football Trading, Draw Inflation.
Over to you Adster……
We are finding there are more and more games where we can take advantage of via Shirley (our price misalignment software).
These include :
• We’re trading the Match Odds so we get matched almost immediately.
• Liquidity is better in Match Odds than any other market.
• Even lesser games we wouldn’t normally touch due to lack of £££ we can get involved in and nick a few ££££ allowing more flexibility and trading opportunities aside the big live games.
• Those with less time can jump on these, make their green and move on very quickly.
• Shirley tells us exactly what the draw Inflation is, making this an even more powerful tool.
The majority of football models are based on the poisson distribution and so is Shirley – a heavily modified poisson model which allows for teams correlation and leagues specific corrections.
Historically poisson models have been predicting draw outcomes to occur less often and the error has been around 10%, therefrom the draw inflation – inflating/increasing the probability of draws and of course draw scores 0-0/1-1 etc.
What is too high/low then?
That’s relative, anything between 5-15% is alright but if you see an inflation around or below 0% that would be low, respectively an inflation above 20% would be high, in some Italian B games however draw inflation’s have been as high as 200%, those games in which the draw trades around 1.50 at KO 
What to do when we spot a low inflation?
The inflation depends on match odds and total goals so there are a number of scenarios:
• match odds remain the same, u2.5 drifts
• draw steams, dog drifts, u2.5 stays the same
• draw steams, faves drift, u2.5 steams
• draw remains the same, dog drifts, u2.5 drifts
and quite a few more of these…
A trade that would win in most cases – back the draw and lay the dog, if you could get matched laying/backing at back/lay prices that would be best.
For high inflations – the opposite – lay draw and back dog.
To find out more about how you can get involved just click below…….
And you can catch up with all the latest over at Premnatching TV…..
And you can catch up on all of Shirley’s big screen appearances over here at Shirley TV!
Join The List And Get 1-2-3, Yes 3 Free Videos
January 1, 2012 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
That is a lot of 3′s or free’s in one title we know, but we just wanted to highlight this fantastic offer over at our sister site, www.bettingsystemnotes.com
Join our mailing list over there and you can pick up a copy of our most successful football trading strategy and 3 (yes 1-2-3) of our premium videos to help get you started, all for, you guessed it, free!
So don’t delay, get over to www.bettingsystemnotes.com and grab those 3 / Three / Freebies!
50 Reasons To Get Mobile
November 29, 2011 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bets
Betting on the move has never been easier (well of course you don’t have to be moving you can sit down and do it) thanks to the variety of mobile apps and services that are now available. But we are amazed at how many people have not done it yet?
So if you have not tried a bit of mobile action on Betfair then we have 50 (yes £50) reasons to have a go, thanks to this stunning offer.
Yes they are offering a massive 25% cashback upto £50 (in cold hard cash) when you make you first bet using their mobile apps.
1. Opt-in to the promotion via the offer page here
2. Download the app to your mobile device
3. Place a back bet with a minimum stake of £25 (min odds 1.5)
4. Win OR Lose you will get 25% of you stake back with 72 hours (upto a max £50)
So you will need a back bet of £200 to get the full £50 cashback.
Wow. How good is that!
Having already used the mobile software in the past I couldn’t have a go but Mrs Bet72′s certainly put her iPhone (and new Betfair account) to good use I can tell you and she has had the cashback credited already, brilliant. Well keeps me in the good books!
So even if you have done this before this could be the perfect time to get your “Other Half” signed up!
Naturally you / he / she / anyone will be needing a Betfair account too, ideal for all these little extras they keep chucking at us recently. So if you don’t have one you can grab a free £25 sign up bonus too before collecting your mobile cashback as well.
Just click below to get started:
and of course if your are looking to lay these bets off, then you will be needing a second betting exchange. So here is 200 reasons to get one of these, brilliant!
You must have opted in to the promotion first to be eligible for any cashback. Opt in here.
The promotion period begins at 00:00:01 GMT on Wednesday 9th November and finishes at 23:59:59 GMT Wednesday 30th November (“Promotional Period”).
To take advantage of the cashback offer, you must place a minimum £25 back bet on your mobile and it must be your first ever mobile bet at Betfair. Your bet must also settle within the Promotional Period.
Customers who place further bets in the same market to reduce the liability on their qualifying bet will not be eligible.
Your bet must be placed using a Betfair mobile application or a mobile version of the Betfair website. If your bet is placed on the web version of www.betfair.com, it will not count towards this promotion.
Should the above conditions be met, 25% of your original stake will be refunded.
This offer is for new Betfair Mobile customers only.
Any void or unmatched bets will not count towards this promotion.
Your qualifying bet must have a minimum odds of 1.5
Maximum cashback per customer in this promotion is £50.
Cashback will be paid into the accounts of qualifying customers within 72 hours of bets being settled.
Betfair Standard Terms & Conditions apply.
The Geeks Toy Now With Training Mode
November 8, 2011 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
Fancy getting into sports trading but are a little worried about the effect it might have on your balance if you make a few mistakes as you learn the ropes? And whilst risk free betting is the perfect way to grow your betting exchange balance to play with how about a second option too.
Well he latest version of the brilliant Geek’s Toy software (the FREE Betfair trading application) now includes a very handy new feature, a full blown Training Mode.
Over to The Geek himself to explain all….
Training Mode
In this version you will be given an option at log in to use either Betfair Live or Training mode. To choose Training Mode, select it from the “Betfair Live” drop down next to the login button. In training mode you will be playing with pretend money. Once you have logged in, you can set your starting bank via Main Info Bar Menu->Training Mode Starting Bank
As there is no current accurate way to determine the market settlement, then in training mode your bank is automatically adjusted in line with your market exposure. Should you have a greened market, your balance is adjusted upwards minus 5% commission to simulate real market settlement. Should you blow your training bank, you will need to restart the application. { I did that deliberately just so you can feel a little pain.
}
This is the very first release of training mode, and other than brief testing by me, it hasn’t been used in anger yet so expect a bug or two as a hell of a lot of new code went into it. I have stuck it in the live release without extensive testing as there is no risk to your money in the event of a lock up / crash. Should you come across any bugs please report them here.
Also note that although I have done my best to simulate real market behaviour, training mode does not accurately reflect real money trading. This is for a variety of reasons, the main being that markets react to real money being placed which they can not do with dummy money. Whilst training mode is a good way to learn the product and the markets, there is no substitute for the real thing.
We can’t wait to try this out, imagine being able to play around with all the strategies and trading ideas with no risk to your Betfair balance. In fact this looks like a marriage made in heaven for our sister product over at
Play with each of the strategies, see how they pan out in the live markets all risk free and once your are happy with the way to play out, switch to live mode and go for them green screens, brilliant.
We will be covering this is great detail over the coming weeks that is for sure.
If you haven’t come across the software before then you are in for a treat. The Toy is a premium betting and trading application for Betfair, the world’s leading betting exchange. It is one of the highest performing, most user friendly, flexible and customisable applications in the marketplace today. It introduces many previously unseen features to boost your performance and productivity whilst trading. Best of all, it’s completely free to use. Not a free trial, not free limited functionality, but 100% FREE.
Here’s a couple of videos showing a basic introduction to this great bit of software….
So to grab yourself a copy of the free trading platform it’s all on the homepage www.geekstoy.com head for the bright, shiny download button and start trading, for FREE, today and start playing with a risk free bank.
Here is a little taster of the software in action, for their latest video portfolio (the full set is coming soon to bet72)
Scalping For Pounds
October 25, 2011 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
When trading then scalping is a powerful weapon to have in your armoury, as it can not only get you out of trouble, it can get you a decent free position too.
Here is Adster from Trading Football demonstrating one very powerful technique.
We also have an excellent scalping guide included within our sister site www.bettingsystemnotes.com
So there’s just another reason to come and join us over there (as if you need another one!).
And if you want to find out more about the Trading Football guys themselves, then just click below…..
And of course get over to www.bettingsystemnotes.com and you can grab 3 free videos to get you started into the world of profitable football trading!
Another Free Live Football Trading Webinar
October 18, 2011 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
Just had this in from the Trading Football guys Adster and Bingo who want to show everyone how to scalp the football markets on Betfair.
Yes the boys are hosting a live webinar to show what scalping is all about and why it is so important for all football traders. The event is live this coming Saturday afternoon (22nd) from 2pm and everyone is invited!
When trading then scalping is a powerful weapon to have in your armoury, as it can not only get you out of trouble, it can get you a decent free position too.
The boys will show a video or 2, discuss Scalping and give out a word document to attendees plus perhaps look at a live 3pm example plus they will be looking at giving out some free memberships tomorrow in our Green Room so please make sure you have the afternoon free to be involved from 2pm to 5pm.
Hope to see you there.
For full details of how to join please click the banner below…..
Welcome to The Real Trader Charity Challenge
September 23, 2011 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
Fancy seeing inside some profitable traders Betfair accounts?
Well now you can and help support a fantastic fundraising gesture from the guys over at GeeksToy (the free betfair software).
The Geek is offering up £2K, yes £2000, in return for proven profitable traders to let us have a sneaky peek inside their account activity. As if that wasn’t enough, half of the money goes to my Charity Run pot (wow what a result!).
Breaking News…..
Join in with the Real Traders Charity Challenge & get free lifetime access to Betting System Notes – Read More Here
This is absolutely superb and I urge everyone to support the site by taking a look at “The Real Trader” charity challenge. Over to The Geek to explain some more….
Welcome to “The Real Trader” charity challenge.
In this challenge to a maximum of £2000, I will be offering £150 each up to charity for those consistent winners that provide either a video of their 3 month Betfair P&L, or their 3 month P&L plus their lifetime P&L via the premium portal. Any money raised will be split 50:50 between Darren Hall’s latest charity run, and the Children in Need fundraiser planned for November.
Here’s all the details about the challenge
And here are the postings so far….
Come and See The Traders Accounts
Like I say this is an absolutely fantastic gesture from the site and we cannot thank them enough for this, it really will make a massive difference to the fundraising effort.
So please do take time out to visit the site and give this challenge the support it deserves.
If you haven’t come across the software before then you are in for a treat. The Toy is a premium betting and trading application for Betfair, the world’s leading betting exchange. It is one of the highest performing, most user friendly, flexible and customisable applications in the marketplace today. It introduces many previously unseen features to boost your performance and productivity whilst trading. Best of all, it’s completely free to use. Not a free trial, not free limited functionality, but 100% FREE.
Here’s a couple of videos showing a basic introduction to this great bit of software….
So to grab yourself a copy of the free trading platform it’s all on the homepage www.geekstoy.com head for the bright, shiny download button and start trading, for FREE, today and start playing with a risk free bank.
Here is a little taster of the software in action, for their latest video portfolio (the full set is coming soon to bet72)
It Feels Like Christmas Is Coming Already!
August 3, 2011 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
We have some very big news coming very soon over at our sister site www.bettingsystemnotes.com, a new piece of software that will revolutionise the way you trade football matches forever.
Nicknamed “MarketMatcher” the software will find potential trades on the day’s inplay football on Betfair by matching our proven profitable trading strategies with the up and coming games, genius!
Update: More profits in testing, this time a 45% ROI on an Adster Aperitif
Update: And again, this time a 58% ROI on a Nugget Nibble, wow!
Remember we are using really minimal stakes here as the liquidity is far from upto full speed yet, but the profits just keep on coming!
This software is still in beta testing but all the signs looking good for lift off very, very soon.
Update: I gave it a little whirl and pulled over 50% ROI profit on a very low liquidity game featuring Rapid Bucharest and Genk, kerching!
I only used £30 trading stakes here and pulled in almost half the cost of joining the site for life in under an hour! And the best news of all, it will be FREE for everyone who has joined the website
As you can imagine we are really excited by this new application, the testing goes on for us to make sure everything is ready for the new season. So watch this space for all the latest development news, feels a little like the build up to Christmas for me this!
In fact better still, get over to www.bettingsystemnotes.com and join our mailing list over there, not only will you be first to know when the application is available but you can also pick up a free trading strategy and 3 (yes 1-2-3) of our premium videos to help get you started.
Or even better, better still. Sign up to the website, start playing with the brilliant current software and all the extra goodies and then you will be all set to go once the new toys appear. Just click below and stand by for green screens all the way with www.bettingsystemnotes.com
Under 21′s = Over £42 Profit
June 15, 2011 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
Anytime, anyplace, anywhere. It really doesn’t matter, you can make a profit if you have the right underlying strategy.
And whilst many people think the football season is over and we just have a few dead end games with nothing going on, they couldn’t be more wrong. If there is some green to be had the strategies over at www.bettingsystemnotes.com will sniff them out.
Last night was a perfect example, the Denmark v Belarus U21’s game was a perfect fit for one of our favourite all time and longest running strategies, the Adster Aperitif. The entry conditions were right, the market stacked up just right for the strategy and it was game on. The trade played out virtually to perfection 0-1, 1-1 in the first half then 2-1 to the Danish favs in the 2nd half but by then the profit was already secured.
Below is a screenshot sent to me by one of our players (I was trading this via my mobile so could get a screenshoot of my profits but it was virtually the same. Again anytime, anyplace, anywhere!) just playing using minimum recommended stakes, he covered the cost of the entire lifetime membership to the site from just one trade!
So if you want some green screens like this then hop over to www.bettingsystemnotes.com where you will see that this is just 1 of the 13 proven profitable football trading strategies included within the site.
Not to mention the suite of trading videos, hints, tips and risk free profit guides etc…..etc…..
The site again www.bettingsystemnotes.com
It really is a no brainer.
How’s That For A Free Weekends Trading
May 16, 2011 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
Not a bad weekend for the traders over at Trading Football
6 recommended trades giving 5 winners and one scratch (no win / no loss) leading to a massive £150 profit to recommended stakes.
Here’s some views for the weekend chat room…..
So in theory you could have signed up for their current 5 for 4 right offer. Had 5 months membership in the bag and still have £50+ left to trade the next load of games after just one weekend. You really cannot say fairer than that.
To find out more and be part of the green crowd, just click below….
Trading Your Way Out Of Trouble
April 30, 2011 by Darren Hall
Filed under Bet72 News
Another awesome football trading video hot off the press is the latest video from the Trading Football boys.
And once again we see the master at work, Bingo Little, as he utilises multiple markets on Betfair to turn a potentially nasty looking losing trade into a nice profitable one.
This will give you a flavour of what is included, media wise, on the inside of the site of our latest site…..
Not heard of it, where have you been……this will give you a taster…..
And all this is backed up by some great video content too. For example each video (we are into double figures with the now), is of premium quality with careful step by step explanation of the strategy scenario, entry and exit points and invaluable tips & pointers as each trade unfolds.
It is like having a professional trader, right there, in the room with you.
So for now just settle back and watch/listen to Bingo Little doing what he does best….
Kindly provided by Trading Football
