The Weekend Wager from Secret Betting Club

Posted on April 1, 2011 by Darren Hall

1. Mike Says..

In this column, Secret Betting Club co-editor and professional gambler Mike Bishop discusses some of the weeks most topical betting issues.

It’s the first day of the month and this means but one thing – our latest SBC Issue has just been released, which is now up to #59 – just 1 month short of our 5 year anniversary!

When we sit down each month at our Issue planning meetings, the goal is to always make each new one better than the last and I definitely think we have succeeded this month with a bumper crop of articles and reviews.

Free Tennis & Football Advice

One of our feature tipster reviews this month focused on an excellent looking free service that we have been monitoring since 2010. I would really recommend those of you keen on all things free betting wise (who isn’t!) to check this site out while it remains so readily available.

The standard of profit from this tipster would put a lot of paid for services to shame, as they have picked up 209 pts profit from just 873 pts staked over 353 bets in total since June 2010. This makes their profit on turnover a fantastic 23.94%, which means that for every £100 you stake, you win £123.94 back including stake.

What’s more the guy who runs the site has a background in high-level finance and so really knows how to maximise your staking on his bets. His easy to follow percentage based staking suggestion would have grown your own starting bank a whopping 602% since June last year when he started!

These figures are naturally great but there are some concerns about the service, which we directly explore in our exclusive review (no-one has reported back on this tipster). These concerns are not enough to stop you profiting from their advice but it’s well worth understanding how best to follow this service. Full details are in our review in Issue 59.

Horses To Follow Lists

You may recall in this column before Cheltenham I highlighted the article we had just published for members on the top jockeys to follow (and also to avoid) at both that festival and in racing in general.

Well to expand on this theme, this month we publish a superb guest article from regular SBC contributor – ‘Piecost’ on how he has fared following 3 different ‘Horses to Follow’ lists over the past NH season.
Piecost has been regularly sharing his progress on our forum over the NH racing months and the final figures indicate he has hit upon a fantastic source of profits!

To explain briefly, horses to follow products are basically lists of up and coming horses to keep an eye on from the start of the racing season. The 3 lists Piecost tracked this season ranged in price from £7.99 to £35 and he followed the highlighted horses from all 3 to £1 level stakes throughout the season.

The end result?

He ended up backing 265 horses over the course of the season and made a profit of 64.38 pts.

Not bad for an outlay of £67.99 for the 3 lists and at a simple £20 stakes, that’s a clear profit of £1219.61.

You can read more about Piecost and his horses to follow research in Issue 59, which you can pick up instantly as soon as you join us at the Secret Betting Club.

The cost of joining us equates to just 19p a day and with our full money back guarantee if not satisfied, you can join us with full confidence that if you find us not to your taste – you won’t lose out
(Although we only offer this is we are very confident you will enjoy our service!)

Until next week…

Mike Bishop

The Latest Tipsters, Systems & Strategies Revealed

The very latest issue of the Secret Betting Club newsletter is out NOW and features everything you need to know about making money betting including…

The ‘Marmite’ horse racing tipping & information service that has returned £37.80 for every £100 staked since it launched. Some love it, some hate it, so this months in depth review is a must read.
Our final word on the All By The Book racing system. Does it make a profit? And if so, what are the real risks with this system? Read the truth about it through our independent review.
The latest stats on our free racing system – the ‘4 Pronged Attack’ basic system that each new subscriber to SBC has access to. Winners this month included Al Feroz at 25/1, Alarazi at 14/1 and Junior at 7/1 amongst others.
Ever hit a losing run and given up just before things recover? Our guide to betting returns helps put winning and losing runs into perspective.

2. Mike’s Football Bets

Mike analyses the forthcoming football betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value. This is part of a season-long experiment to see the likely returns from such an approach and to build up a public record.

Finally back with Premier League action after the inescapably dull International friendlies in midweek, where for once I find myself agreeing with Sir Alex that they should be scrapped all together. If I was a bookie I would love these games as they are so hard to call and uncompetitive yet high profile – perfect for helping build that bookmaker pension fund.

Thankfully though, there seems to be a whole host of good value bets on offer this weekend, starting down at Upton Park where I think the 1.92 about 3 or more goals looks to worth an interest. West Ham’s home games for the past 2 seasons have gone overs roughly 62% of the time, whilst United away have seen overs in 73% this season (47% last). I am far from convinced about the Hammers defence and I fear they will struggle to cope with the attacking thrust down the flanks with Antonio Valencia back fit to join Nani out wide. Odds of 1.92 suggest the chance of overs is 52%, whereas I make it closer to 60%.

Wigan have a reputation for 2 things – eating pies and low scoring games but yet they are 11th in the table for goals scored and conceded this season and in their home games against the top 4 have let in 14 and scored only 2 (no idea where they stand in the pie consumption league table!). They face Spurs who themselves have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of games away this year and I make the chances of over 2.5 goals around 55%, whereas the bookies have priced this up at 2.10 – a percentage chance of just 47.6%.

There is evidence to suggest that Stuart Holden was the most effective midfielder in the Premier League this season and Bolton are certainly going to miss him after his horror injury against Man Utd last time out. I have fancied the trotters all season long in a number of bets but I think they will have their work cut out without Holden away at Birmingham who I am backing with an 0 Asian Handicap at 1.83. Bolton have actually only won 2 away games all season, whereas Birmingham have lost only 4 in total at home. I make the home win % chance considerably higher than the away win % chance, so with a draw returning our money and decent odds, some value here.

The bookies have cottoned on to the fact that Blackpool’s games will always feature lots of goals under Holloway and as such there is next to no value in the over markets these days. Games involving the Tangerines have seen 105 goals this season, compared to just the 66 involving Fulham, who they travel to face this weekend. We should see a very contrasting game here with Fulham’s rigid 4-4-2 up against Blackpools 4-3-3 deriative and I fancy the away team with a +1 Asian Handicap at 2.04. Fulham have won just 3 out of 11 games at home by more than 1 goal, whereas Blackpool despite their gung-ho approach have lost just 3 out of 13 by more than 1 goal against non top 5 sides.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Man Utd 1.92* Ladbrokes
1 pt Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wigan V Spurs. 2.10 Paddy Power/Stan James
1 pt Blackpool +1 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 2.04 Canbet/SBObet/12bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Wolves. 1.96 Pinnacle/12bet

*All odds correct at time of release on SBC Blog

Just to clarify, although we have members and some tipsters providing some free tips and systems, we are primarily a review service. Please dont expect miracles or read too much into this experiment!

3. A Sporting Chance

Scott Armstrong is The Sportsman who provides his regular expert betting advice on a range of sports such as Darts, Racing & Football. Each week via this column you can find his latest betting insight and expect some advice in fairly untapped markets – his speciality!

I generally price up the weekend football matches on a Thursday after the midweek games are done and dusted. It would be highly unusual for me to find more than three matches in the whole UK card where the prices look askew in the match market odds. That’s why I mostly operate in subsidiary markets as the layers offer poor lines in comparison with true odds. There is the option of Asian handicap’s which can offer more value but I would only take this route if I fancied the underdog to do well. It can be most frustrating when needing a favourite at home to win -2 when they have obviously given up on scoring more goals when sitting 2-0 up with 15 minutes to go and a big midweek European match lying in wait. The subsidiary markets are where the value lies.

A quick look at ten years of previous years of results tells me where I have been profitable and unprofitable over the years. I take out all the unprofitable markets over that period of time when looking at the weekends matches. That leaves me primarily with the following markets which have been winning ones over the years: goals lines, corners lines and bookings lines.

Lets have a quick perusal individually at a few of those specific markets with the weekends matches in mind.

Over 2.5 goals has been a clarion call for Blackpool with their gung-ho spirit in the Premier League. Unfortunately they play Fulham at the weekend and the London side tend to keep things tight. Manchester United over the years have been good for goals but the price is often very short on over 2.5 with the expectation of the layers that they can record a comfortable success. Upton Park has been good for goals but will the price be worthwhile? Of interest this weekend is the fact that there has been a goal in the last 15 minutes of Wigan’s home matches in five of the last seven. On Saturday they face Spurs and in nine of their last eleven away matches there has been a goal from 75 to 90 minutes. Around the evens mark a goal in the last 20 minutes could be a shrewd investment.

Under 2.5 goals is always worth a secondary look when Stoke are at home. With Chelsea being away to the “Potters” the layers might over estimate the chances of goals and a check on the price for under 2.5 goals is suggested.

With regards to corners totals Aston Villa are the Premier League corners kings and any match they participate the corners line must be looked at. This Saturday they are away to Everton who are averaging 7.08 corners per match at home, the total corners market should go on the shortlist awaiting layers prices. Manchester City over the past few years have proved fruitful to follow to gain most corners at home. To obtain a working man’s price though you have to look at playing them on a handicap and they have only covered -2 in 4 from 11 home matches this term.

For low card counts head for Fulham. 73% of their home matches have gone under 3.5 cards this season and in Blackpool’s away matches 75% of their games have went under 3.5 cards.

If your old school and still punting only on match odds markets it may be time to re-educate yourself in the stats based subsidiary markets to reach the top of the betting class.

The A to Z of Tipster & System Reviews

Check out the new look Secret Betting Club website, which now features a full A to Z list of many of the tipsters we have reviewed and analysed.

Our latest reviews include: All By The Book, Bet Advisor, On The Nose, Northern Monkey, Green Sports Bets, Adys Lay of The Day, NFL Linebacker, Bet Devil, Packed Pockets, Bet Soft Pro & Bettor Logic.

There is also plenty written about Football Value, Signature Racing Tips, Simplebet, The Market Examiner, Herbie Fogg, Sportyy, Tipster 365, The Punter Club, Lee Bollingbroke & The Nagman

If you cant find a review on the service you are interested in, simply enter their name into the search the site box – chances are we have featured them in the past.

Visit here for more info: Secret Betting Club

4. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo provide English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier ratings and systems. Using their own in-house systems to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

Away teams priced 2.75 and above are a proven profit area for the Winabobatoo ratings. The games flagged by the Winabobatoo Betting Systems for away teams in this price group this season have made a profit of +41.65 points to one point level stakes bets, which is 12.32% ROI.

This weekend Colchester fit the bill to win at Sheff Wed and look worth a wager at 3.50, currently available with Victor Chandler and Unibet. The Winabob members took the 3.75 that was available on Thursday. I wouldn’t advise that you take less than 3.50 but hopefully this price will still be available by the time you read this.

Good luck to everyone,

Mike Lindley

Visit The Winabobatoo Website

5. Putting For Profit

Ian Richards runs Sportsbettingindex.com, a betting portal which includes an odds comparison site, free tips and betting blog – helping the punter for the last 10 years.

PGA Tour – US Masters
Only the one event on next week and it’s the first Major of the year – the Masters from Augusta National. With Majors I tend to bet differently and build up a portfolio of bets leading up to the event, although betting antepost on golf can be fraught with danger with potential loss of form or injury, but sometimes the price makes it worthwhile. The Masters is quite a good event to bet ante post in, as it has a limited field, most of whom have already gained entry. It’s played at the same venue at the same time each year so it’s not such a lottery! The bets I have listed below are those which I have struck over the last four months with prices at the time – better prices were also taken on the exchanges and some of the prices are still fairly similar. It might encourage you to build a portfolio, if nothing else, for the rest of the Majors this season and beyond. There is every chance I will add a few more bets so keep an eye on the blog.

20th December – Matt Kuchar 80/1 e/w
What I couldn’t understand was why the man who won the money list in 2010 was 80/1? Matt Kuchar really has been incredibly consistent for a long time – ever since he hit form in October last year when he won at Atunyote. His Major record isn’t exceptional but isn’t that bad – last year his finishes read 24/6/27/10 and 2010 was the first time he had played the Masters since 2002 when he missed the cut. He played Augusta twice as an amateur making the cut both times and in 1998 he was low amateur. Last year’s 24th place finish was achieved in difficult circumstances as he played the first two rounds with Tiger on his return to competition. He says he feels at home at Augusta as he went to Georgia Tech. He has maintained his strong form all year and is now generally a 33/1 shot. Expect a strong performance.

25th February Ryan Moore 125/1 e/w
Moore played Augusta twice as an amateur – in 2003 he made the cut and then in 2005 he finished 13th and was impressively first in the all round stats for the week! Last year he played for the first time in five years and was the best putter all week, closing with his best round at Augusta of 68 to finish 14th. I think with that experience under his belt and a clear affinity for the place, he will go well this year.

March 10th YE Yang 100/1 e/w
Yang is in much the same form he was in before he won the US PGA Championship in 2009 and is a player who is constantly underrated by the bookmakers – I have won more money on him than any other golfer. He has a solid Masters record and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he could build on last year’s 8th place finish.

March 30th Trevor Immelman 125/1 e/w
I have had an eye on Immelman for the last few months after his coach said he had never seen him swinging the club so well, but I did wait to see him showing that on the golf course before biting the bullet. Since his win in 2008 he has finished 20th and 14th to add to his 5th in 2005, so is clearly very much at home at Augusta.

Your 5 Free Gifts When Joining SBC

As soon as you join us here at the Secret Betting Club we will give you totally free, 5 fantastic betting methods and systems to help you make money betting including…

The 4 Pronged Attack Racing System. Totally free to follow, this method was one of the very best racing systems out there in 2010. You can now also get the system qualifiers sent via email free!
The ‘When Odds Are Odd’ Systems – 3 different systems that show you how to capitalise on bookmaker mistakes.
Our new Golf Betting Strategy, which in just 6 months has made a 74 pt profit from just 23 golf tournaments (a Return on Investment of over 57%!).

6. Testing The Fink Tank

Dan Jones from SBC has been testing out the free football Fink Tank ratings all season with promising results so far. Each week via this column he highlights the latest value bets according to the ratings.

Here are the latest value bets according to the latest Fink Tank Ratings. You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model.

For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Club could help you.

7. The Friday Freebie

Let’s get everyone off to an instantly profitable start to the new month!

Anyone following us on TWITTER (@bet72 by the way) will have seen recently we have been pulling profits from a number of unlikely sources. Perhaps one of the most unlikely source (and fast becoming a steady drip feed for bet72ers) is the pools company, VERNONS

In its heyday “The Pools” was played by over 10 million people, making fortune for winners as families huddled around their radio or TV every Saturday teatime to find out if they had the magic 8 score draws. Well now they have relaunched themselves into the 21st century and are falling over themselves with free offers, we have had 3 this week alone (that has been over £40 in profit for literally a few minutes clicking), and made money from them all on low risk games or equally could be used as a risk free punt towards some even bigger prizes.

So if you want a steady stream of free low risk offers then do get signed up.

Initially you get a free £20 bonus once you have deposited and wagered the first £20. This can be wagered on any of their games, blackjack, roulette, deal or no deal and even top trumps (yes you can play that online now too!). Just email info@bet72.com if you want any strategies ideas for any of the games on the site.

After that you will get a £20 bonus, £10 to be used on £10 on lottery / football pools section of the site and the other on ANY of their games.

With one tenner you can play any game in the Lottery / Pools / Bingo see this as a free little bonus punt, you never know, and few bet72ers have had a few tasty wins already, so it could be you (as they say!).
With the other £10 bonus you can go back and play on any game in the Instant Win section so again all the usual low risk suspects can be used and you just need to turn it over once to withdraw.

Then withdraw your profits and your £10 punt on lotto / pools will still be intact, brilliant. Then watch you inboxes for more of the same on a regular basis (and of course feel free to email if you want any advice on playing the future offers for profit too).

Here is the link to get started:

VERNONS

That’s all from me, have a profitable weeked.

Darren Hall – www.bet72.com – No Risk. No Catch. Just Good Maths.

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