The Weekend Wager

Welcome to this the latest Weekend Wager free betting column produced courtesy of the team at the Secret Betting Club

Each and every Friday we bring together some of the finest betting experts to give you some of the best tips, advice and guidance to help you out with your next 7 days betting.

CONTENTS

1. Dan Says
2. The Next Week In Football Betting
3. The Winabobatoo Weekender
4. Skeeve’s Non League
5. A Little Birdie Says

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1. Dan Says..

In this column, Secret Betting Club co-editor and professional gambler Dan Jones discusses some of the weeks most topical betting issues.

Just what is value betting?
How much exactly would you pay for a plain old cup of coffee at Starbucks?

• Nothing, I’ll make may own and I like tea anyway!
• £2.00
• £5.00
• £20.00

Unless you’re particularly desperate, most people will say either A or B. We all have similar ideas of the value of a cup of coffee and so do Starbucks. Charging £20.00 for a cuppa will soon put them out of business, unless another Icelandic Volcano disrupts coffee supplies to the UK! But what has this got to do with betting?

It’s all about value…

The biggest transition I see in SBC members is when they stop thinking in just terms of what will win and start thinking about value.

Every bet offered up by a bookmaker or on Betfair has a chance of winning. As we saw with last year’s Grand National, even the 100/1 shots can romp home once in a while. The trick is to be able to have your own price on something that you can compare to the bookies.

“Price doesn’t matter as long as it wins”

I often read this on certain…ahem betting exchange forums and in relation to laying “It doesn’t matter what price it is, as long as it loses”.

Both of these sentences are utter nonsense. Price is everything.

How to Price Up a Bet

A good way to price up a bet is to convert the odds on offer into the implied probability of that bet winning. Implied probability is how often that bet is expected to win given average luck.

To work this out take 1 and divide it by the decimal odds on offer then times by 100.

For example evens is 2.0 in decimal odds.
1 divided by 2 is 0.5
X 100 = 50%.

So a bet priced at evens should win roughly 50% of the time.

0% means something will never happen.
100% means something will always happen.

Percentage Chance of Winning

The second part of value is to come up with your prediction of its chances of winning. If you think there’s actually a 75% chance of that betting, then you have a value bet.

To convert 75% back into odds, you divide 100 by 75 = 1.33.

In other words, you’re betting on what should be a 1.33 shot and you’re getting 2.00.

Doesn’t mean it will win, but take 100 bets like that and you will make money.

Naturally this assumes your estimation is more accurate than the bookmakers which is easier said than done.

Here’s some more examples to get you thinking:

• Man Utd are 1.50 vs Arsenal. The bookies imply a 67% chance of victory. Is there value there?
• Sunderland are 3.2 away to Hull. This implies a 31% chance of them winning. Is there value there?
• Jensen Button is 8.0 to retain the F1 title. This implies a 13% chance of him winning. Is that value?
• Betfair has odds of 1.71 on there being a Hung Parliament. This implies a 58% chance. Is that value?

Here at the Secret Betting Club, we work hard to provide our members with the best ways to spot value. The easiest way to do this is to have someone do the hard work for you and tap into their expertise.

This is why we proof and review dozens of highly profitable tipsters for you to choose from.
There’s not just tipsters though as we also help our members with regular education articles such as knowing how and when to bet on multiples.

To find out more visit www.secretbettingclub.com

Dan Jones

2. The Next Week in Football Betting

Mike analyses the forthcoming football betting opportunities over the next week and highlights a few bets he feels offer value.

Its hotting up nicely in the Premier League this weekend with the race for the title, 4th and relegation all likely to become a lot clearer come Sunday night.

I took in last weeks Manchester Derby in Sky’s new 3D format at my local pub, which was a terrible game, no matter what dimension you watched it in. With that in mind I cant have the best odds of 1.5 with Paddy Power on Man Utd to beat a resurgent Spurs this weekend. What I do think we will see is goals as United have to go for victory, but with only a best 1.7 being offered on over 2.5 goals, this does look a bit Danny Devito (on the short side).

My interest lies over at Stamford Bridge where Stoke are the visitors and they are a huge 22/1 with SBObet to take all 3 points. Chelsea should win this but the Potters are no pushovers and the odds of 1.86 on them with a 2.25 Asian Handicap is of interest to me. Only if they lose by a 3 goal margin or more do we lose here.

I must admit to also being tempted by Arsenal who are 2.02 with 5 Dimes to beat Man City at home on Saturday Evening. The Wengerboys have won 14 of their 17 home games this season, whereas City have won only 6 out of 17 away from home. After watching both teams last week though it would take a real leap of faith to back either of them, especially the home outfit given the fact Fabianski is in goal. Expect City to really test him with plenty of shots from distance and crosses, although he will probably struggle as it is simply kicking any passes back that come his way.

Turning to the battle to beat the drop and its hard to see either of Burnley or Hull picking up enough points to avoid relegation. Last year we saw the same thing with the teams going down doing so with a whimper.

Hull are a team full of Championship players and they host Sunderland who are in good form, having won 4 of their last 8 games. As bad as the Black Cats have been away from home, they should have enough to get at least a draw here. Especially with the likes of Bent in cracking form (8 goals in last 8 games) and goalie Craig Gordon finally showing why they paid £9 million for him. I like the +0.25 Asian Handicap on Sunderland with Paddy Power at a tasty looking 1.91. We win half if its a draw and collect in full if the Black Cats take all 3 points.

Whatever you bet on this coming week, good luck!

Mike

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3. The Winabobatoo Weekender

Winabobatoo are English Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premier betting experts. Using their own excellent football system to often ‘Win a bob or two’ for their members, they are penning an exclusive Weekend Football Guide to help with your bets every Saturday and Sunday.

Winabobatoo Weekend Football Guide

Notts County won last week, but Fulham failed to score against Wolves, so our double lost unfortunately. The recommended bets to my members found 7 winners from 10, so let’s hope I can flag two winners out of two for you today.

The season is drawing to a close with just three weekends to go. We can sometimes get strange results when teams have nothing to play for but I strongly believe that contrary to much criticism received by players, that they are professionals and do their best almost all of the time. Having nothing to play for can often mean they play without fear and can actually perform better. The bookmakers generally reduce the odds of the “must win” teams because they know they will take money on those.

Today’s featured matches are Norwich to beat Gillingham, and Doncaster to beat Scunthorpe.
Norwich are promoted and a win here will see them lift the title. I’m sure they will want to impress in front of their home fans. Gillingham have been woeful on their travels and haven’t won away all season, conceding 44 goals along the way.

Scunthorpe ensured their Championship survival in midweek, so the pressure is off them now. Doncaster are in the top half of the table and have done well this season. Scunthorpe have been far better at home than away and have leaked 48 goals in 22 away games. Doncaster should win this game around 57% of the time, and their odds are 2.10, which makes them a good risk.

Recommended double: Norwich to beat Gillingham at 1.50, and Doncaster to beat Scunthorpe at 2.10. The double is available at 3.15 at the time of writing, with Ladbrokes.

I estimate the true odds of both games winning to be around 2.61, or 38%. The long-term yield at odds of 3.15 suggests we should get 120 points back for every 100 staked.

Good luck until next time.

Mike Lindley

PS. Membership to my Winabobatoo service is currently full for the current season. If you wish to join the waiting list for next season then please visit the website. The sooner you register, the sooner you will be offered a place. There are only 300 places available.

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4. Skeeve’s Non League

Skeeve is our resident non-league football betting expert who each week shares his best advice for this weekend’s domestic lower league action.

Hi everybody,

Another season is at it’s end – we still have a few play-off semi-finals, a couple of play-off finals and an FA Trophy final left of course, but as far as the regular season is concerned, that’s it folks. Let’s take a look at the stats for these free Weekend Wager picks:

FREE	PICKS	STAKED	RETURNED	W-V-L	PROFIT	ROI
	27	108	127.88	16-1-10	+19.88	18.4%

Not bad at all, but it could’ve been a lot better if April didn’t turn out to be such a horror month. I don’t like to use the ‘l’ word when it comes to serious betting (or, if you want, investing), but I was at +73 points profit for the season on April 2 (12.6% ROI) and now, three horror Saturdays later, I’m at +40 (6.3% ROI). Bad runs are perfectly normal, just like the good ones (you have to take a long-term perspective if you want to be succesful at this crazy job and my long-term results speak for themselves, that’s +503 points profit since December 2006, 14.1% long-term ROI; after an amazing 2009 that produced +200 points profit and a 25.9% ROI you simply have to expect a bit slower year), but when the bad run happens at the end of the season, you can either try and chase the losses (which I’m too old and too experienced for) on the last regular day of the season and in the play-offs – or try and learn as much as you can from that particular losing run and come up with another set of adjustments for next season (not to mention that I always change the size of my point/unit after a bad run – not by making it smaller of course – and that always proved to be profitable).

It wasn’t just a few missed penalties that would’ve turned more than a couple of OVER 2.5 GOALS bets into winning bets, a couple of red cards and two-goal leads turning into frustrating draws – I’ve made mistakes and I can’t wait to get my revenge on the bookmakers (I love fresh starts as some of you already know). But, I would be a bloody fool if I tried to force it and get all these lost points back by mid-May. Play-off games are the trickiest of all and if I do get involved, it will be a couple of average-stake bets only. And then, in August, it starts all over again and I’ll be smarter than ever, more experienced than ever and working harder than ever.

The membership and the waiting list are both closed btw – when I decide to reopen the waiting list, you’ll be the first to know. In fact, when I do reopen the waiting list, it will be open for SBC members only. Take care.

cheers,
skeeve

Visit Skeeve’s Website
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5. A Little Birdie Says…

Roger Green of the Birdie Golf tipster service is the latest contributor to the Weekend Wager. Previously supplying advice under the Tipping Legends banner, he has been providing golf tips since 1987 and has spent his entire life working in the golf industry.

Importance of checking tee times before placing golf bets

It is very important to check tee times for two reasons, and both are equally important.
The first reason is the start time as I will explain.

With all stroke play tournaments, players play in 3 balls in the opening two rounds. The same 3 ball play together in the first two rounds. A 3 ball having a very early start on day one, will have a late start on day two.

Many tournaments tee off at 7.0am (local time) or even earlier on the second day if the first round was not completed on day one.

Depending on which continent the tournament is being played in, early morning starters will be playing on slower greens (due to overnight moisture or dew). As the day lengthens and the sun gets high, then greens dry out and get markedly faster.

Early morning starters do have the advantage of spike free greens, particularly immediately around the pins. This coupled with the fact that the weather is often calmer earlier in the day, means these players generally have a good chance of posting a good score.

A player shooting 5 or 6 under early in the day is very often at or near the top of the leader board at the end of the day. This is of greater significance in the UK where the wind can get stronger during the day.

The second reason to look at the tee times is to actually check the three ball. Who is playing with who?

A rookie from the Challenge tour is unlikely to play to his best if stood on the first tee with Tiger Woods & Phil Mickleson!

The playing speed of players can have crucial impact on each golfers game. Continuous slow play by one player in a 3 ball can cause frustration, followed by lack of concentration and perhaps mistakes.

So before you place your bet, it may help if you :-

(1) Check the tee times to see the start times for the first two days and also note the composition of the 3 balls
(2) Short term and 4 day weather forecast should be checked

Both of these facts are so important if you intend betting on the outcome of a three ball (match betting).

If you require further information or details of subscriptions etc please do not hesitate to contact me at birdiegolf@live.co.uk

Roger Green

That’s all for today! Have a great weekend…

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