The Weekend Wager from Secret Betting Club
Posted on March 5, 2011 by Darren Hall
Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced by the Secret Betting Club
Each and every Friday through this column we bring together some of the finest experts to give you betting tips, advice and guidance for the next 7 days..
1. Mike Says..
In this column, Secret Betting Club co-editor and professional gambler Mike Bishop discusses some of the weeks most topical betting issues.
From a technology perspective, it’s never been easier to be a punter. Most of us these days are aware that we no longer have to head down to the high street bookmakers in the bookies in the rain to place our bets. We can do all our betting from the comfort of our PC. Log-on, click a few buttons and voila – our bets are on!
The only downside of this (if you can call it that) is the need to be behind a computer. This is not always practical for many reasons, perhaps the wife wants to take you shopping or you have to surreptitiously bet at work when the boss isn’t looking.
Well if that’s the case for you, help is at hand thanks to the technology out there now to help you bet from phone to PC. With the right smart-phone, some easy to use software and a bit of guidance, it’s never been easier to use your phone (or iPad) to remotely access your PC at home and use that to place your bets. When doing this you are can effectively use all aspects of your PC, simply via your phone’s screen.
There are big advantages to this, as very often your PC can access websites in full rather than a stripped down phone version as well as being a lot more powerful overall. Odds comparison sites like www.oddsportal.com or www.bestbetting.com are so much easier to access via your PC, helping you to spot the best odds quicker.
Our Tech Expert Explains How
That is why in this month’s latest issue of the Secret Betting Club, we had our tech expert write a full explanation of all you need to bet from phone to PC. This includes explaining some of the tech jargon (there isn’t much to learn here) and a look at the best mobile phones currently on the market to use. He also detailed the £18 software called Logmein needed to help you connect your phone to your PC and how easy it is to use.
If you want to bet on the move, this article is a must-read and if will also help you if you are simply keen to find out the best phone for directly betting with. There is so much choice these days on whether to choose an iPhone, Android or Windows 7 mobile phone and he shares the pro’s and con’s on all the different options available.
You can pick this article up in SBC 58 as soon as you join us via Secret Betting Club
Until next week…
Mike Bishop
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2. Mike’s Football Bets
My football betting this weekend starts over at the Reebok where Bolton host Villa in a game where I feel the over 2.5 goals line is offering value. Bolton’s home games have seen an average of 3 goals scored, whilst Villa’s similar away record is 3.14 goals so the odds of 2.03 on offer for over 2.5 goals is worth a pop. Villa are also going to be missing Cuellar and James Collins, 2 very important defenders although with the likes of Bent, Young and Albrighton will retain a real cutting edge up front.
I’m going for the same goals outlook when Wolves host Spurs on Sunday as both these teams have seen the overs mark hit in respective home and away games 64% and 57% of times. With 2.10 on over 2.5 goals, the bookies think this a 47.6% chance, where I make it around 55% so big value by my calculations. Spurs also have most of their creative hub back with Modric & Van Der Vaart fit and I can’t see Wolves defence keeping a clean sheet.
My last main bet features Man City against a Wigan team who ship goals against the very best teams as in their 7 games against the top 5 this season they have scored 2, yet conceded 19! It was a similar pattern last year and they will really struggle with the pace and movement of Tevez, Dzeko, Ballotelli and Silva if fit. You can get 1.90 on Man City to overcome a -1.25 Asian Handicap and I don’t think Wigan’s defence will be able to prevent a comfortable home win here.
A few shortlist bets to speak of, firstly over at Anfield as Liverpool host Man Utd. United have won only 4 times away this season, whereas Liverpool have lost just twice at home before Dalglish took over. The loss of Vidic and Ferdinand cannot be understated either as these two are a quiet superb central defensive pairing and I am taking Liverpool to overcome a 0 Asian Handicap. Close to being a main bet.
I was undone for a profit last weekend thanks to Carlos Vela’s offside equaliser against Stoke on Monday night although undeterred I am taking on West Brom once again as on Saturday they have a tough fixture away at Birmingham. As Arsenal found out to their cost, Alex McLeish’s men are not to be under-estimated and the -0.25 AH at 2.08 offers a shade of shortlist value.
Finally I want to take on Blackburn’s defence on the road with an over 2.5 goal line involving their trip to Fulham. 79% of all their away games have gone overs and they will miss captain Ryan Nelson this weekend. It’s a shortlist bet as Fulham are not the most adventurous team so does depend on how Mark Hughes approaches the game.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Bolton V Aston Villa. 2.03 188bet
1 pt Man City -1.25 Asian Handicap V Wigan. 1.90 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Wolves V Spurs. 2.10 Pinnacle/Paddy
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Blackburn. 2.16 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Liverpool 0 Asian Handicap V Man Utd. 2.09 Pinnacle
1 pt Birmingham -0.25 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 2.08 Bet365/12Bet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
*Odds given were correct as time of bet release at the SBC Blog
Just to clarify, although we have members and some tipsters providing some free tips and systems, we are primarily a review service. Please dont expect miracles or read too much into this experiment!
3. A Sporting Chance
Scott Armstrong is The Sportsman who provides his regular expert betting advice on a range of sports such as Darts, Racing & Football. Each week via this column you can find his latest betting insight and expect some advice in fairly untapped markets – his speciality!
The Cheltenham festival is looming fast and I have advised two selections this week and below is the advice sent out to members. My only other advised account bet for the festival was Peddlers Cross back in August, to win the Champion Hurdle @ 20-1.
MEDERMIT each-way @ 4-1 for Arkle on 15th March, William Hill, Coral, Boylesports.
My initial impression with Medermit was that he would require more of a stamina test than the 2 miles on offer in the Arkle. He has also been a monkey refusing to play the game when heavy odds on at Huntingdon but in a bigger field at a sharper pace at Cheltenham, a track he loves, he will show his true colours. Alan King’s charge has a good turn of speed and likely ground of good to soft will be of no hindrance. Regarding the dangers I like Ghizao but don’t believe Finian’s Rainbow has offered enough to justify being the same odds as Medermit. Medermit’s last two performances in competitive novice chases represent a greater form line than anything Finian’s Rainbow has in the book. Ghizao is a very slick jumper and was particularly impressive in the Grade 2 November Novices Chase and represents a live danger. In summation Medermit took a while to get the hang of fences and indeed was obviously not in love with this new sphere initially but has got his act together and is Alan King’s best chance of a festival success.
ZARKANDAR each-way @ 7-1 for Triumph Hurdle on 18th March, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power, Boylesports, Betfred.
I like the look of Grandouet for the Triumph Hurdle and may yet advise a bet on him, currently best odds of 6-1. Nicky Henderson has won the race for the last two consecutive years and Grandouet obviously holds serious claims. At the front end of the market I am unconvinced by Unaccompanied and I can’t have A Media Luz, even at double figures. Sam Winner has a more obvious chance to get in the frame at the same price. He gained valuable experience in France over the summer and illustrated that in November, powering home to beat Grandouet by 15 lengths in the Triumph Hurdle trial. His last run however in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle two months ago was a major disappointment and you would would need to forgive him that poor show. A stablemate from the Paul Nicholls yard is my selection – Zarkandar. He produced a great performance on Saturday in the Class 1, Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Newbury, the same race that produced last year’s winner Soldatino. Zarkandar travelled menacingly and showed an impressive turn of foot to take the lead at the two furlong pole and importantly with Cheltenham in mind, stoutly resisted Molatof’s challenge in tenacious style on the run-in. At the current odds he represents decent value as an each-way play.
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4. The Winabobatoo Weekender
Winabobatoo provide English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier ratings and systems. Using their own in-house systems to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.
I found some nice priced winners in midweek including Carlisle’s win at Charlton (4.60) and Bury’s win at Shrewsbury (3.20). The Winabobatoo Betting Systems highlighted 11 winners from 17 selections. Let’s hope we can keep the good run going into the weekend.
There seem to be few stand-out bets as value seems a little thin on the ground. I’m going to side with a team that have been very hot lately, although they lost at York on Tuesday. They certainly weren’t outplayed in that game, and should be far too good for this weekend’s opponents.
Tip: Gateshead to win at Altrincham – available with Blue Square at 2.15, generally available at 2.00.
Special Offer:
Last chance to secure one of the 30 places available at Winabobatoo. Join now and get the rest of the season for just £20.
Once all 30 places are filled the offer will end.
Good luck with your betting.
Mike Lindley
5. Putting For Profit
Ian Richards runs Sportsbettingindex.com, a betting portal which includes an odds comparison site, free tips and betting blog – helping the punter for the last 10 years.
WGC – Cadillac Championship Doral
PGA – Puerto Rico Open
Champions – Toshiba Classic
Euro Challenge – Abierto International Columbia
The next WGC event on the calendar takes place this coming week with the format returning to a 72 hole stroke play as opposed to match play and comes from the Doral course in Florida. This will be the fifth time the event takes place, although there had been a PGA tour event from Doral for many years. The four winners probably tell us to look at the favourites/Major winners when you consider they are Els, Mickelson, Ogilvy and Woods, although with the top Americans seemingly in the doldrums there could well be some value to be had slightly lower down the pecking order. Last year was quite interesting in that only one American actually broke into the top ten so it could also be interesting seeing how a top American market is priced up.
On the other hand, the three winners of the Puerto Rico Open – Derek Lamely, Michael Bradley and Greg Kraft are hardly what one would call household names! It is a bit difficult to give much of a clue as to what sort of player is likely to win, but the players all think that the Trump International course is very much like playing in Florida and the wind will definitely be a factor as it is situated on the coast.
6. Testing The Fink Tank
Dan Jones from SBC has been testing out the free football Fink Tank ratings all season with promising results so far. Each week via this column he highlights the latest value bets according to the ratings.
Here are the latest value bets according to the latest Fink Tank Ratings. You can find some background on this test here.
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model.
For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.
For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Club could help you.
7. The Friday Freebie
Well it is not long now until the biggest sporting event of the year gets underway, no I don’t mean Reading in the FA Cup Quarter Finals against Man City (although that is big enough for me!). No the Cheltenham Festival 2011 and as always bet72.com will be right in the thick of the action bringing you all the news, views, tips and offers from Prestbury Park.
In fact the offers have started already, with Paddypower and Boylesports first to announce deals for Day One. So we have just added this year’s section to the site, with anything and everything you will need and these will increase daily the closer we get to the 15th (so the link below is well worth a bookmark).
http://bet72.com/cheltenham2011/
Away from the GeeGees it has been great to see March Madness kick in and we have had a sudden wave of bookmakers increasing (yes you did read it correctly), increasing their free bet offers. So now is a great time to jump onboard and earn yourself a few extra £’s (or €’s) ready for reinvestment in all those lovely Cheltenham deals!
My general advice at this time of year is to hold fire on any of the “big high street” name bookmakers who carry horse racing if you are planning on joining them, as hopefully this time next week our Cheltenham page will be overflowing with bigger sign up deals from all the big racing bookies ready for the 15th for these but we have some other notable improvers for March.
What a great way to start the month!
Have a profitable weekend.
Darren Hall – bet72.com – No Risk. No Catch. Just Good Maths.
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